HAL Truisms

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l.strether

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Re: HAL Truisms

PostThu Jan 22, 2015 10:49 pm

STEVE F wrote:It is human nature to remember when those "low probability" chances occur than to remember when they don't.

Of course it's human nature to remember "low probability" occurrences more than high probability ones. I never said it wasn't. I just correctly said our noticing them more doesn't mean they occur more than they should.
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Badjam

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Re: HAL Truisms

PostFri Jan 23, 2015 1:27 pm

l.strether wrote:
STEVE F wrote:It is human nature to remember when those "low probability" chances occur than to remember when they don't.

Of course it's human nature to remember "low probability" occurrences more than high probability ones. I never said it wasn't. I just correctly said our noticing them more doesn't mean they occur more than they should.


Wow, ease up on the guy. He is agreeing with you. He's simply just providing the psychological reason why your statement is true.
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l.strether

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Re: HAL Truisms

PostFri Jan 23, 2015 2:01 pm

Wow, ease up yourself, BJ. My post was completely uncontentious, unlike yours. I was merely clarifying that I had already stated what he said, and what the main gist of my argument was. I'm not surprised you missed that.

Considering how lame your last erroneous "correction" of one of my posts was, you should probably avoid making them... ;)
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apolivka

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Re: HAL Truisms

PostTue Jan 27, 2015 1:43 pm

Here's my most often seen HAL truism: My #1 or #2 starter in the game pitching a gem in a tight low-scoring game. Start of the 7th inning (if he's an S6) will begin with: Single, Walk, Double (or replace one of those with a Home Run) all off the Hitter's cards.
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bbfan

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Re: HAL Truisms

PostWed Jan 28, 2015 1:05 am

ScumbyJr wrote:Having played enough 20xx, ATG, and less mystery leagues there are certain things that are HAL truisms.Here's 3 of them.

2) The bonehead, makes no sense in anyway, attempts to steal. Example 9th inning down by 1, runner on 2nd, no outs. -how many times is he thrown out trying to steal 3rd regardless of the steal settings and bunting ability of the hitter.



game 4 in the playoffs, I'm up 2-1 in games and down 2-1 in the 7th, Venable LEADS OFF with a triple, contact hitters coming up:

0 W.Venable 4-9 Triple (CF) b-3 F9
Caught Stealing 3-o F9
1 J.Altuve 4-5 Ground Out (SS) b-0 F9
SUBSTITUTION at PH: Jonathan Herrera
2 J.Herrera 2-10 Pop Out (SS) b-0 F9
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chasenally

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Re: HAL Truisms

PostWed Jan 28, 2015 3:49 am

This one blows me away that not one has posted it.

If you are the best team in the league HAL will kick your ass in many ways. Best anything and you are done. 100 or more wins and you are toast against any .500 team and mail in the loss.

I know as I have had the best team without a doubt and have kicked and a team around .500 and win it all.

This is a CRAP game and roll the dice in every game and every at bat.

MAN I LOVE CRAPS MORE THAN I LOVE THIS GAME. Its a roll of the dice and that's why Vegas wins and you spend your money.

Let the next season begin and the roller keep rolling 7's early on.
The msaegse is waht mttares msot!
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ScumbyJr

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Re: HAL Truisms

PostWed Jan 28, 2015 12:24 pm

bbfan wrote:
ScumbyJr wrote:Having played enough 20xx, ATG, and less mystery leagues there are certain things that are HAL truisms.Here's 3 of them.

2) The bonehead, makes no sense in anyway, attempts to steal. Example 9th inning down by 1, runner on 2nd, no outs. -how many times is he thrown out trying to steal 3rd regardless of the steal settings and bunting ability of the hitter.



game 4 in the playoffs, I'm up 2-1 in games and down 2-1 in the 7th, Venable LEADS OFF with a triple, contact hitters coming up:

0 W.Venable 4-9 Triple (CF) b-3 F9
Caught Stealing 3-o F9
1 J.Altuve 4-5 Ground Out (SS) b-0 F9
SUBSTITUTION at PH: Jonathan Herrera
2 J.Herrera 2-10 Pop Out (SS) b-0 F9


Reminds me of the old single panel comic from the Sunday papers' "They'll do it every time".
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ScumbyJr

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Re: HAL Truisms

PostWed Jan 28, 2015 12:27 pm

chasenally wrote:This one blows me away that not one has posted it.

If you are the best team in the league HAL will kick your ass in many ways. Best anything and you are done. 100 or more wins and you are toast against any .500 team and mail in the loss.

I know as I have had the best team without a doubt and have kicked and a team around .500 and win it all.

This is a CRAP game and roll the dice in every game and every at bat.

MAN I LOVE CRAPS MORE THAN I LOVE THIS GAME. Its a roll of the dice and that's why Vegas wins and you spend your money.

Let the next season begin and the roller keep rolling 7's early on.


I guess no one posted because there have been entire threads about this.
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l.strether

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Re: HAL Truisms

PostWed Jan 28, 2015 1:08 pm

chasenally wrote:This one blows me away that not one has posted it.

If you are the best team in the league HAL will kick your ass in many ways. Best anything and you are done. 100 or more wins and you are toast against any .500 team and mail in the loss.

I know as I have had the best team without a doubt and have kicked and a team around .500 and win it all.

Teams with amazing records lose the championship in MLB all the time. As any gambler knows, any baseball team can win any series from any other team any time. That is even more the case in SOM. To state the obvious, SOM is a probability game. Better teams will usually better "manipulate" probabilities over the long run of a season. However, they can't as successfully do so in the short term of a 5 or 7-game series.

Also, sometimes the team with the better record isn't actually the better team, particularly in SOM. Sometimes that team just had worse teams in its division and/or had a greater amount of luck than others. Considering all the possible variables, I'm not sure what would constitute the "best" team in a league anyway. That would be an interesting forum topic.
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ScumbyJr

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Re: HAL Truisms

PostWed Jan 28, 2015 2:24 pm

l.strether wrote:
chasenally wrote:This one blows me away that not one has posted it.

If you are the best team in the league HAL will kick your ass in many ways. Best anything and you are done. 100 or more wins and you are toast against any .500 team and mail in the loss.

I know as I have had the best team without a doubt and have kicked and a team around .500 and win it all.

Teams with amazing records lose the championship in MLB all the time. As any gambler knows, any baseball team can win any series from any other team any time. That is even more the case in SOM. To state the obvious, SOM is a probability game. Better teams will usually better "manipulate" probabilities over the long run of a season. However, they can't as successfully do so in the short term of a 5 or 7-game series.

Also, sometimes the team with the better record isn't actually the better team, particularly in SOM. Sometimes that team just had worse teams in its division and/or had a greater amount of luck than others. Considering all the possible variables, I'm not sure what would constitute the "best" team in a league anyway. That would be an interesting forum topic.


and playoffs are usually about matchups. KC was not the better team than the O's, but they matched up better.
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