Lost faith in game

Here is a comparison of my teams in my recent losing streak with teams I had in the same stadiums before the losing streak:

Petco:

a. Losing streak team

.224 .300 .411 http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1437514

b. Before Losing streak

.230 .303 .426 http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1426835
.239 .309 .426 http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1422741

AT&T:

a. Losing Streak Teams

.232 .292 .363 http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1438454
.233 .278 .313 http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1439995

b. Before Losing Streak

.257 .317 .377 http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1431844
.241 .308 .376 http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1429312
.271 .322 .403 http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1428784

Marlins:

a. Losing Streak

.248 .306 .376 http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1438750
.239 .305 .384 http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1437130

b. Before Losing Streak

.258 .320 .386 http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1433187
.255 .313 .394 http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1426207
.251 .309 .388 http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1424681

Coors:

a. Losing Streak
.266 .345 .426 http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1438460

b. Before Losing Streak

.270 .337 .442 http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1430703

Miller:

a. Losing Streak

.225 .294 .405 http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1439212

b. Before Losing Streak

.241 .310 .458 http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1431890
.232 .268 .453 http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1429311

Citizen's Bank:

a. Losing Streak

.221 .292 .460 http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1439380

b. Before Losing Streak

.262 .339 .498 http://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1430703

As you can see there has been a huge decline in my offense. The Petco team seems to be similar to my prior two teams but I spent 10 million more on offense than my prior two teams. Same with the Coors--I spent 10 million more on offense with my losing streak team, close to 60 million. In fact, look at the line-ups with my two Coors teams.

RHP. LHP RHP LHP

Cabrera. D'Arnaud. Votto. Votto
Holliday. Cabrera. Cabrera Cabrera
Jaso. Trout. Sano. Sano
Trout. Wright. Harper. Harper
Ethier. Holliday McCutcheon McCutcheon
D'Arnaud. Cozart. Dickerson. Escobar
Wright. Jaso. Schoop. Dickerson
Schoop. Escobar. Pena. Ryan
Cozart. Bourgeois. Escobar. Pena

The offense on the left (pre-losing streak) did better than the offense on the right even though 10 million less was spent (49 vs 59 million). 4.89 runs vs 4.66 runs.

Some players were on both teams

Schoop:

.209 .242 .374 (losing streak)
.293 .315 .495 (pre losing streak)

Escobar:

.228 .286 .329 (losing streak)
.244 .284 .426 (pre losing streak)

Wright:

.283 .325 .349 (losing streak)
.281 .354 .444 (pre losing streak)


So why would Hal turn on me? Well, it could mean that I just chose worse teams or I came up against better competition or sheer randomness. There is no way to disprove those possibilities. But just prior to my losing streak I won 4 out of 6 championships. Did that provoke a reaction by the program? I don't know but either I cannot play the game well anymore or there is some manipulation going on. Time to move on I think. In fact, my inclination is just to give up my semifinal spot in the tour. I was really addicted to the game but no more.

Don't forget that other owners do get better as they get more acquainted with the cards.

To illustrate: as you know, I have my own ratings, which this year I published in a Strat journal. Among the 15 worst rated players, as determined for a neutral stadium---but none are good buys whatever the stadium---14 of them were selected in the very first Strat league that started off this year (I was part of that league). In the most recent league I am playing, only 4 of those badly rated players are on an active roster and 11 players were left in the FA pool.

If those players were replaced by the best rated players, that would a 22 wins swing with only these 11 players. I don't think it would be a stretch to estimate an overall swing of 50-75 wins between teams playing in April compared to teams playing in November in terms of overall value.

From what I know of you, you seem to be quite well prepared when the season started, so you probably had an edge that is tougher to get as the season goes along.

Well, I want to be convinced. You make a reasonable argument, Marc. This did not happen to me last year, though. Obviously, a lot of managers do well and continue to do well on a regular basis so your explanation is the most reasonable. And of course it's almost instinctive to try and blame Hal when things go wrong. It is just so odd to go from being a decent manager for my first 20 teams then my teams drop off of the table the next 10. And of course it happens right after the most successful run that I had, winning 4 out of 6 leagues I entered. The timing was odd and the drop was so steep. Anyway, I have a few credits left and I'll see how those teams play out.

Look at real life. The Giants had the best record in baseball at the all star break, the worst after. In SOM, like reality, s**t just happens.

JT

If you won four out of six championships, you had an amazing string of good luck on your side, no matter how good you are, so you were due for some leveling off. Marc is also right in that players improve as the season goes on, and if you've been playing in tougher leagues, that takes its toll too.

You're a good player, but leagues have adjusted to you. Now you need to adjust back.

I started this season so badly, I thought I had forgotten how to play, but my last 8 teams or so have improved and I'm in every race. I can't tell you what i did to change, though I did make some changes. The biggest problem I tend to have is to try to replicate the year before, and it takes me a while to adjust to This season because every season has changes and you can't win the same way every time.

Incidentally, my 66 win embarrassment on the Tour was an almost exact replica of a team I had in Jeep's Prep league (with much better competition imo) that won 87 games. I didn't adjust to the differences in the leagues.

Good luck and I hope you stay with it.

Thanks for the pep talk, guys. Alright, I think my head is back in the right frame of mind. Back at it.

Freeman, after 15 years of this online game, there is one key concept to keep in mind that is a constant:

"When you start feeling good about yourself, be prepared to be humbled"!!

I won the tour championship with the 2011 set and, with the 2012 set, 16 of my 18 teams made the playoffs. In 2013, I missed the playoffs in 9 of my first 10 teams. Even though your strategy may not change, I think the individual sets have something to do with it, although I'm not sure why. I was markedly better in 2014 and am doing well in 2015. So, bottom line - unless your name is Marc and you're from Canada, it definitely happens.