What was HAL thinking!?

If you are like me and regularly look through the play by play of your games, you will often find instances of HAL decisions or the sheer randomness of the game that will make your blood boil.

This particular game had a couple for me:

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/game/playbyplay/452218/65

Now if I was a conspiracy theorist, I would say this is clear evidence that HAL wanted me to lose and stacked the deck against me.

The first instance was the Gentile GS in the 8th inning off a 1-3 BP HR roll. That's annoying, but it's bound to happen occasionally. So you can accept it, but it's still kind of frustrating.

But the one that really gets me is HAL deciding to try to steal home in the 9th inning. Runners on 2nd and 3rd, so no chance of a GBA or X Roll double play, and I'm down by 1 run.

I can't imagine the logic that went into determining A-Rod trying to steal home on Rob Murphy had a high probability of success. I always have my SB setting on conservative and no instructions for A-Rod to try to steal more. Additionally, Biggio vs Murphy is a fairly good match up, it's not like Gates Brown was in there. So as Peter Griffin might say, that one really grinds my gears.

Just for fun, I quickly looked through my last 5 teams. I am 0/7 on trying to steal home. I wish they would add a setting where you could just say never steal home. Stealing in strat is a fools errand in general, but stealing 3rd and home are basically just giving outs away.

You never played strato with the dice on a table top, I'm guessing. There are a ton of possibilities for plays. One issue w/online strato is it doesn't have the same level of transparency as when you're rolling dice at a table.

ARod may have tried a straight steal of home, though that is extremely unlikely, he has an 11 2nd steal number -9 to steal home would be a 2 out of 20 chance. Even w/aggressive baserunning, I seriously doubt HAL would have sent him.

It was likey a 1AND2 result of a bunt attempt by Biggio.
A B C D E
2 SAC SAC SAC SPEED SPEED
3 SAC SAC SAC SAC SAC
4 SAC SPEED SPEED SAC SAC
5 SPEED SAC SAC SAC SAC
6 DEFENSE DEFENSE DEFENSE DEFENSE DEFENSE
7 SAC SAC SAC SAC 1AND2
8 SAC SAC SAC 1AND2 1AND2
9 SAC SAC 1AND2 1AND2 1AND2
10 SAC POP POP BAD BAD
11 POP 1AND2 1AND2 1AND2 POP
12 1AND2 1AND2 POPDP POPDP POPDP
To see bunt chart look here:
https://stratomatic365.fandom.com/wiki/Charts

Original Stratomatic rules are pretty much built into the SOM game even if they don't have as much details in the FAQ as the original. I mean , EVERY baseball possibility is in the original rules. They have catchers blocking the plate, hidden ball trick all of it.

Back to your result, Biggio is a 'B' bunter. Infield is probly in, so he's now a 'C' bunter. He rolls a '1AND2' ,which in the case of a suicide squeeze :

1 and 2
Suicide Squeeze: Batter attempts bunt but misses the pitch, the runner on third must steal home!
https://dougburgett.net/strat/squeeze.html#1and2

ARod was forced to steal home due to a botched suicide squeeze attempt by Biggio -- a more likely thing to happen in real baseball.

So, keep in mind the most often bad things don't happen cuz the world, or HAL hates you and wants you to lose. Tons of random things happen all the time. But there is a law of averages, the opponent got a bphr of 1-3 to defeat you. I remember getting a BPHR result of a 1 to win a super close game. You have to keep memory of when it broke well if you against the odds, so you don't fall into conspiracy 'bad things are happening to me and someone is trying to unfairly make me lose'. You do get what the Astros did stealing signs, but more often than not, it's random actions, which we all get that fair share over time.

TOSHIRO. It's amazing. I have posted a well proven piece about SOM bias, SOM patterns, etc., and you joined several others by criticizing me. Yet, here you are DESCRIBING A SOM PATTERN THAT ROUTINELY HAPPENS TO YOU!!!

It appears as if you are bashing me just to join the other assholes here who haven't the slightest idea what they are speaking about. That says more about you than anything.

Dan

Dan, go away. The world doesn't need you.

@toshiro, I was just joking about the conspiracy theory. I realize that sometimes the rolls just go against you even when the odds are well in your favor. Thanks for the explanation on stealing home, I had no idea about the bunt scenario. It makes sense when you think about it in that light.