The state of the trade market

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Ninersphan

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostFri Jul 31, 2015 4:11 pm

STEVE F wrote:Good deal for the Mets. Cespedes probably a better bat than Gomez plus they keep Wheeler.

True, good for this year but a expended a true rental. They only get him for two months he's a free agent at the end of the season. Gomez or Bruce would have been around longer so next year they are in the same position of not having enough offense.
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l.strether

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostFri Jul 31, 2015 4:18 pm

The Mets go the rental route for desperately needed hitting help by trading Rh pitching prospects Micheal Fulmer and Luis Cessa for Of Yoenis Cespedes. Cepsedes was having a strong season for the Tigers, showing both his typical displays of power, speed, and athletic prowess; as well as occasional mental mistakes and streakiness. That being said, he is a huge addition for the Mets and immediately becomes the most feared hitter in their llneup. Cespedes will most likely take over in Lf, with Conforto going back to the minors. Fulmer was the Mets top pitching prospect, and 3rd best prospect overall, so he's a high price to pay for a rental with no compensation pick. But the Mets had no chance for the playoffs without pitching help, and Cespedes gives it to them.

As for the Tigers, Dombrowski keeps doing a brilliant job getting high level pitching talent for players he wasn't planning on re-signing. Fulmer is a big right-hander who was the Mets' 1st-round pick in 2011, consistently throws in the mid-90's into the late innings, and was dominating in AA with a 1.88 ERA and a 1.12 whip and a stunning 8.69 K/9IP ration. So, both he and Daniel Norris--recently acquired in the Price trade--have solid chances to become #3-2 level starters for the Tigers. Cessa, a converted hitter, is a definite throw-in who throws hard but is still working on basic command and control.

So, the trade is a definite win for the Tigers, as they netted a top pitching prospect for a 1/2 year player in a losing season. It's a win, too, for the Mets if they make the playoffs. If not, they traded a top pitching prospect--and possible valuable future trade chip--for a 1/2 year rental.
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Valen

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostFri Jul 31, 2015 6:27 pm

So who are the biggest winners of the trade deadline?

Which buyers helped themselves the most THIS season?
I am liking what Toronto did a lot.

Which sellers potentially helped themselves the most?
I am liking what the Phillies brought on board.
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l.strether

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostFri Jul 31, 2015 7:18 pm

The winners of the 2015 deadline are:

Buyers
1. Houston Astros. For their unexpected playoff run, the Astro's acquired s legitimate #2 starter (Scott Kazmir), a 5-tool center fielder (Carlos Gomez), and a solid mid-rotation starter (Mike Fiers). Kazmir and Fiers join Keuchel, McHugh, and McCullers Jr. to form one of the most formidable rotations in the league. Gomez gives the Astros a top of the rotation hitter, defensive whiz in Cf, and game base-path disruptor all in one. And Gomez and Fiers will be with the team for 1 and 3 more teams respectively. And of all the players the Astros gave up, only one--Cf Brett Phillips--was a blue chip prospect, so their farm system is still nicely stocked.

2. Texas Rangers.
The Rangers only made one deal, but it was a huge one, netting them a left-handed ace for the next 3 1/2 season. They traded away a lot of talent, but Chirinos has played well enough to make losing the questionably hitting Alfaro sustainable. They still have the talented Nomar Mazara and Lewis Brinson as Of prospects to replace Nick Williams, and Jake Thompson--who has #3 starter potential at best--will be replaced by the impressive Luis Ortiz, who has dominated LoA with a 1.72 ERA and a 1.12 Whip. So, the Rangers did very nicely at the deadline.

3. Toronto Blue Jays. Like always, Anthopolous has shown a willingness to empty his minor league system of talent, and he did so again this week. If Tulowitzki stays healthy for much of his tenure, then sending hard-throwing blue chip pitching prospects Hoffman and Castro to Colorado will be worth it, if not that loss will sting. Having sent blue-chip Lh pitching prospect Daniel Norris and solid lh pitching prospects Matt Boyd and Jairo Labourt to Detroit for 1/2 a year of David Price, they will be in even worse shape if they don't make the playoffs. So, this #3 slot entirely depends on a Toronto post-season. If not, Toronto could face another system withdrawal after Antopolous' famous misguided trade with Miami.

