Magic Teams

Joe,

I am unsure I understand “variability” the way you are intending for it to be understood.

For instance, on any plate appearance 66 things can happen (6 columns times 11 outcomes per column). This isn’t even including all the other special circumstances that come up (bunts, steals, H&R, etc). On an x-chart, 20 things can happen. There are only what, say 800 x-chart opportunities per season, while there are 5000+ at bats.

What exactly do you mean when you say x-charts show more variability?

Now when it comes to injuries, I think you are exactly right. But injuries are also a function of the at bats, which again are 7-8 times more prevalent than x-chart rolls. Doesn’t that alone demonstrate that fickle dice impacting the at-bats are way more variable than the defensive charts?

I’m convinced HAL very much does not like the Too Much of a Good Thing thing.

Well put.

The 1st three-four years I played online I bought the strategy guides from strat--certainly with the xl sheet you can manipulate stats almost anyway you want if you are good with macros--I still like the book though because I can scan though it without being in front of a moniter--I did OK but not great pouring throuh all that data. "To much of a good thing" or to much of a bad thing somewhere else.

Last two or three seasons I didn't buy any strategy guide of any sort and just eyeballed the cards like I did way back in basic card days--and started playing a little better (this year was pretty poor though)--I my case I think I over analized all that data. (since they put the Bars under the cards its easy to see without having to count the card--though add those HBP)

I only really play 20XX though, and I usually do have problems with 1st couple of teams till I can get familiar with most of the cards, and I can miss a few good value players for a while at beginning of a season --I wouldn't attempt ATG that way--just too many cards.

I know a lot of people like Joes data--more than a few excellent managers told me they use his guides, but I have enjoyed the game more going "blind" so to speak.

I do think the guys that use these guides can have a leg up--a big leg up if they have that team building intuition to go along with it--In my case I think it kind of blinded my intuition.

I do think a team "type" can outperform the individual stats (or team points rating) with the right combo of players even if it doesn't look that good on paper--a "Magic Team" as JPav says.

for a 12 team keeper league I color code the som spreadsheet so I can "see" the top six tiers of the stats I value most....I use shades of red for things like Ks and DP etc....I think it allows me to "balance" my teams and build a well balanced team.
I find it especially helpful for pitchers as the differences between your 3, 4, 5 can be slight

Here’s a team that I think qualifies and won three straight Championships. There is some variation in the pitching and at DH, but the position players are identical in all three teams.

C Soto
1B S. Rodriguez
2B Kipnis
SS Cozart
3B Moustakas
LF G. Polanco
CF Pederson/M. Upton platoon
RF Kepler/T. Hernandez

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1451967
https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1458387
https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1465344

Here is a minor variation that despite having a run differentia of +181 did not make the playoffs.

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1475757

Players were selected from those rated by Marc Pelletier.

While my two hitters park teams start playoffs, I’m going to rant on this:

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1504161

This is my minimum injury - maximum WAR team. It’s been atrocious so far.

Here’s what we have:

Player and WAR (via FanGraphs)

Bauer 3.2
McCullers 3.0
Estrada 2.5
Miller 2.3
Petit 1.9
Bridwell 1.1
Stratton 1.6
Ynoa 0.4

Judge 8.2
Altuve 7.6
Seager 5.9
Goldschmidt 5.2
Sanchez 4.4
Bogaerts 3.2
Herrera 2.9
Machado 2.6
Gamel 1.8

I get that with 12 all star teams 56.8 wins above replacement doesn’t equate to a 130-32 record. But .333 ball?? And to add injury to insult, after 21 games I’ve had 27 days of injuries on a team purposely designed to have no one injured!

I don’t know what the opposite of magic is, but whatever it might be, this team is it.

End rant.

Joe,

I am unsure I understand “variability” the way you are intending for it to be understood.

For instance, on any plate appearance 66 things can happen (6 columns times 11 outcomes per column). This isn’t even including all the other special circumstances that come up (bunts, steals, H&R, etc). On an x-chart, 20 things can happen. There are only what, say 800 x-chart opportunities per season, while there are 5000+ at bats.

What exactly do you mean when you say x-charts show more variability?

Now when it comes to injuries, I think you are exactly right. But injuries are also a function of the at bats, which again are 7-8 times more prevalent than x-chart rolls. Doesn’t that alone demonstrate that fickle dice impacting the at-bats are way more variable than the defensive charts?

I'm talking about the impact of the x-chart is highly variable because it comes down to whether you can make use of your "break" or not. So, if you get that 1-2 hit off of your 2 SS with two out and no one on, it's probably not going to hurt you. If you get it with the bases loaded and two out, or in a situation where you need a DP and instead get a single, you're setting up a big inning. See?

As for injuries, how often you get the injury roll for your "key" player and how many games he misses (might be none) are highly variable and you can be lucky or unlucky in this regard.

While my two hitters park teams start playoffs, I’m going to rant on this:

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1504161

This is my minimum injury - maximum WAR team. It’s been atrocious so far.

Here’s what we have:

Player and WAR (via FanGraphs)

Bauer 3.2
McCullers 3.0
Estrada 2.5
Miller 2.3
Petit 1.9
Bridwell 1.1
Stratton 1.6
Ynoa 0.4

Judge 8.2
Altuve 7.6
Seager 5.9
Goldschmidt 5.2
Sanchez 4.4
Bogaerts 3.2
Herrera 2.9
Machado 2.6
Gamel 1.8

I get that with 12 all star teams 56.8 wins above replacement doesn’t equate to a 130-32 record. But .333 ball?? And to add injury to insult, after 21 games I’ve had 27 days of injuries on a team purposely designed to have no one injured!

I don’t know what the opposite of magic is, but whatever it might be, this team is it.

End rant.

Ok, this team rates very well, BUT, it does have some warts. Thoughts:
- good offense both ways, but it's concentrated in a few players v RHP. Machado, Herrera, Gamel and Bogaerts don't give you much v RHP.
- You crush lhp
- you have no backup OFer and Gamel and Herrera can both go out for 15 games!
- your SPs aren't great
- Very reliant on Miller and Petit being good.

Summary, this team needs its good players (Sanchez, Goldy, altuve, Judge, Miller, Petit) to be GOOD and the others to not suck to do well.

I gotta check with HAL, but asking my guys not to suck is apparently asking for too much!

I gotta check with HAL, but asking my guys not to suck is apparently asking for too much!

LOL

Ugh. In the Finals, I was down 3-1 with one team, and up 3-1 with the other. Both leagues went to Game 7, and I came up on the short end both times. For the last few seasons now, HAL has just hated me to death.

To make matters worse, I don’t have the link for either mcsoupy’s team or ctwin’s original team that he copied (Zona Coyotes, who won the Championship). However, here are the links to my two Finals teams:

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1500757

https://365.strat-o-matic.com/team/1501010

So although a Magic Team is a team that performs well in two separate leagues, this lineup actually held up across FOUR separate leagues with three unique managers.

If mcsoupy or ctwin22 get a chance, I hope they’ll post their teams here, because until then, you just have to take my word for it.