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A study of a daily card - Aaron Judge

PostPosted: Mon Sep 19, 2022 2:52 pm
by barrmorris
As a player of the Daily game, I wonder about how the cards are constructed (influence of prior year, current year, more recent results) The link below shares my analysis of Aaron Judge's Daily 2022 card.

BRs (linear formula for Batting Runs similar to Diamond Dope) are shown for the following:

Actual Card: Judge's actual 2022 Daily cards
YTD OPS: Judge's ytd OPS converted to BR (64.6 x OPS - 49.2, this formula is based on linear regression of 2021 card data)
2021: Judges 2021 card
7 day moving average OPS: Judge's 7 day avg OPS converted to BR (same formula as above)

All BR values calculated at neutral park and a 1/3, 2/3 weighting of L/R.

My observations (which pretty much just confirms what SOM has said anyway): In the early part of the season the actual card tracks between the 2021 card and ytd stats. In the latter part of the season, the cards track between ytd stats and shorter term (more recent) results. ... sp=sharing