Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

This may seem obvious, but for me I just had this light bulb go on in my head.

Doesn't it make sense, with a 4 man rotation of SP* starters, to start your best stud starter in game 2, not game 1?

Reason - if your other starters are not as strong, and if you expect to go into your bullpen (other than for your stud starter), then if you start your stud in games 2 and 6, he provides the best opportunity to refresh your bullpen during a 7 game series.

By contrast, if you start your stud in game 1, and he gets a complete game, so what? He helps your bullpen out way more by getting complete games in games 2 and 6.

What do you think?

I like your logic. The exception I could see is if you prefer your ace to pitch in the game 5 stadium instead of the game 6 stadium based on righty/lefty considerations.

coyote303 wrote:I like your logic. The exception I could see is if you prefer your ace to pitch in the game 5 stadium instead of the game 6 stadium based on righty/lefty considerations.

That's another great point! In a 7 game series, the only pitcher (i.e. in a 4 man rotation) who starts in the same stadium for both starts is the pitcher who starts in game 2 and game 6!

So you're right coyote, you also need to make sure that you like the stadium for that pitcher. If you're on the road for the 1,2,6,7 games, and you don't like the stadium, you might prefer the 1 spot, where game 5 is at home - or maybe the 3 spot, but probably game 1 in that scenario.

I haven't participated in a Play-Offs yet... but wouldn't you want your BEST (STUD) Starter to be available for 3 Starts.. 1-4-7?

or does SOM's spacing of games not allow that ? (No off days between games ??)

Exactly. There are no days off during a playoff series. There are 2 days of rest between the end of the regular season and game 1 of the playoffs

There won't be a Game 6 if you lose the series 4-1. Better start your stud in game 1.

I have always had 5 man rotation,#1 starter has to go game one, so you have him for game 6.

dgrish wrote:I haven't participated in a Play-Offs yet... but wouldn't you want your BEST (STUD) Starter to be available for 3 Starts.. 1-4-7?

or does SOM's spacing of games not allow that ? (No off days between games ??)

This isn't possible in online strat. Minimum rest between games is 3 games rest.

paul8210 wrote:There won't be a Game 6 if you lose the series 4-1. Better start your stud in game 1.

I thought about this when I originally read the suggestion. However, if you are down three games to one, you have to win three games in a row and your ace can only pitch in one of them.

Starting your ace in game 2 does make it more likely that you lose a series 4-1 instead of 4-2 (and more likely that you win the series 4-2 instead of 4-1), but it shouldn't reduce your chances to actually win the series. You have less chance to win game 5 but more chance to win game 6. (And, as the OP suggested, having a fresher bullpen may increase your chances.)

It does feel like I may be missing something, so if someone can point out the flaw in this logic, I'd like to hear it!

coyote303 wrote:

paul8210 wrote:There won't be a Game 6 if you lose the series 4-1. Better start your stud in game 1.

I thought about this when I originally read the suggestion. However, if you are down three games to one, you have to win three games in a row and your ace can only pitch in one of them.

Starting your ace in game 2 does make it more likely that you lose a series 4-1 instead of 4-2 (and more likely that you win the series 4-2 instead of 4-1), but it shouldn't reduce your chances to actually win the series. You have less chance to win game 5 but more chance to win game 6. (And, as the OP suggested, having a fresher bullpen may increase your chances.)

It does feel like I may be missing something, so if someone can point out the flaw in this logic, I'd like to hear it!

if you lose the series 4-1 you're not mathematically alive. If you trail the series 3-2 after starting your stud in game 5, you're mathematically alive, even if Dumbo and Pinhead are pitching games 6 and 7.

If you're mathematically alive after game 5 the beer tastes better and you have some kind of chance, albeit bleak, of winning the series.

Keeping the probability alive after game 5, albeit barely breathing, increases your chance of winning the series.

Evaluating the probability of winning the series before it starts might make you want to pitch your stud in games 2 and 6, but, re-evaluating the probability after each game is played might make you wish you had started your stud in games 1 and 5, in order to keep the Game 6 and Game 7 probability of winning the series > 0%.

So, it's not a simple question of "Do I want to lose the series 4-2 or 4-1? It doesn't matter either way, so, I'll start my stud in Games 2 and 6." It's more a question of "What must I do to keep the probability alive of winning the series?"