- Posts: 66
- Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 6:44 pm
Mean Dean wrote:If you're waiting for a 77% chance to steal home, you'll never steal home in your life. It's a straight -9 off the second number (pitcher's hold and catcher's arm don't enter into it), and you rarely see a second number higher than 15, so you'll hardly ever see a chance better than 30%.
46.2% on steals of home is honestly rather astonishing, and I bet represents a lot of lucky rolls I'd sure as hell take that success rate, at least if the attempts were with two outs, or maybe one out and the #8 hitter up in a non-DH.
I agree that stealing a run half the time without worrying if the batter up to bat will extend the inning or not is probably worth the risk, especially if you have a weak hitter and there are two outs.
Guess I was looking more at the 3rd base steal rate. From what I've heard, the big drawback of the generalized "aggressive" or "very aggressive" made the stealing of 2nd go up and still maintain a decent rate, while the thefts of 3rd became risky to the point of foolishness.