- Posts: 1107
- Joined: Thu Sep 06, 2012 11:27 pm
Here is the situation in a game last night; 9th inning and my team is behind by 3 runs and there are two out in the bottom of the 9th with the bases loaded and my team is facing the best closer in baseball, Aroldis Chapman. The hitter that comes up is Ryan Goins. Goins came in as a defensive replacement in the top of the 8th to play 2B. I still had 3 players on the bench including my pinchhitter vs lefties, Tommy La Stella. Lefthanded hitter Goins vs lefties = .158 BA, .158 OBP%, .237 SLG%
Hal works with a logic that I don't fully understand, but here is some guidelines---and let me hear from you all if you have the same experience as I do
1-Hal never makes a ph substitution when leading, only when trailing or when the game is tied.
2- Hal is most willing to make a substitution when the opposing pitcher has just been brought into the game. When the pitcher has already faced at least one hitter, Hal is much more conservative in doing a move.
3- Hal is also more willing in the 9th inning, when a critical situation occurs, than in other situations, but as the example above shows, Hal not always makes that move.
4- Slugging, rather than on-base, seems to trigger Hal to bring in a pinch-hitter. Clutch with two outs seems to help too.
5- Hal is more conservative when removing a player that has been brought into the game, but this could simply be an artefact of having less players on the bench
6- It seems to me that some players are easily removed by Hal, and some others are NEVER removed. In a 200M league, I had ss 6.08M Escobar. A 2L right-handed hitter, weak vs rhp. Hal NEVER EVER removed him for a pinch-hitter vs rhp, and believe me, I tried everything to incite him to do so. I put 17 players on the roster. I had a very solid slugging card vs rhp on the bench (Duda, then Vargas). I had 2 players that could cover ss, and then I dropped them and picked up 2 natural ss (ss was the first position on the card). Nada. In another team, I had Phillips, a 2R right-handed hitter, a bit better than Escobar vs rhp--a bit more on-base, more power, more direct homeruns, and Phillips was almost always removed by Hal when trailing and facing a right-handed pitcher--at least thirty times I would say (team overall had close to 70 pinch-hits PA).
So my conclusion is that there is a programmation line in Hal's logic that, if the pricetag of the player is above a certain amount (5M?, 6M?), you never remove that player from the lineup for pinch-hit. Perhaps it could be because Escobar had a 0 injury rating