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Does position in lineup affect productivity?

PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2015 12:02 pm
by wahlerpc
This may seem like an obvious question, or that there is an obvious "Yes" answer, but could someone please give me the benefit of their experiences?

Edwin Encarnacion would normally hit 3rd, 4th, or 5th in my lineup. however, after 147 abs, he is hitting .166 with almost no power production. I have been hitting him 7th to 9th in my lineup lately, and it has not changed his anemic production.

My question is, do you think that if I place him in his normal 3-5 slot and leave him there, that he will begin to hit, and will that happen any sooner than if I leave him in the 7-9 slots where he deserves based on my season so far? Does hitting him so low in the lineup DECREASE his chances of starting to hit?

I'll appreciate any incites. Thanks,
Ed

Re: Does position in lineup affect productivity?

PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2015 12:05 pm
by Mumford
Can't tell what the problem is without a link to your team.

Re: Does position in lineup affect productivity?

PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2015 6:47 pm
by wavygravy2k
It's all about the computer generated dice rolls and getting them to roll in your favor. I suppose productivity could be affected if guys are intentionally walked often, though.

I'm sure the algorithm that generates the random numbers in the game engine is legitimate but there's always some uncertainty that it's not as reliable as using actual dice. With this in mind, I tend to make minor tweaks to my lineup at times.

Re: Does position in lineup affect productivity?

PostPosted: Mon Feb 02, 2015 11:23 pm
by l.strether
wavygravy2k wrote:I'm sure the algorithm that generates the random numbers in the game engine is legitimate but there's always some uncertainty that it's not as reliable as using actual dice. With this in mind, I tend to make minor tweaks to my lineup at times.

Mumford is right; you should post a link to your team. The players you're batting before and after Encarnacion, and could bat before and after him, are vital to determining where you should bat him. Also, Encarncacion is negative clutch against lefties on a 2-7 and against righties on a 3-5, so you'll need to factor that into your lineup. Many claim you should avoid batting negative clutch hitters fifth. I don't know if that's true, but some smart managers claim it is.

Finally, there's no reason to believe the SOM game engine is unreliable in producing its dice rolls. A dice reproduction program is a simple one to produce, SOM has been running it for 12 years, and they would be fraudulent to claim it's legitimacy while knowing otherwise. In fact, considering the minute dust and particles real dice accrue, they are much less likely to produce 100% pure random rolls than a computer program unsullied by physical minutiae.

Re: Does position in lineup affect productivity?

PostPosted: Tue Feb 03, 2015 12:59 pm
by wahlerpc
http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/lineups

The lineups I'm using now will probably be revised as the season progresses and my players move more toward their "norms". We have played only 45 games so far. I'm 26-19 so far, my best start yet. I'm in my 5th or 6th season of Strat.

Encarnacion did hit well in last night's series, so perhaps this is the start of his hitting.

I would appreciate any thoughts you might have on my lineups.

Thanks,
Ed

Re: Does position in lineup affect productivity?

PostPosted: Tue Feb 03, 2015 1:24 pm
by coyote303
To say "no" to your original question is not quite accurate because the following can affect a hitter based on where he is in the lineup:

* Having a base runners who are on base and held when he's batting will slightly raise his batting average.
* Having a poor hitter behind a good hitter might increase the number of intentional walks he receives.
* If he has negative clutch, he might get slightly more pop outs depending where he is put in the lineup.

That being said, you're putting way too much angst into where he is in your lineup. Never forget you're dealing with a piece of cardboard (albeit an "electronic" piece of cardboard!). Moving him up or down isn't going to make it more likely to light a fire under him and get him to start hitting.

Of course, what can happen is a manager makes a lineup change and suddenly the "slumping" hitter starts hitting closer to--or perhaps a lot better than--average. So, the manager thinks he has accomplished something by moving him in the lineup. However, the odds of his improving (which were actually quite good since he had done really poorly so far) were pretty much the same if he hadn't been moved in the lineup.

Re: Does position in lineup affect productivity?

PostPosted: Tue Feb 03, 2015 1:25 pm
by l.strether
The site you posted just directed me to my own lineups page. I imagine it will do the same for everybody else.

Re: Does position in lineup affect productivity?

PostPosted: Tue Feb 03, 2015 1:41 pm
by wavygravy2k

Re: Does position in lineup affect productivity?

PostPosted: Tue Feb 03, 2015 1:46 pm
by l.strether
coyote303 wrote:To say "no" to your original question is not quite accurate because the following can affect a hitter based on where he is in the lineup:
* Having a base runners who are on base and held when he's batting will slightly raise his batting average.
* Having a poor hitter behind a good hitter might increase the number of intentional walks he receives.
* If he has negative clutch, he might get slightly more pop outs depending where he is put in the lineup.
That being said, you're putting way too much angst into where he is in your lineup. Never forget you're dealing with a piece of cardboard (albeit an "electronic" piece of cardboard!). Moving him up or down isn't going to make it more likely to light a fire under him and get him to start hitting.

You're not "angsting" too much about where to bat Encarnacion, Wahler. While Encarnacion's lineup slot may not have a major effect on how he bats, it does effect it. The examples Coyote, himself, gave will help maximize his production, even to the point of sometimes "lighting a fire" under him. Lineups and lineup slottings do matter, and maximizing them are vital to a team's success. If they didn't, players could just bat their top players in any lineup for the same result. That simply isn't the case.

Re: Does position in lineup affect productivity?

PostPosted: Tue Feb 03, 2015 2:00 pm
by wahlerpc