Understanding HAL

Base Running:

I have it set to Conservative.

1-1 game, top of the 4th. Lead off single. Next batter doubles and HAL sends the runner from first home on a 1-11 chance. That is not conservative to me. Nobody out? Cost me a big inning.

Do I have the setting wrong?

I think that Hal could send your runner home even if you had baserunning set extra conservative. I remember reading once that HAL's decisions are based upon probability. IE If you have baserunning set as aggressive then there is a higher chance that HAL will send the baserunner than if you have it set on conservative. However, no matter what your setting there is always a chance that the runner gets sent. At least that is how I understand it. Someone can correct me if I am wrong.

more importantly, what was the score? It is my belief that HAL will almost ALWAYS send the potential tying or go ahead run, regardless of outs or what inning it is

It was a one-one tie in the 4th. I'll have to see if HAL always sends a runner if it is the tying or go ahead run. That might be it.

But, wow, can you imagine the morning paper if your MLB third base coach got the runner thrown out for the first out of the inning on basically a toss up call? In Detroit, they'd run him out of town!

Yes, I can imagine it! The Pirates are notorious for having runners cut down on the base paths constantly. It's amazing how often people are talking about base coaches for the Pirates.

I have no scientific evidence to back it up, but in tied and 1 run games, HAL seems to be more aggressive with base running decisions and pinch hitting. I have Miljus on my ATG team and if the game is tied or I'm trailing, HAL almost always pinch hits for Miljus even though I have him on slow hook and don't relieve before F8. Often times the pinch hitter gets out and the next reliever ends up giving up additional runs that ultimately cost me the game. But I think HAL looks at it as maybe the only opportunity to get that run and goes all in with the tools at his disposal.

I guess there is some logic to it, even if we don't quite get it.

At least we will never read in the recap that HAL 'went with his gut' when he made a pitching change or sent a runner. LOL

It is difficult because Strat will never tell us exactly how the code works. But consider this.
Suppose I came up with a formula that looked like this. I start with the runner's chance of being safe and I send the runner that percentage of time. So if his chances of being safe are 55% of the time I send him 55% of the time. That means 45% of the time I am sending him. Aggressive maybe bumps that 55% to 85%, extra conservative to 95%. Conservative lowers it to 35% and extra conservative to 15%. But that still means that the runner will try to score 15% of the time. If you only look at one game you might see the runner go and wonder how HAL could send the runner on that play in spite of your running being set at extra conservative.

These are relative settings. And we have no idea what the baseline for normal is. But whatever it is on any single play obviously anything can happen. You and I tend to think in absolutes. We look at circumstances and follow our rules of what we consider good base running to be. Never run under these circumstances, etc. But I doubt HAL is programmed that way and in practice in real life it never goes that way. Coaches and players violate all these unwritten baseball strategy wisdom rules all the time.

Valen,

That makes a lot of sense as to how HAL may be programmed. Introducing a little randomness into the games may have been a consideration of the designers.

Thanks and I hope you are having a great holiday.

SO, for the opposite example.

Bottom of the 12th tie game; two outs; man on second. Single to LF, runner is 1-12; LF is a zero arm. Why wouldn't you send the runner on a 70% chance of winning the game? HAL decided to hold him and my #9 hitter bounced to short to end the inning with the bases loaded.

I think Andy must be right, there is a percentage factor about when HAL sends or does not send a runner, regardless of anything else.

even worse.....

Top 10 tie game. Two outs single to LF (L Gonzalez +2). HAL does not send Aaron, who is 1-16, plus 2 for Luis bad arm and +2 for two outs. 1-19 chance and he held him. wth?

http://365.strat-o-matic.com/game/replay/431639/719