Advancement on Ground Outs
Posted: Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:43 pmI'm somewhat curious as to what other player's strategy would be in this situation..
This happened in a WINDOWS game where I'm competing against HAL. Situation: runner on 2nd with one out, my team at bat. The dice result in a ground ball to the shortstop with a 1-9 chance of making it safely to third if I desire to take the chance.
When I was considering this, my line of thinking was that I had a 45% chance of being successful if I attempted and HAL decided to try for the out at third base. I would have thought that even at 45% that HAL would prefer to get the sure out at first base, because even if the runner advances, there would be two outs, so a sacrifice fly would not be possible.
To my delight, HAL decided to go for the lead runner, who made it to third safely, and the next batter hit a sacrifice fly to score the run.
Wouldn't you think that HAL would rather concede the base and get the second out? [I know, I know, I'm assuming that HAL is being logical]. It would be better to have a runner on third with two outs rather than runners on first and third with one out. I would think getting the sure out would be the way to go on defense even if the chance of success for the team at bat was 20%.
This happened in a WINDOWS game where I'm competing against HAL. Situation: runner on 2nd with one out, my team at bat. The dice result in a ground ball to the shortstop with a 1-9 chance of making it safely to third if I desire to take the chance.
When I was considering this, my line of thinking was that I had a 45% chance of being successful if I attempted and HAL decided to try for the out at third base. I would have thought that even at 45% that HAL would prefer to get the sure out at first base, because even if the runner advances, there would be two outs, so a sacrifice fly would not be possible.
To my delight, HAL decided to go for the lead runner, who made it to third safely, and the next batter hit a sacrifice fly to score the run.
Wouldn't you think that HAL would rather concede the base and get the second out? [I know, I know, I'm assuming that HAL is being logical]. It would be better to have a runner on third with two outs rather than runners on first and third with one out. I would think getting the sure out would be the way to go on defense even if the chance of success for the team at bat was 20%.