
- Posts: 257
- Joined: Sun Jan 01, 2017 3:26 pm
toshiro wrote:Big-- here is your "face to face" using actual cards chance:
https://forum-365.strat-o-matic.com/community/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=654911&sid=20c54e432d43a5b5214932f6bcd8c7a9
thank Tosh....at least that takes the villain HAL out of the equation
for people that think I am only "noticing the bad luck" and not the good, that's completely untrue....this is from my spreadsheet tracking all leagues, performance, and data from them....... for example
in 30 leagues, I had “exactly the same” (no difference) real W-L compared expected W-L in only 4 of them….showing no luck, good or bad
in the other 27 leagues, I had “better” real W-L compared expected results (showing good luck) in only 10 of them (roughly 1/3), however, none of those greatly influenced league outcome…..only 3 of those 9 teams won titles, and those 3 leagues real life win total only exceeded expected win totals, by (2, 5, and 2 games)….while the other 6 leagues I won the titles fighting uphill
in 17 of those 27 leagues (almost 2/3), I had “WORSE” real W-L compared expected results (showing BAD luck) in only 10 of them, however, none of those greatly influenced league outcome
thus, in the 27 leagues I’ve had with some difference of expected and actual W-L record, I’ve had better luck in only 1/3 of them, while experiencing bad luck in 2/3 of them, or EXPERIENCING BAD LUCK DOUBLE THE AMOUNT OF GOOD LUCK
that cumulative experience shows the bad luck empirically, not from one season or league only