Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

Question.

I have Jason Kipnis on my team. The Sim Fielding has

X Total 113
X Outs 70
He has 19 Errors, does that mean that out of the 113 chances he has committed 19 errors and given up a base hit the other 24 times while recording 70 outs? That would be 61% success rate. I know he is not a great 2B but that seems very low for a 3e29. He does lead my team in HR's and I have Miguel Cabrera.

chasenally wrote:Question.

I have Jason Kipnis on my team. The Sim Fielding has

X Total 113
X Outs 70
He has 19 Errors, does that mean that out of the 113 chances he has committed 19 errors and given up a base hit the other 24 times while recording 70 outs? That would be 61% success rate. I know he is not a great 2B but that seems very low for a 3e29. He does lead my team in HR's and I have Miguel Cabrera.

Actually, according to probabilities and the error die rolls and range chart, it's almost bang on what should happen.

According to the probabilities table developed by DeanTSC (I'll look for the link in a moment), the likelihood of an error is 17.6%, with a second baseman e29. As a range 3 rating, the probability of a base hit is 20% on the range chart. The probability of a hit or an error - that is, the on base percent - 34.073%. If you multiply that percent by 113 chances, it means that you would expect, on average for Kipnis at 3e29, that he would yield 38.5 on base results. This is very close to the actual number of 43 on base results.

(By the way, 34.073% is = .176 + .2 - (.176*.2). Or, it's the chance of an error plus the chance of a base hit minus the chance of a combined base hit and error result).

But we're not done yet! There are also times when Kipnis is required to hold a runner on second base - i.e. when there is a runner on second that HAL will say to hold (usually someone with a good second steal rating), and when there is a right handed batter at the plate. In that circumstance, Kipnis' range rating goes from a 3 to a 4 (10% extra base hit chance) PLUS all # readings on the X chart become base hits! The changes the chance of a base hit from 20% to 50%! According to a quick poll of some recent seasons I've had (you can tell this on the fielding stats for players with a 1 range rating), this will probably increase the number of base hits yielded per year by about 4 for an entire year. 113 chances sounds like you might be about 3/4 of the way through your season, so that would be about 3 hits you would expect Kipnis to have yielded from holding runners (or infield in, as well, since that has the same effect on Kipnis' fielding). So add 3 to 38.5 and you get 41.5 expected on base results, compared to 43 actual on base results.

To compare actual experiences with other second basemen, in a recent season I had with Zobrist at 2b, 1e8, he actually gave up 9 on base results in 134 x chart rolls. 3 of these were errors (below expectations at 4.6% odds per x chart roll), and a whopping 6 hits were from holding runners or infield in. So even the very reliable Zobrist gave up 9 "on base" results on 134 X chart rolls.

Gotta love this game!

The offense vs defense article, and the spreadsheet with the calculations was originally posted in the strategy section on the old forum:

http://forum.onlinegames.strat-o-matic. ... m.php?f=21

You can see the offence vs defense thread at the top of this forum.

Unfortunately, the link that DeanTSC gave doesn't work anymore, I think. I don't know if there is another link that works now.

However, if someone can tell me how to post the spreadsheet on google (like people do with rosters on the keeper leagues), I can do that for everyone, so that everyone can see it.

Can anyone tell me how to post a spreadsheet online like people do with the keeper leagues?

I don't know what people are using on this site, but on another site I visit, many people use www.dropbox.com to post files. It's free.

Thanks coyote303! I'll try that later today!

docs.google.com

sign in (or create a new one its free) and upload the xls. Then in the settings for that file make it public and it gives you an URL you can post her.e

coyote303 wrote:I don't know what people are using on this site, but on another site I visit, many people use http://www.dropbox.com to post files. It's free.

coyote303 - Thanks. With dropbox, it looks like you need to send people the link by email, instead of just posting the link on a website. Am I right about this, or is there a way to post a link on a webpage like this for people to access?

It would be nice if we didn't have to use real email (or twitter or facebook) to do it.

I tried google documents. It didn't seem to like uploading that file. The formulas seemed to get dropped when it went into google documents.

Maybe I will keep trying with dropbox. At the end of all of this, I might just have to offer to people to send me a PM with their email if they want to get a copy of the spreadsheet, but I will keep trying with dropbox.

I have also PM'd "Mean Dean" who I think is the same user as DeanTSC at the old site. If he PM's back maybe I can get him to set it up as well.

Coyote303, if you can help me with some advice on dropbox that would be great.

Geoff

Thank you gbrookes for that detailed explanation. Not really worth having that bad a fielding 2b even if he can hit.

Mike

chasenally wrote:Thank you gbrookes for that detailed explanation. Not really worth having that bad a fielding 2b even if he can hit.

Mike

Actually, if he's got more home runs than miggy, it probably IS worth having him, especially given his low salary. I'm assuming your in a park that gives lefties a good chance to hit home runs.

If Kipnis gives up and extra 20 base hits compared to an average starting 2b, in my calcs that's probably worth about 8 or 9 homeruns with the loss of a few double plays thrown in. If Kipnis is hitting 10 or more home runs than a typical starting 2b, then you're probably ahead of the game based on Kipnis' reasonable salary.