Thu May 23, 2024 2:08 am
Yes, I believe that canauscot is correct. Either brifas or der geist will pass me, either outright or on a run differential tiebreak (cumulative +289 vs +282 in regular seasons if my math is correct). Thus my only chances are first that mds6010 does not complete the first round, AND Moodywoody does not win a championship.
Slim but not none.
If mds6101 wins his first round, then he is in as neither brifas, der geist, or Moodywoody can then catch him. I would be eliminated as either der geist or brifas will pass me.
Moodywoody needs to win a championship AND have mds6101 lose in the first round. If mds wins his first round, Moodtwoody can't catch him even with a championship, and without a championship either der geist or brifas will pass Moodywoody by winning their championship - as one of them will do.
Thus, with a first round win mds6101 is in.
Either der geist or brifas is in, if Moodywoody does not win a championship.
If Moodywoody wins a championship, then he is in.
I can only get to the semis if mds6101 loses his first round AND Moodywoody does not win a championship, then I would be in on championship tiebreaker vs mds6101, along with either brifas or der geist.
If brifas wins a championship, they then win a tiebreaker vs mds6101 on championships, also.
Recap.
1. mds6101 is in with a first round win (currently leading 3-2)
2. Moodywoody is in with a championship. It's Championship or Bust.
3. If neither 1 or 2 occurs, then I am in along with the brifas/der geist champion.
4. If only 1 or 2 occurs, but not both, then the der geist/brifas winner advances with either mds6101 or Moodywoody.
I think.
Whew.