Base Running Question

I thought I understood how the base running works, but based on last night's results, maybe not.

Eric Davis on first, two outs, Tommy Harper hits a double to CF - Eric Davis doesn't score nor even try to score.

Eric Davis is a 1-17.
Two outs +2 (at least that's how it used to work)
Mookie Wilson in CF has a +3 arm.

Tommy Harper's card for the 3-5 roll has
HR 1-7
DO 8-20

I know if it said Double** then it would be just two bases. But I thought without the asterisks the manager always had the option to send the runner. Is there a bug with totals that go past 20?

The +2 only comes into play when the right-fielder is involved. Rules say the maximum combined running rating and throwing arm total is 1-19, and the minimum is 1. In other words, it can never be a 100% sure thing. Now, why Mr. Davis didn't at least try to score when it's a 95% probability of success is something the third base coach and him will need to explain.

One more thing. It's possible the runner was held on first, which subtracts 1 in both advanced and super-advanced rules, so, we might be talking about a 1-18 instead of 1-19, depending on whether the subtraction comes after the other part of the calculation. I would guess the subtraction caused by a "hold" would comes before test for >= 20, so, I think we are still looking at a 1-19, not 1-18.

Thanks Paul -

The comment about the +2 only comes into play when the RF is involved - what does that mean? The outfielder's arms don't matter unless in RF? Or the two out benefit?

super-advanced rules --copy and pasted from the rules....

"On throws from rightfield to third base, increase the baserunner's rating by 2. On throws from leftfield to third base, decrease the baserunner's rating by 2."

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So with two outs, add 2 (advanced/super-advanced rule -- not copied and pasted here); then add 2 if the hit is to right field and the throw is to third base; doesn't say anything about adding +2 when the throw is to home plate.

So, I think for Eric Davis it's

1-17
+2 (two outs)
and, then -1 if runner was held on 1st base

What about Mookie' +3 arm - that doesn't get considered?

What about Mookie' +3 arm - that doesn't get considered?

Oh, yeah, I guess we should also consider that. So add three for Mookie's arm, but, don't go over 19.

Here are rules:
https://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/bt ... mrules.htm

OK. In fairness, I do believe I have my team set to run the bases conservatively. But...with two outs in the first inning and a 95% safe percentage and HAL doesn't send him? I think I have the right to be very disappointed.

OK. In fairness, I do believe I have my team set to run the bases conservatively. But...with two outs in the first inning and a 95% safe percentage and HAL doesn't send him? I think I have the right to be very disappointed.

Absolutely. I think I just learned something ominous about what happens if I use "conservative" base running with a less than stellar set of outfielders in the field. It's still a viable strategy, but, only if you're convinced that nobody named Moe, Larry, Curly, or Mookie is playing outfield.

This just happened to Eric Davis again tonight in a play off game. Two outs, Eric Davis on 2nd, base hit to LF. Eric is a 1-17. Two outs makes him 1-19. Mike Easler is a +3 in LF. Understanding that it maxes out at 19, but HAL again refuses to send Eric Davis home. I don't score as the next player makes out. I end up losing by 1 in the bottom of the 9th (when HAL ignores my 4 other relief pitchers who are better than my designated "mop up" guy who is somehow allowed to pitch the 9th with the game on the line.)

I'm sorry to say I think this is my last SOM season - too many other simulations to explore.

This just happened to Eric Davis again tonight in a play off game. Two outs, Eric Davis on 2nd, base hit to LF. Eric is a 1-17. Two outs makes him 1-19. Mike Easler is a +3 in LF. Understanding that it maxes out at 19, but HAL again refuses to send Eric Davis home. I don't score as the next player makes out. I end up losing by 1 in the bottom of the 9th (when HAL ignores my 4 other relief pitchers who are better than my designated "mop up" guy who is somehow allowed to pitch the 9th with the game on the line.)

I'm sorry to say I think this is my last SOM season - too many other simulations to explore.

I hope that's not the case and that you stay, but, yeah, I can see how disheartening that would be to have fast runners turn timid just because of the baserunning setting. If it's any consolation I used "conservative" baserunning in a Game 7 a year ago because the outfielders had cannon arms and I won in the bottom of the ninth, possibly because Aparicio stopped at third on a single and the next batter singled to win the championship. I'm afraid a lot of the decisions such as mop-up coming into a high leverage situation in a postseason game are the result of random number generators rather than sound logic and nobody wants to change old programming code written by somebody else for fear of making things worse.