Sellers
1. Detroit Tigers. With the Tigers facing a losing season, a barren farm system and 3 players--Cespedes, Soria, and Price--headed to free agency, Dombrowski brilliantly acquired top talent for all three players. He got the three talented lh pitching prospects mentioned above, the hard-throwing blue chip pitching prospect Micheal Fulmer from the Mets, and the power-hitting infielder Jacoby Jones from the Pirates. Dombrowski does have his mess-ups--like the ill-advised Fister deal--but he's shown again this week why he is one of the best GM's in the game.

2. Milwaukee Brewers.
Failing to get Wheeler from the Mets, Doug Melvin turned around and got a better deal from the Astros for 1 1/2 years of Gomez and Mike Fiers. Brett Phillips is a legitimate 5-tool cf with a bettter hit tool than Gomez (if not the sublime D) who will be under team control for over 6 years. Domingo Santana could give them significant power in Rf, and Josh Hader is a solid lh back-of-the-rotation starter who could pitch this year for the Brewers, and Houser is a Rh version of the same. So, it's a nice reboot for a player they could sign and a mid-rotation starter.

3. Philadelphia Phillies. Ruben Amaro definitely got a nice haul for Hamels. However, all three of the prospects he got have some blemishes. Alfaro is obviously a talented defensive catching prospect with power, but he has a questionable hit tool and suffered a major ankle injury costing him the season. Nick Williams is a very talented of with power and speed, who can play cf and rf, but he still strikes out too much. Jake Thompson is a fine pitching prospect with a high floor and #3 potential, but he's not dominating and won't come close to taking Hamels' spot as ace. So, it was a very nice haul for Amaro, but for an ace with Hamels' relatively cheap contract, I'm not sure he couldn't have done better.

Losers
1. San Diego Padres. After his disastrous emptying of his team's farm system last year, Preller needed to recoup by trading away the soon-to-leave Upton and the un-needed Kimbrel. Supposedly, his demands were way too high, and the Padres will end up with just a draft pick for Upton and a closer they still don't need.
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Valen

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostSat Aug 01, 2015 12:16 am

Rangers did make 2 additional moves. They picked up some catcher off waivers.
They traded Tellis to Marlins and a minor prospect for a reliever who could help some.
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STEVE F

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostSat Aug 01, 2015 12:34 am

Toronto helped themselves the most for this year, but they gutted their system to do it.

Texas very smart moves, locking up Hamels for 4 years. It's tough to attract free agent pitchers to that ballpark.

Houston did ok but they were probably going to win anyway since the Angels are letting the field mgr run the front office now, and failed to get the bat they needed.

But for me, watching Freidman and Zaidi roll up their sleeves and go to work with the Dodgers resources was really something. Filled all of their holes without trading any of their top prospects and even ADDING a top 30 prospect (Peraza) to boot! All for Oliveras and a stack of cash. Nobody is saying it, but they trumped everyone else's moves.

They say Padres blew it, but what were they going to do, have a fire sale? Preller went all in during the offseason. All he can really do is keep his fingers crossed and hope it still works out.

Aforementioned Angels watched their division get stronger and did basically nothing about it.

Phillies and Tigers both did a good job grabbing some nice young pieces. Tigers will see a more immediate payoff with two SP's joining there rotation next season, maybe even this September.
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l.strether

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostSat Aug 01, 2015 1:06 am

STEVE F wrote:They say Padres blew it, but what were they going to do, have a fire sale? Preller went all in during the offseason. All he can really do is keep his fingers crossed and hope it still works out.

I would say the Padres did blow it and they should have had a fire sale, which is not always a bad thing. Preller emptied out their system last year, trading away talented players like Matt Wisler, Trea Turner, Max Fried, Joe Ross, Mallex Smith, and Jace Peterson to put together a team that has struggled (and predominantly failed) all season to break .500. They certainly could have done that without Preller sending out those players.

