Garcia's Blog XLII- Card Chances
Posted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 4:30 pmHey guys,
As all of you know, Baseball Online can sometimes be a difficult game. There is so much more to it than just drafting your favorite players. Even though your team may all be all-stars, remember that everyone else's will be too! Just drafting the players with the best stats may not guarantee a winning team. The true value of a player is not necessarily his real-life batting average, home runs, or ERA. It's the card numbers.
Before you can calculate card numbers, first you must know how to read a card. We can use Yastrzemski and Drysdale as the examples. For each at-bat the Baseball Online game engine simulates a dice roll. The first "roll" determines whether the result will be found on the batters card or the pitchers card while the second "roll" of two dice determines the result.
Using the cards above, if the first roll was a 1 and the second roll a 4, the 1 corresponds to the "1" column on Yaz's card and then the 4 is the result. Looking at 1-4, Yaz homers! While first rolls of 1, 2, and 3 are always on the batters cards, rolls of 4, 5, or 6 correspond to columns on a pitchers card. Now with that basic rule down, while viewing some cards you can approximately tell the value of a card just by looking at it. Lots of BOLD results on a batters card is obviously good while the same on a pitchers card is trouble. However not every result has the same chance of happening. Remember two dice are "rolled" to determine the actual result. A home run on a 7 result is much more probably than a home run on a 2 result.
ROLL CHANCES
2 1
3 2
4 3
5 4
6 5
7 6
8 5
9 4
10 3
11 2
12 1
Each column actually has 36 (not 11) chances so each card has 108 chances on it. Looking at Yaz's card and by using the chart above we can quickly tell that he as 13 BB chances vs a LHP and 18 BB chances vs a RHP. These numbers come out to 12% vs LHP (13/108) and 17% vs RHP. Facing Drysdale, a RHP who only has 5 BB chances vs a LHB, the total chance of Yaz talking a walk comes to 11%.
Now calculating every players card in a set is a daunting task but knowing the value of a players card is a tremendous asset while playing. Veteran managers can win season after season using this data, adjusting the players based on their ballpark and others in the league, and of course using defense and balancing the salary cap. For new users, these numbers should be the first thing you look at to try and calculate a player's value.
My favorite way to evaluate cards after knowing the chances is by using Dean Carrano's Offense vs Defense chart.
New users (and old users) should also use the forum more to collect ideas on how to improve your team! There are so many people out there willing to help evaluate rosters but they need to be asked first! The strategy thread is a great place to ask questions as well as the specific game forums.
That's all I have for this week but continue e-mailing us at onlinegamesupport@strat-o-matic.com with blog ideas and any questions you have. Talk to you all again next Thursday!
-Johnmfooz
As all of you know, Baseball Online can sometimes be a difficult game. There is so much more to it than just drafting your favorite players. Even though your team may all be all-stars, remember that everyone else's will be too! Just drafting the players with the best stats may not guarantee a winning team. The true value of a player is not necessarily his real-life batting average, home runs, or ERA. It's the card numbers.
Before you can calculate card numbers, first you must know how to read a card. We can use Yastrzemski and Drysdale as the examples. For each at-bat the Baseball Online game engine simulates a dice roll. The first "roll" determines whether the result will be found on the batters card or the pitchers card while the second "roll" of two dice determines the result.
Using the cards above, if the first roll was a 1 and the second roll a 4, the 1 corresponds to the "1" column on Yaz's card and then the 4 is the result. Looking at 1-4, Yaz homers! While first rolls of 1, 2, and 3 are always on the batters cards, rolls of 4, 5, or 6 correspond to columns on a pitchers card. Now with that basic rule down, while viewing some cards you can approximately tell the value of a card just by looking at it. Lots of BOLD results on a batters card is obviously good while the same on a pitchers card is trouble. However not every result has the same chance of happening. Remember two dice are "rolled" to determine the actual result. A home run on a 7 result is much more probably than a home run on a 2 result.
ROLL CHANCES
2 1
3 2
4 3
5 4
6 5
7 6
8 5
9 4
10 3
11 2
12 1
Each column actually has 36 (not 11) chances so each card has 108 chances on it. Looking at Yaz's card and by using the chart above we can quickly tell that he as 13 BB chances vs a LHP and 18 BB chances vs a RHP. These numbers come out to 12% vs LHP (13/108) and 17% vs RHP. Facing Drysdale, a RHP who only has 5 BB chances vs a LHB, the total chance of Yaz talking a walk comes to 11%.
Now calculating every players card in a set is a daunting task but knowing the value of a players card is a tremendous asset while playing. Veteran managers can win season after season using this data, adjusting the players based on their ballpark and others in the league, and of course using defense and balancing the salary cap. For new users, these numbers should be the first thing you look at to try and calculate a player's value.
My favorite way to evaluate cards after knowing the chances is by using Dean Carrano's Offense vs Defense chart.
New users (and old users) should also use the forum more to collect ideas on how to improve your team! There are so many people out there willing to help evaluate rosters but they need to be asked first! The strategy thread is a great place to ask questions as well as the specific game forums.
That's all I have for this week but continue e-mailing us at onlinegamesupport@strat-o-matic.com with blog ideas and any questions you have. Talk to you all again next Thursday!
-Johnmfooz