Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

I admit that I am a sore loser and I know you are dying to hear why.

I've been playing SOM since the 1965 season. I'm a former professional ballplayer (SF Giants). For the first time, I have joined an introductory SOM fantasy BB League. Before I continue, I have an engineering degree and M.S. degree. I only say this to let you know that I am very familiar with statistics, probability, etc. So, I know a little bit about what I am talking about. I have the baseball knoweldge plus computer programming plus math background. That leads me to a few observations and perhaps I can get help from some of you old pro's.

I'll give you an example. I drafted four quality pitchers (Kevin Brown, Tom Glavin, David Cone, and Curt Schilling). In my 21 game intro league, they collectively made six starts and went 0 for 7. Not only did they lose but they were blown out all seven games. Not only did my four starters get blown out but my closer and top reliever, Trevor Hoffman got blown out too. The numbers were off of the chart. I.E.. Kevin Brown 10 IP, 17H, 4HR, etc. After two starts apiece and blow outs, I dumped all of these guys and got new pitching. I end up with Dennis Eckersley who was the best CL of all Free Agents. I could never get a game close enough to use Eck. All games lost games (12) were blow outs. Not even close. Yes, I used "Aggressive Relief," both for individual and team. I used "Quick Hook" to try and stop the outrageous pitch counts, etc. Nothing worked.

FYI. My starting pitching was so bad that my league leading offense couldn't overcome it. I end up finishing in 4th place. Terrible.

I don't like to lose. I'm a sore loser. I'm especially a sore loser when the game isn't even close to being realistic. The chances of having four quality pitchers losing seven consecutive games by blowout are little to none.

Here's the other bunch of b.s. My team had the most injuries of any other team and it affected my top players. For example.

It's a short league, right? So, I spend the extra $ to draft Mark McGwire because he hits a HR about every 8AB. He goes on a tear and is leading the league in all categories except BA. SOM injures him for a critical three game series. I get him back and have six critical games to go and SOM injures him for the rest of the season (all six games).

My 3B Wade Boggs is leading the league in hitting until SOM injures him during a critical series with the first place team.

Batting ahead of McGwire (Before he got injured) was Sammy Sosa. Outside of McGwire, Sosa has the most HR / RBI in the league (real life). He doesn't hit a HR until about the 9th game. Yet, I got beat by a $.75M substitute who hit 10HR in 500+ AB, by hitting a 2 run HR to win the game off of Trevor Hoffman who only allowed 5HR in the season. Again, what a bunch of bullcrap.

The point being is that the statistics are all over the place. It's no fun if you spend a long time putting a team together and having all out chaos and anarchy. Few of the players on any team are peforming according to their stats / probability table. What is the point of analyzing all of these things if it doesn't make any difference?

Last thought.

Years ago, I'm playing Mario Brothers. My 10 year old daughter is watching me play and she starts to laugh. She says "Dad, don't you know about the 'secret doors?' ?" I said "What secret doors?" I had no idea. The point being is that unless my daughter told me about the "secret doors," there was no way in hell that I was going to beat that stupid game. I am hoping that SOM doesn't have it's "Secret Doors" where the guys who win know little tricky computer things and it has nothing to do with player performance. One last example.

If you are playing SOM at home on the computer and against the computer, it cheats like mad. The computer program is biased to perform not only according to player performance but team performance as well. I.E., if your team wins 90 games, the computer bias is for you to win no more than 90 games (+/- a margin of computer error). It's also limited by everything that your team does. I.E., total HR, RBI, BA, W/L, etc. So, again, what in the hell is the point trying to play against the computer when it will allow you to only win "x" amount of games? It's also limited by MLB records.

I play the game so much, that I can tell when the game is biased to beat me before we even get to that point. There's little "behaviors" the program has.

So, guys, do you think that it's worth playing this paid SOM Fantasy League thing? How are you guys doing with your teams?

Thanks a bunch.

P.S. I never went to the Show. I played 2.5 years Rookie League, A and AA before hanging up the spikes. I played with Barry Bonds, Jim Davenport, Tom Haller, George Foster, and got to bat against the "Underpants Man," Jim Palmer. I broke NCAA rules and played some college ball after pro ball. My coach said that it didn't matter because we had such a bad team that being disqualified didn't matter. LOL. That was my first time I ever played on a losing team. It was great tho. I got to play against Hofstra, Yale, Harvard, St Johns, etc.

