Estimating Chris Davis' card, 2015

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Very interesting guys! ... Anyone care to take a guess at how much some of these 2015 cards will cost?

^^^ By the way Valen, I guess I should subscribe to stratworld!!!

Of maybe write for them

This was my prediction for his 2015 card - the actual card die roll chances are in square brackets [] . The actuals are from Garcia's blog:

"Estimating Chris Davis' card, 2015

Just for fun, here is my (very rough) estimate of Chris Davis' 2015 card:

vs LHP:

HBP - 3 die roll chances [3]
Walks - 10 die roll chances [9]
Singles - 15.6 die roll chances [14.15]
Doubles - 1.5 die roll chances [3.1]
Triples - 0 [0]
Homeruns (pure die roll chances) - 4.8 die roll chances [4]
Ballpark homerun readings (die roll chances) - 7 die roll chances [6]

vs RHP:

HBP - 3 die roll chances [3]
Walks - 17 die roll chances [21]
Singles - 1.25 die roll chances [.9]
Doubles - 6.7 die roll chances [5.6]
Triples - 0 [0]
Homeruns (pure die roll chances) - 8.5 die roll chances [9.2]
Ballpark homerun readings (die roll chances) - 8 die roll chances [8]

Est. that he will have no ballpark singles vs RHP. [correct - no ballpark singles vs RHP]

My estimate of Strat's balance rating for this card will be 2R. His card versus lefties is nice, with lots of singles this 2015 year, but he should have really nice power versus RHP this 2015 year.

[correct - strat's balance assessment was 2R]

Caveats - 1) Davis' 2014 card was very skewed, with no ballpark singles. My calculations on his 2015 singles might be off slightly if I haven't modeled that change correctly from year to year. His doubles vs RHP in 2014 were also very low, and that might skew my 2015 calculations.
2) As with my estimates last year, I am assuming that the ballpark effects remain the same from 2013 to 2014, at Camden yards (I also take into account average ballparks for road games). This could have a moderate effect on his card, up or down, but more likely up (if Camden's lefty HR chances go down from 2013).

My methodology was laid out two years ago. I'll provide a link. I was fairly accurate the last 2 years. I am not using any inside information to make these estimates, and I am not using any third party websites. It's my own estimates only."

Overall, really close.

There was a guy in Ohio (I think) about 15-20 years ago named Bruce Bundy who was also very good at estimating the cards. He used to be a contributor to SOMworld back when Glenn Guzzo was a major player there.

http://www.cba-bb.net/Bundy.htm

All you ever wanted to know about making SOM cards.

and here's an image of his card:

https://scontent-dfw1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xtp1/t31.0-8/12715927_1064389726946761_1446557306111680488_o.jpg