little differnece for ranks 40-100 ...it validates my usual go to of picking a prospect who has a shot of playing this year (in AA or AAA and on a team with a "need").
From the article, there is a big difference between hitters and pitchers when it comes to the curve shape. For the hitters, success rates are higher at every quintile than pitching by a good margin and the downward line is consistent.
For pitchers, the drop off is fairly sharp after the first 20, and then if flatlines from 20 - 100. So if you're gonna pick pitchers, probly best to use late picks vs early. Anecdotally, seems like breakthrough pitchers come from any round:
Logan Webb: Drafted 4th rd
Turnbull: 2nd rd
Pepiot: 3rd rd
Pivetta: 4th rd
Glasnow: 5th rd
While a ton of 1st round pitchers, make an impact, a lot of guys seem to "come out of nowhere"-- Baseball America didn't pick them up nor did anyone (hence no one picked them up in our prospect drafts). Somehow, pitchers just make spontaneous breakthroughs that allow them to survive the Darwinian wittling down and make it to the next level-- even to mlb level. Really makes it seem that all the BA writers and everyone else don't actually know things when it comes to pitchers. Their words don't actually predict success.
Hitters still have a lot of variability and unpredictability, but top draft picks quite frequently become the impact players.
Fri Feb 28, 2025 4:05 pm