Anyone undertand this? answer

Q: Will the cards at the end of the year be the same as the 2016 card set released next year?

A: No, these cards likely won't look anything like next year's card set. The formula to create Baseball Daily cards is trying to accurately portray the ability of that player every day of the season. So, if a player goes into a cold streak that will be portrayed in his Daily Card until he breaks out of it. For example, if a player such as Albert Pujols goes April without hitting a home run, it doesn't mean he can't do it. His HR% on the card would shrink every day a new card is created but he still will have a chance to homer because he still has the ability to do so, it's just perhaps less than it was to start the season.


Don't understand how this answers the question about end of season cards being the same as the initial card set for 2016 season next year.

Well, I think they try to express many ideas in that paragraph, that the Daily card is based on past, projected, and current streak, but the real take home message I believe is that the card is likely to rely substantially on the player!s current streak...imagine that the Daily formula is based at 80% on a player's past/projected data and 20% on that player's current streak. When the last game is played, the 80% part may be similar to the next year card, but not the 20% part. For example, if Pujols finishes the year with .400 on-base, and his on-base in the last week is .200, then under this fictional 80/20% ratio, the Daily card would show a .360 on-base, while next year's card would show .400.

My answer (1/2 guess and 1/2 what I think we learned in the trials last year) is a little bit different than Marc's (maybe).

I think that it is more like a weighted average formula (I don't know the weighting) involving:

1. Expert projections for the 2016 season;
2. Actual 2016 performance to date (changing daily);
3. Perhaps also some current hot/cold streak data (as Marc suggested, above).

I believe the weighting will change as the season progresses, but it will never be purely a historical season type card - which is what the 200X cards are.

Does this make sense Scumby and Marc?

No, I still do not understand the answers. The question is whether the INITIAL cards for the new season would be the same cards at the end of the prior season. I understand the cards change when games are played. Still think the original question was not answered .

No, I still do not understand the answers. The question is whether the INITIAL cards for the new season would be the same cards at the end of the prior season. I understand the cards change when games are played. Still think the original question was not answered .

They will NOT be the end of season card from the previous season from what I understand. It will begin the new season with a heavy weighting on projection, and then as the season progresses Glen Head will layer in actual performance and trends.

Just like the fielding ratings, it will be VERY subjective, you know...."ancient Chinese secrets"

(this is probably the only place on the internet that will recognize that commercial reference LOL)

No, I still do not understand the answers. The question is whether the INITIAL cards for the new season would be the same cards at the end of the prior season. I understand the cards change when games are played. Still think the original question was not answered .

Scumby, the FINAL cards of the old season cannot look like the INITIAL card since the Final games will heavily weight on the Final cards only, but not on the Initial cards.

No, I still do not understand the answers. The question is whether the INITIAL cards for the new season would be the same cards at the end of the prior season. I understand the cards change when games are played. Still think the original question was not answered .

They will NOT be the end of season card from the previous season from what I understand. It will begin the new season with a heavy weighting on projection, and then as the season progresses Glen Head will layer in actual performance and trends.

Just like the fielding ratings, it will be VERY subjective, you know...."ancient Chinese secrets"

(this is probably the only place on the internet that will recognize that commercial reference LOL)

CALGON

As I understand the initial cards based on projected stats for this year. Maybe the same Pecota stats that predicted KC would miss the playoffs the last two years.........