How Bad Can You Be?

Thanks Niners, that is just wanted I was looking for was the formula they used. Very cool of you to take the time. I agree the ratings book would be good for me because of the keeper leagues and I am very active trader. Thanks again

To better articulate what I've expressed in other threads, using ratings guides does not "lessen" one as a manager. It just means one got assistance in one of many significant aspects of the game. While I do have particular respect for managers that don't use the guides. I also have great respect for many managers who do use the guides.

Ratings guide, What it is In A Nutshell.

I won't get dragged in to a debate over whether it is useful for all managers, or whether it, using one lessens you as a manager as some have suggested in other threads, but rather I will attempt to tell those of you using this thread for actual discussion/learning what it is.

First, it gets back to math. For those that don't know, each Strat card can be broken down into a number of chances each result has of turning up on a roll of the two 6 sided dice. There are three columns on each side with 12 results in each column numbered 2-12. Each positive result ( Hits, walks etc) is given a value, with the least common results of 2 & 12 each earning 1 point, 3 &11 2 points: 4 & 10 3 points and so on until we get to the 7 roll which is 6 points. In total, the results on each side of an advanced card total 108 points. ( Split results are are give a decimal reading, so a split result of 1-10 being a hit, 11-20 being an out on the 2 or 12 roll would count as .5 or half of 1).

As an example of a good leadoff card ( at least for the on base), you generally want a player with 40 or more points of results that get the player on base, whether by hit, walk or HBP on both sides of the card.

So assuming you all understand that basic concept, all the ratings guide does, is the result counting for you. It tells you how many points of hits, on base, gbA's ( helpful for seeing high potential of double play victims) Ball Park HR's etc. It also tells you what the players defensive ratings are, their bunt rating, steal rating, hit & run rating etc.

What it does not do, is tell you where on the card the points fall.

As a quick and dirty example:

Hitter A has 18 points of OB, hitter B has 18 points of on base, seems the same right?

Well hitter A a has Single** on each 7 in all 3 columns ( in know this doesn't actually happen I'm just making an absurd example to make it easy to understand)

While hitter B Has Single** on the 4 and 10 rolls of each column? Who has the better card?? I think most would agree it's hitter A. ( or maybe they really are statistically the same, I never took statistics and that's a discussion that I know is over my head)


So is the rating guide a replacement for looking at the cards???

I'm pretty sure I've shown it isn't, but is it a tool helpful in evaluating the cards for things like overall power, propensity to hit into double plays, clutch ratings, etc??

Yes, especially because the ratings guide is released about a month before the cards are. For people in keeper leagues, it helps evaluate off season trades, and begins to help the manager have and idea of the relative strengths and weakness of their teams.

Hope this helps, for those that have never seen the ratings guide, and wondered what all the fuss was about.

18 points are 18 points, regardless of where they fall on a card. Assuming perfectly random "rolls," it wouldn't matter if they were on 7's or 4, 10.

Single** on 7 in each column and Single** on 4 and 10 in each column have identical probabilities - both cards should be considered equal if everything else on the card is the same.

Using ratings guides is just one of many ways to "count" the cards. I would guess that most on-line players count cards in some way - whether it be just a quick qualitative glance at the general look of the card or some other quantitative method of determining possible results. I certainly do. Those that do not do some counting of the cards likely put themselves at a substantial disadvantage to those that do.

However, whether it be a quick qualitative look at a card, a paper and pencil counting of results, use of a spreadsheet to sort results, use of a ratings guide, or use of Diamond Dope for ATG or 1986 sets - these methods only vary by precision and speed of getting the data. They do not tell you who are the top value players. The data is the data, no matter how you decide to gather it. I am not sure why the method used for counting the possible play results should make much difference. The player that is most sophisticated in gathering the data does have an advantage (as they should) - but not one that any other player could not have if they desired.

There is a difference if one buys full ratings systems, such as that offered by Joe the Jet. With his system you get not just the data, but also an analysis of the data (from what I understand - I have not used these ratings myself). These ratings systems do tell you who are the best value players. I suspect many of us would have trouble competing with players that buy these ratings systems (at least at the start of of a 2xxx season). The better players probably learn over the course of a season who the high-value players are, but it may take a while.

Using ratings guides is just one of many ways to "count" the cards. I would guess that most on-line players count cards in some way - whether it be just a quick qualitative glance at the general look of the card or some other quantitative method of determining possible results. I certainly do. Those that do not do some counting of the cards likely put themselves at a substantial disadvantage to those that do.

Using ratings guides is not just one of the many ways to count the cards. It's a way to have all the cards counted for you. Ratings guides tell you the actual results of card possibilities that actual card reading usually does not. I, myself, have never counted a card in my life. I learned, as many have, through game play how to read and interpret cards. I may have put myself at a substantial disadvantage by not buying a ratings guide or counting cards, and I probably have, but I'm still a successful manager who wins 2-5 total championships a year.

As I said before, there is nothing wrong with getting outside assistance in player card evaluation/results determination. However, one getting that assistance can't really deny he or she is getting it. It's the very reason he or she purchased the guides.

I, myself, have never counted a card in my life. I learned, as many have, through game play how to read and interpret cards.

l.strether - What do you mean when you use the phrase "read and interpret cards"?

I, myself, have never counted a card in my life. I learned, as many have, through game play how to read and interpret cards.

l.strether - What do you mean when you use the phrase "read and interpret cards"?

I mean look at the cards and determine whether or not the card would be a likely success. I mean looking for productive results on 6's-8's on a hitters card and the absence of such on a pitcher's card. I mean scanning for asterisks on hitters cards for your hitters park team and the absences of them on pitchers for that team. I mean looking at the make-up of the card's patterns and symbols and determining whether or not a card is worth its money and/or is good for your team.

Those of us well familiar with the meanings of a card's symbols and arrangements should be able to, and can, just look over a card and determine these things. We shouldn't have to count out a cards results to successfully, if not completely, do so. If you've seen The Matrix, you remember the guys in the ship who could just look at the green symbols and see the entirety of The Matrix itself. They were so familiar with the symbols and arrangements, they could just look at them and know what they meant. That is what experienced SOM players can do when they look at a card and read and interpret it.

The Ratings guide saves time and money. I have too little of either. If I was independently wearlthy had more time on my hands I would go through the time of looking at the cards purchasing the board game set before I played the online game. I find it infinitely easier/less time consuming to have the information indexed in one spot than going through every card image for the online game once it's released.

How can you say reading the cards don't give you the result? What the heck are you reading? Why look at them at all if doesn't give you some idea of what the results will be or as a way to compare players?

The Ratings guide saves time and money. I have too little of either. If I was independently wearlthy had more time on my hands I would go through the time of looking at the cards purchasing the board game set before I played the online game. I find it infinitely easier/less time consuming to have the information indexed in one spot than going through every card image for the online game once it's released.

Don't get defensive, Niners. I said there was nothing wrong with using the guides. If you don't want to read and interpret the cards yourself, I have no problem with that.

How can you say reading the cards don't give you the result? What the heck are you reading? Why look at them at all if doesn't give you some idea of what the results will be or as a way to compare players?

I did say reading cards gives you results. You misread my post and need to re-read it.


P.s. You don't have to be "independently wealthy" or have extra time on your hands to read and interpret the cards. It doesn't take that long.

In any given year there are between 600 and 800+ cards if you have that much time on your hands thAts way more than I have as a stay at home dad. And you keep implying using a guide makes someone a lesser manager even if you don't out and out say it. So much like you keep feeling the need to defend yourself when "attacked" I will too.