WAR

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/89595 ... n-magazine

just read this article about WAR I didn't know that if you go to different baseball sites that they calculate WAR in a different manner this alone makes me even more confused on the subject but I did like the article

rudy

rudy's point about different people using different formulas is a valid one. It even goes further. For a given site often you will see them change their formula from time to time for various reasons.

One reason for differences is how you define replacement player. For example given modern scouting and state of minor leagues is a replacement player better now than say 40 years ago? One site used the formula (Actual player value - average player value) + (average player value - replacement player value). This means you have to not only define a replacement player but also an average player.

And if you are really serious about meaningful accuracy should you not define average player and replacement player relative to position? Can a replacement shortstop really be expected to produce the same power production as a replacement first baseman or replacement outfielder? And what do you do with players who played multiple positions.

Does the average replacement corner OFer the same as the average replacement CFer? If so what about a guy like Trout who played all 3 OF positions. Do you compare his final numbers against the replacement LFer or the replacement CFer? What about a guy like Mitch Moreland who spent some time in RF? What about the guy who catches, plays first, and also DH. What replacement position player do you use for calculating his WAR?

Even if you settle all the above at some time you have to have a calculation for putting a number to value. Most use some variation of runs created assigning values to HRs, singles, walks, outs, SB, etc. Do those calculations also take in to account whether an out is a productive out or not? For example with a runner on second does a ground out to second count more toward value than a ground out to SS that forces the runner to stay put? Exactly how many runs do you credit or subtract for all the different things a player might do on a baseball field? It all matters with respect to whether a player is a winning player or not. But I suspect there is a great deal that never makes it in to any formulas because the value with respect to run production or prevention is just not knowable or too complicated.

Some saber people say stolen base is overrated. If so what credit if any do you give to Trout's stolen bases?

To be clear I would never say the WAR number is completely meaningless. But I would say it is not the true representation of a player's value some would claim. And it is not a reliable way to compare players for inclusion to an allstar team or worthiness of MVP and certainly not for whether a player is HOF worthy. And I have seen far too many people talk like it is the ultimate valuation tool not only showing whether a player is allstar, MVP, HOF caliber but how much he should be paid.

I didn't know that if you go to different baseball sites that they calculate WAR in a different manner

This is part of the problem with a made up stat. Saber types have tried for many years to be the first to come up with a single all inclusive number that measures a player's total worth.

When I was younger it was total average. I even dabbled in that one some including it in some spreadsheet calculations I kept for fun. But recently while researching WAR I came across an article by the person who came up with total average concept. He explained he did so at the request of a particular team owner who had him add extra points for a grand slam to account for the emotional lift he thought such an event might generate. This highlights a weakness of the single number analysis. It is impossible to measure the intangibles of what a player does on the field and definitely off the field. WAR will paint Michael Young as a drag on the Rangers last year. But more players have spoken about how the loss of Young will be a challenge to overcome this year than have spoken about the challenge of having lost Josh Hamilton.

It would be interesting to do an experiment. It will never happen but this would be fun to do. Go to all the baseball commentators and other media people that routinely quote WAR and ask each one to provide the formula on how it is calculated. My bet is 9 out of 10 could not do it, yet they quote it as if it was infallible. I would like to do the same with all the fans who also have come to quote WAR as if doing so settles any questions about which player present or past is better. I bet 99 of 100 or so could not do so without going to the internet. And as rudy points out even when one does that it depends on which site is visited.

I also believe any system that places fixed values on an event is flawed. Power production is important if you hit in middle of lineup. But is the power hitter who drives in a run any more valueable than the leadoff table setter who got on so the power hitter would have someone to drive in. Whether slugging or on base percentage should be awarded more points of WAR depends largely on what role that player has on a given team.

There was a thread in the ATG forum a while back where the person who tweaks the formula for pricing players discussed in general terms how the formula might be improved. Essentially that is the same discussion, what value to assign to a player based on what you know. How much absolute value is a HR, stolen base, walk, error, etc?