chasenally wrote:Read all the post above and I get what everyone is saying. Here is my bitch. Reese McGuire.
187 total AB. 23 against LHP 1 Double and 1 HR. 1HR total and against LHP in 23 AB. W Power from that side. Small sample size I get it. His slash against LHP was .391/.440/.435. Against LHP in column #1 he has a roll of 2) for an HBP and 12) roll gets him a SINGLE 1-2. Column #2 he has no chances. Column 3 is where it really gets bad. 5) gives him a $ SINGLE. 6) gives him a single 1-8. 8) DOUBLE 1-17 Single 18-20. 9 @ 10 $ SINGLE 11) > SINGLE.
This guy hits .391 against LHP and he has only one roll that is an outright hit. Batting .391 against LHP and he has a 1 in 36 chance of getting an outright hit against LHP on his card. I don't care about sample size here; the card is just not even close. My guess his .391 BAVG against LHP will be around .040 at the end of the season.
Yeah, I know SOM struggles with what to do with guys who get so few PAs against a side and do well there. Looks like they made him much better v RHP than he would have been strictly by his splits. I believe in such situations they look at his lifetime stats (in this case .219/.258/.298) and adjust accordingly.
Not sure what the right answer is. If you gave him a card with his actual stats, you would use him the exact opposite way Boston did last year. Would that be better? I don't really think it is...