Hot Stove

Many writers have differing opinions on trades, including this one. Many writers, including Sullivan, can be wrong. I'm surprised you didn't make your own argument and do better than an unfounded "meh." Also, the fact Didi has "shown he can handle the bigs" isn't that significant. GM's successfully trade known value for greater potential value in prospects all the time, and do quite well at it. And I showed that Gregorius hasn't been "handling the bigs" very well lately.

If we're doing the writer thing, though, Ben Badler of Baseball America, who knows a lot about prospects, wrote this about Leyba:

"Leyba is an extremely mature and polished player for his age and experience level. He has good bat speed and a simple swing from both sides of the plate, with strong bat-to-ball skills and solid control of the strike zone. He has a strong, compact frame for his age without much physical projection, so he’s more of a gap hitter who doesn’t project as a big power threat. He’s a smart, fundamentally sharp player with strong baseball instincts in all phases of the game."

That's not "meh." However, if you think they could have done better than a solid IF prospect and a hard-throwing (but raw) young lefty, please share what you think they could have gotten for Gregorius.

Ray had only reached AA in 2013 logging only 58 innings at that level. ERA was only 3.72.
Probably should have started 2014 in AA and finished in AAA making his MLB debut in 2015.
So it was probably rushing him to expect him to deliver in a pennant race.

Read Tigers said they considered Greene more seasoned and ready. He is a couple years older. But 2014 was also his MLB debut and looking at his minor league status I am not seeing anything special. Though he has posted some nice go/ao ratios. Not sure if that is as crucial in Detroit as some places. This looks and sounds a little like one of Daniels early trades where he dealt Danks for the more Major league ready guy.

I think it was important for the yanks to get a shortstop with some range since they may be forced to live with an aging and rusty Arod at third this year.

Reports actually have the Yanks going with Prado or Refsnyder--a solid hitting prospect--at 3b if they don't sign Headley. Cashman is too smart to count on A-Rod any further. They're also planning to platoon Gregorius with Ryan to accommodate Gregorius' weakness against lefties. Those two should do a yeoman job until the blazing Jorge Mateo is ready.

Leyba's upside is to become Gregorious in 2 years. More likely than that he flames out as most prospects do. Ray has walked 190+ in 420 minor league innings. That's a large sample size of lousy control. K rate dropping at an age when it needs to rise. Ugly return for a solid young SS in an era when that type of players in demand

That's way off. I showed BA's Ben Badler sees Leyba with a greater upside than Gregorius. You give nothing to refute that, nor explain your false belief otherwise. If that and "most prospects flame out" is the best you can do, you haven't supported your point. At this point, I have, and the D-Backs did just fine in the trade.

Also, you're repeating yourself on Ray. We've already agreed he's had control problems. We've also agreed he's a 23-year-old lefty who throws 95-97 mph...making him a valuable commodity. As another poster pointed out, he was probably rushed and his performance reflected that.

Finally, the "ugly" part of the Gregorius trade last year was Didi's production. He had a .226/.290/.363 line, and his defense significantly declined with a subpar UZR last year...that ain't "solid." Those kind of players aren't worth all that much. If you truly think they got an "ugly" return on Didi--which they didn't--tell us how they could have done better. You've failed to do so once already. So, you probably--and understandably--can't.

In 2011 Scott McKinney of Royals Review studied 14 years of data on Baseball America's top 100 annual prospects in MLB and found that 63% percent of position players in fact flamed out at levels below Gregorious' production. Most far below, at replacement level. For pitchers like Ray the rate was even higher, 77%. But in this case neither Ray nor Leyba is even a top 100 BA prospect. Instead, they ranked 7th and 5th respectively in Detroit's farm system which is regarded by BA and other evaluation systems as pretty lousy. So in reality they are far worse than 63 and 77% dice rolls to amount to anything in MLB. Gregorious isn't the 2nd coming of Jeter, but he's already something. Arizona very likely just gave up something for nothing.

And your quote above from Badler does not claim a higher upside than Gregorious, who by the way is pre peak and hasn't even reached his own upside

Firstly, Badler's post absolutely claims Leyba has a higher upside. Go read it again. He said:

"Leyba is an extremely mature and polished player for his age and experience level. He has good bat speed and a simple swing from both sides of the plate, with strong bat-to-ball skills and solid control of the strike zone."

None of that applies to Gregorius who doesn't have any of those hitting skills and tools attributed to Leyba. Leyba has potential to be a plus major league hitter; we already know Gregorius will never be. His declining hitting (and fielding) skills help show that. Also, you still don't counter Badler's scouting report on Leyba. So, we'll agree his account of Leyba's potential is correct and yours is not, regardless of Leyba's original system.

Also, neither Kinney's study nor your flawed "probabilities" on Leyva and Ray counter anything I said. Everybody knows prospects fail more than succeed. GMs trade for their potential value knowing both the risks of failure and the rewards of a possibly superior player. So, your notion that trading a lesser major leaguer like Gregorius for potentially superior players like Leyba is trading "something for nothing" is plain wrong. No GM in MLB would agree with you on it.

Here are some trades where unproven prospects were involved and how your logic would have judged them:

Trade--------------------------------------------------------------Teamnasty's judgment
1, NYY trades Of prospect Willie McGee for pitcher Bob Sykes------------NY got something for nothing
2. Bos trades 3b prospect Jeff Bagwell for RP Larry Andersen------------Bos got something for nothing
3. SFG trades SP prospect Zack Wheeler for Of Carlos Beltran------------SF got something for nothing
4. Hou trades Inf prospect Ben Zobrist for Aubrey Huff---------------------Hou got something for nothing.

As you can see, your erroneous "something for nothing" perspective on player-for-prospect trades would have been terribly flawed in the past and is flawed now. Prospects do have value, and trading for prospects provides a significant potential payoff to offset the potential loss. With Owings at Short and Nick Ahmed on board, the potential payoff of a Leyba is much more valuable to the D-backs than the known poor offensive player, Didi.

Finally, you've failed twice now to suggest how the D'backs could have done better for Didi. I'll accept that as an admittance you can't.

Badler makes no direct comparison to Gregorious at all and you know it. He compared Leyba's skills to others of his age and single A playing level (a judgment made after a small sample size of 67 games). Jeff Sullivan however, (who I cited), does compare Leyba to Gregorious directly and finds Leyba lacking. A good haul ironically would have been the straight up trade of Greene for Gregorious that the Yanks offered but Az rejected. Greene as a pitcher will carry higher risk than Gregorious but undeniably has higher upside given his 2014 Yankee performance. Trading a sure thing avg/slightly below avg major league SS for two 10-20% dicerolls of non-zero production is a terrible deal, and symptomatic of why the Dbacks have fared poorly in recent years while the Yanks and Tigers have succeeded. Could the Dbacks hit a winning lottery ticket on these 2 prospects that fall far out of mlb's top 100? Possible, but it's so remote that the analytical consensus is that the Yanks won this deal. The likes of Craig Calcaterra echo Sullivan's judgment about the Yanks winning this trade, so does Dave Cameron. I look forward to your next screed that praises your own correctness