So, crossing their fingers and hoping their losing team suddenly becomes a winner is not really the best option, particularly considering Upton will leave after this year and they could be paying big money to Kimbrel for years for not saving that many games. Upton, who has not flourished in Petco, could have netted them some nice prospects to replenish the system; just look at that nice package Detroit got for 1/2 a year of Cespedes. And Kimbrel certainly could have brought back some nice prospects and more. But Preller was so desperate to even out his loss from last year's trades, he asked for the moon and scared everyone away. He reportedly even asked Arizona for Goldschmidt, which means Cornell didn't teach Preller that much in negotiation tactics. But, he's already shown that... ;)
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Valen

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostMon Aug 03, 2015 3:26 pm

Feeling a little better about Rangers activity after seeing the 2 additions to bullpen. Not sure about the lefty. Good arm but needs to work on the control. Walks in a hitters park can turn in to blowouts fast. Like Dyson. Pitchers with good sinkers and changeups to induce ground balls a definite plus here in Arlington.

Bullpen was in huge need of some upgrades. Probably still is. But probably always will be since Daniels does not believe bullpens are difficult to assemble. I still remember him saying in off season how you can always find some arms to fill a reliable bullpen as we entered spring training without a single reliable lefty out there. And they have spent the entire season trying to find one that can be relied on. Really hopeful Diekman can fill that role.
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teamnasty

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostMon Aug 03, 2015 6:22 pm

Count me in the minority I guess because I don't understand Texas' deadline moves. I don't see them as particularly close to competing this year, or next. I think they gave up a lot of good young players for an expensive starting pitcher who is certainly good, but not in the top echelon, and is old enough that performance decline can start to sink in.
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l.strether

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Re: The state of the trade market

PostMon Aug 03, 2015 8:30 pm

teamnasty wrote:Count me in the minority I guess because I don't understand Texas' deadline moves. I don't see them as particularly close to competing this year, or next. I think they gave up a lot of good young players for an expensive starting pitcher who is certainly good, but not in the top echelon, and is old enough that performance decline can start to sink in.

I don't particularly see Texas competing this year, either, although they're far from eliminated. And they should definitely be competitive next year; we are talking about the mediocre AL West. They should have two legitimate #2 starters in Hamels and Darvish fronting a solid rotation of Lewis, Gonzalez, and Ramirez. Moreland and Fielder are both plus offensive players. Odor and Andrus are a solid keystone, with Odor showing great improvement. Gallo, whether playing Of or 3b, should be Russell Branyan at worst next year, and that's not bad. And Profar, Hamilton, and/or Choo are likely to make contributions next year. So, Texas definitely should compete in their weak division next year.

As to the trade, they definitely gave up some talent, but, as I noted above, it was a reasonable package of sustainable and respectively blemished talent. They didn't give up a Corey Seager or a Lucas Giolito. And Hamels isn't expensive at all for a #2 starter of his caliber. Considering what inferior pitchers like Cain are paid, and what similar starters like Price will be paid, the Rangers are getting a great deal. And if by upper echelon starter you mean # 1 starter caliber, I agree. However, upper echelon should include # 2 starters as well, as they're only a step in command below them. The separation between #2 and #3 starters is the greatest among the standard classifications. So, I'd say they definitely got an upper echelon starter for a reasonable, sustainable prospect package.

For information's sake, here is my list of "Top Echelon pitchers" made up of #1 and #2 starters:
#1 starters (only 5)
Zack Greinke
Clayton Kershaw
Max Scherzer
Felix Hernandez
Sonny Gray
#2 Starters On the Cusp of Being #1s
Chris Sale
Gerrit Cole
Jose Fernandez
David Price
Madison Bumgarner
Chris Archer
Jacob DeGrom
#2 starters
Cole Hamels
Clay Bucholz
Yu Darvish
Matt Harvey
Jon Lester
Johnny Cueto
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