This is why I am a sore loser.

Let's go to the SOM player cards. I had a weak hitter hit a critical HR off of one of the best CL in baseball (Trevor Hoffman). If you look at the hitter's card, he had one HR at about the 1-2 position and it was "HR 1-3." Trevor Hoffman had zero HR on his pitching card.

Here's the deal. This batter card is hitting during a critical part of the game. He hits a 2 run HR in the top of the 9th to tie and go ahead. What are the chances of the game being critical, his team being behind, his card having only one HR at position 1-2 and then it's a HR 1-3 and all of that aligns perfectly for a HR to beat me in a critical game? Not only that, but I get the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th. I need one run to tie and a basehit to win scoring 2. Yep, my player hit into a DP. LOLLLLLL.

You know this is absolute b.s. It's no fun to play if the players aren't going to perform somewhat close to their stats and chances of probability.

Hi Dan

I don't have enough experience to comment but here goes.....

My free starter season went poorly as well. Several stars grossly under performed and I went 5-16. I decided to give a full season a shot and did a better job of matching my team to my ballpark and won 94 games. Half my competition was also inexperienced and I am sure that was a factor. Over a full season the dice came out fairly even and 90% of my roster performed +/- 10% of expected stats which I consider realistic. Even my pitching was close to "right", which is probably not all that realistic when you consider they pitch to an all star game/HOF lineup nearly every outing.

Post up a link to your team and you will likely get some advice on areas to improve from those far more experienced than I. Not that I expect you will accept it as a full explanation. Some of it was likely just dice rolls. Hope you give it a chance, but make sure you get some advice first to ensure you don't doom yourself before the season even starts.

I hope that was Bobby Bonds, and not Barry Bonds!!!

I hear you---I have issues with the AI and accuracy myself---seems I am always on a tear whether winning or losing, and never a consistent team---with me, I have noticed that every time I start a 5th active team (5 going at once in various stages of the season) all my teams go into the tank at once winning at about a .400 rate until one finishes a season. I have been playing 3 years, and about 65 teams--the only consistent thing I have noticed is 5 active teams or more and I am toast.

These are probably just anomalies, but you wonder sometimes.

There was a discussion on the ATG forum lead by Nevdully's who has had over 2,000 teams and he said he was quitting because of his frustration with the improbable happening too often in the game. I have three teams this year. One team is 23-19 with losing streaks of 5 and 7 and winning streaks of 6,5,5 and 3. Another team started out 19-5 and then went 4-11; that team is now 25-17. My third team is 13-8--won 7 out of 8 series, no sweeps--but my 16 million starting staff has led the team to a 2.17 era...

But I guess people keep playing because results are clearly not just random luck because certain managers consistently win (not me). So I would advise taking a look at the strategy section for advice on how to put winning teams together.

Sounds like the SOM version of spring training.

freeman wrote:There was a discussion on the ATG forum lead by Nevdully's who has had over 2,000 teams and he said he was quitting because of his frustration with the improbable happening too often in the game. I have three teams this year. One team is 23-19 with losing streaks of 5 and 7 and winning streaks of 6,5,5 and 3. Another team started out 19-5 and then went 4-11; that team is now 25-17. My third team is 13-8--won 7 out of 8 series, no sweeps--but my 16 million starting staff has led the team to a 2.17 era...

But I guess people keep playing because results are clearly not just random luck because certain managers consistently win (not me). So I would advise taking a look at the strategy section for advice on how to put winning teams together.

I look at the manager ratings and see many of top ranked won mostly in the early 2000's. My believe is the competition is much better since then. For all the weaknesses I enjoy playing online SOM and competing (especially when I recognize the names).

sociophil wrote:Sounds like the SOM version of spring training.

Good comparison lol. Where several of my pitchers and IIRC the entire batting order out hit the 2009 batting champ. I almost didn't sign up for a real season.

Speaking of unlikely results in small statistical samples: In 24 games Johnathan Herrera (.72 salary) has 2 hr, 11 rbis (2nd on team) in 22 abs, batting over .400; Shane Peterson (salary .62)19 for 46 (.413). Team batting average overall is .245; excluding the two ringers it is .229...
http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1423843

I honestly think they are doing their image more harm than good by offering only a 21 game free trial.