Steal Rating - Understanding pickoff chances
Posted:
Wed Jan 06, 2021 4:25 pmby Richard Zagrzecki
Hi. I am new to Strat-O-Matic 365. I have read through the rules and generally understand most of them, but I need some clarification on understanding the steal ratings -- specifically, the numbers listed for pickoff probability.
For example, Mally Trillo (1979) has the following steal rating: *2-6,8/7,9-12 (15-4)
If I understand correctly, the "*2-6" represents the roll needed for getting a good lead, and the "(15-4)" represents 1-15 as being the roll for "safe" if they got a good lead, and 1-4 being the roll for being safe if they did not get a good lead.
But I am confused by the "8/7,9-12" in the middle. Can someone explain to me how exactly those numbers are applied to determine the chance of being picked off? And if I misunderstood any of the other portions of the steal rating, please correct me. Thanks!
Re: Steal Rating - Understanding pickoff chances
Posted:
Wed Jan 06, 2021 7:26 pmby toshiro
This -> 2-6,8/7,9-12 is based on 2 6 sided dice
so if you roll 2-6,8 you get the interval and can roll on the 15 w/whatever other modifiers to see if you steal a base.
if you get a 7 or 9 - 12, then you're out.
Re: Steal Rating - Understanding pickoff chances
Posted:
Wed Jan 06, 2021 11:04 pmby Richard Zagrzecki
toshiro wrote:This -> 2-6,8/7,9-12 is based on 2 6 sided dice
so if you roll 2-6,8 you get the interval and can roll on the 15 w/whatever other modifiers to see if you steal a base.
if you get a 7 or 9 - 12, then you're out.
Thanks. That makes sense now. It was the slash mark that was throwing me off and keeping me from understanding what is actually pretty simple!
Re: Steal Rating - Understanding pickoff chances
Posted:
Thu Jan 07, 2021 1:43 amby coyote303
Incidentally, the out is considered to be caught stealing,
not a pickoff.
Actual pickoffs can occur when you try to steal via the pickoff rule. Since the rule is confusing, I'll just quote the rules:
Balk/Pickoff Rule
If a dice roll of 1 or 2 is rolled on the 20-sided die, during a steal attempt the pitcher has attempted a pickoff throw and the base runner dives back to the base.
A roll of 1 on the 20-sided die indicates that the baserunner attempting the lead may be picked-off. Refer to the baserunner's second steal rating number in parenthesis and roll the 20-sided die again. If the number rolled is less than or equal to the second steal rating the baserunner dives back safely (the steal attempt is canceled and the runner may not attempt to get the good lead again while still on this base). If the number is greater than the second steal rating then this baserunner is picked off.
A roll of 2 on the 20-sided die indicates a possible balk. Roll the 20-sided die again and refer to the pitcher's balk rating, If the number rolled is less than or equal to the balk rating then a balk has occurred and all baserunners advance 1 base. If the number is higher than the pitcher's balk rating then the baserunner dives back safely (the steal attempt is canceled and the runner may not attempt to get the lead again while still on this base).
NOTE: At first at base, if the runner dives back safely, he may still steal using his second steal rating number. At second base, if the runner dives back safely, be may NOT steal.