Ortiz 500 HR = HOF?

Let's provoke some discussion with a few assertions.

David Ortiz has had a career essentially equal in value to Torii Hunter.
David Ortiz has had a career slightly less valuable than Mark Teixeria.
David Ortiz has had a less valuable career than Chase Utley.
David Ortiz has had a substantially weaker career than Carlos Beltran.

If you see Papi as a HOFer how about the assertions above, and do you see those other 4 as HOFers?

Let's provoke some discussion with a couple assertions.

David Ortiz has had a career essentially equal in value to Torii Hunter.
David Ortiz has had a career slightly less valuable than Mark Teixeria.
David Ortiz has had a substantially weaker career than Carlos Beltran.

If you see Papi as a HOFer how about the 3 assertions above, and do you see those 3 as HOFers?

I try not to think about it too much, IE, I think we as a whole have become obsessed with the stats to the point of letting career numbers sway our opinions of who was a truly great player when they were active. 500 HR's and 3000 hits are great accomplishments, but do they make an automatic HOF'er? Just explaining my thinking so you can take my opinions with the appropriate grain of salt

I'd say
Tori yes
Teixeria probably not, but he's not done yet
Beltran no

How about Utley?

For the record I'd say Beltran definitely yes, Utley probably yes, no to Papi, Tex, and Hunter, although I could "understand" Papi.

Here's some more assertions:

Felix Hernandez, Greinke, and Sabathia have all had better careers than Papi.

HOFers?

I'm interested by what measurements you rank Tex ahead of Ortiz? To me, Ortiz is miles ahead of Tex as a hitter. I know Tex played GG caliber D, but at 1b so maybe not quite such a big deal?

How about Utley?

For the record I'd say Beltran definitely yes, Utley probably yes, no to Papi, Tex, and Hunter, although I could "understand" Papi.

Here's some more assertions:

Felix Hernandez, Greinke, and Sabathia have all had better careers than Papi.

HOFers?

Felix yes (admit I'm assuming he'll continue at current level for a few more years)
Greinke too early to tell
Sabathia no

Here's is one of the criteria I've always considered for HOF in any sport,

If you were to write the history of that sport, would FILL IN THE BLANK be part of that written history.

To me Papi fits that criteria based on his post season success and helping the Red Sox win multiple world series. add that to his stats and I believe he belongs. As to your list using similar criteria:

Beltran Yes
Utley Yes

the rest no, though Hunter is borderline.

Steve F, Papi has a lifetime .378obp/.546 slugging line, and Tex has a .364/.518 line. Pretty similar to start with and on balance Papi has played in somewhat better hitting environments for most of his career. So, once you factor in a pretty large gap in defensive performance between the two a picture emerges of very similar careers in terms of overall value, maybe Tex even has the slight edge in a per game basis. I personally think that Papi's large sample size of giant postseason performance is enough to pull him even, or even slightly ahead of Tex overall, but the gap between the two is largely one of perception not performance. Papi has meant a lot more to Boston's history than Tex has meant to New York's. Breaking the Curse will do that!

As for the pitchers I think King Felix is there already, he could easily pad his counting numbers with only a couple average seasons, and Greinke and Sabathia don't really have to add a whole lot more to deserve the nod. Greinke is two years younger than Sabathia and is more effective at this point, so he may be the better shot with more in the tank.

I understand what you're saying and there's not doubt that , when healthy, Tex is a great player.

What I'm saying is we've seen all these guys their whole careers. It's not like the old time players where we can only look at the numbers or read the accounts of their greatness. For quite a long time now when I'm watching players I'm thinking "is he a HOF'er?" Just my opinion obviously, but watching Tex , Beltran or Sabathia I never felt I was watching a HOF player. Very very good players to be sure, but not quite HOF. Watching Ortiz, Tori, and Felix I felt I was watching a HOF player.

I realize that this kind of rating is going to have a large margin of error, and if I had a HOF vote I'm sure I'd look into it much more intensely. BUT...shouldn't we as older people by now more or less know a HOF'er when we see one?

Examples of players that don't have anywhere near the career numbers at this point:
Goldschmidt, Trout, McCutchen, Kershaw, Harper. These guys to me LOOK like HOF'ers. They have a ways to go and injuries can be a factor of course.

Sabathia? Give me a break. He only ONCE had an ERA under 3.00

Let's provoke some discussion with a few assertions.

David Ortiz has had a career essentially equal in value to Torii Hunter.
David Ortiz has had a career slightly less valuable than Mark Teixeria.
David Ortiz has had a less valuable career than Chase Utley.
David Ortiz has had a substantially weaker career than Carlos Beltran.

If you see Papi as a HOFer how about the assertions above, and do you see those other 4 as HOFers?

I totally disagree with all 4 assessments above. If your discounting Ortiz because he was a DH, that is not a fair comparison, as is comparing these hitters to the starting pitchers you mentioned. Apples to Oranges comparison.

I think fielding can increase your changes to get into the HOF, but stilled weighted very heavily in what you do from a hitting perspective. You never see statistics about how many runners an OF threw out or how many errors an IF made when debating HOF worthy or not. Ortiz playing DH most of career equates to an average fielder with a defensive WAR of 0 is how I think about it. He does not help or hurt your team fielding-wise.


Ortiz yes - 501 HRs, 2293 hits + 1237 BB, OPS .924, only thing that keeps him out is the whole steroid scandal.
Beltran yes - 390 HRs, 2444 hits + 1011 BB, OPS .845
Hunter no - 352 HRs, 2446 hits + 659 BB, OPS .794 [Beltran before Hunter for sure], great fielder but I do think enough to put him in.
Teixeira possibly, career not quite over yet, will get to >400 HR's, 2,000 hits, OPS .882
Utley possibly - only 1600 hits? OPS .845 great for a 2b, compared him to Jeff Kent (2461 hits, 377 HR, OPS .856), is the 1600 hits enough to get in?