Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

Chris Carpenter (2011) costs $4.94. He looks like he might be fairly effective against left handed hitters, but seems to give up a boat load of hits. His WHIP is 1.26, which, in my opinion, is simply too high for a pitcher that costs that much. I've sort of made up my mind not to go with Carpenter and have cobbled together a rotation of * and non* starters, but I wanted to hear what you guys think about Carpenter, in particular whether he is overpriced.

This is what he did for me in a Keeper at Rangers Ballpark.

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/sim/815217

Ummm... No.

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/team/814915

Overpriced is so relative now that the pricing is pretty good. If you think he is overpriced, compared to whom? Gallardo has way more hr given up but a better whip. Masterson is better vs rhp, but not vs lhp. I'd rather have him over Masterson.

My bad-stats were for 2010

tony best wrote:I checked 8 seasons

Era 4.37 high 5.28 low 3.74
W 16 lost 16.5 best 16-14 worst 12-18

Priced right?

really depends on the ballpark. in coors that's a very valuable season and underpriced. in petco its an overpriced pitcher

Okay got the right season

Did 9 seasons
Carpenter drafted all 9 times 4.23 14-17
Masterson drafted 6 times 4.16 10-10
Gallardo drafted 6 times 4.02 13-14

I was surprised-winner Gallardo! and based on this sample Carpenter a bit over priced.

in 10 completed leagues, all 3 were used (save for Masterson once).

All stats in average (median) format

Carpenter: 18.2 (18.5) Wins, 12.3 (12) Losses, 3.75 (3.84) ERA, 1.31 (1.34) WHIP, 208.4 (206) K's, 27.4 (26.5) HR
Masterson: 14.56 (14) Wins, 15.1 (16) Losses, 4.23 (3.98) ERA, 1.42 (1.39) WHIP, 180 (186) K's, 24.7 (24) HR
Gallardo: 13.7 (13) Wins, 14.7 (14.5) Losses, 4.34 (4.39) ERA, 1.34 (1.35) WHIP, 229 (231) K's, 36 (34) HR

2/3 best seasons of any of these 29, as well as 2/3 of the worst seasons were by Masterson. The data to me shows that Carpenter is a much better value than either Masterson or Gallardo, even though both cost more. In fact Gallardo's 2 best seasons were on my teams in this data, apparently people don't realize he is only worth it in a pitchers park.

This comment is directed not at the Carpenter debate, but at the pricing of starting pitchers in general, and whether the pitcher's hitting is actually considered by strat as a factor in pricing starting pitchers' salaries.

I believe that it IS factored in. My best example is Daniel Hudson, whose card seems obviously overpriced to me - unless I adjust my theory to include the theoretical value of his good hitting.

The implications of this question for team building are fairly important for a cap league. If I am right, then Daniel Hudson would be somewhat overpriced in any DH cap league, since the value of his pitchers hitting would be irrelevant with the use of the DH.

I can maybe provide other examples to back this up. The mathematical analysis is a bit tedious for a friendly discussion, but I can provide it if someone really wants me to. But without necessarily getting into the tedious details, do others have opinions on whether the pitchers hitting is factored into the salaries for pitchers - especially starting pitchers?

gbrookes wrote:This comment is directed not at the Carpenter debate, but at the pricing of starting pitchers in general, and whether the pitcher's hitting is actually considered by strat as a factor in pricing starting pitchers' salaries.

I believe that it IS factored in. My best example is Daniel Hudson, whose card seems obviously overpriced to me - unless I adjust my theory to include the theoretical value of his good hitting.

The implications of this question for team building are fairly important for a cap league. If I am right, then Daniel Hudson would be somewhat overpriced in any DH cap league, since the value of his pitchers hitting would be irrelevant with the use of the DH.

I can maybe provide other examples to back this up. The mathematical analysis is a bit tedious for a friendly discussion, but I can provide it if someone really wants me to. But without necessarily getting into the tedious details, do others have opinions on whether the pitchers hitting is factored into the salaries for pitchers - especially starting pitchers?

I know for a fact all aspects of the card are factored into the price, by how much is a secret. BBrool does (or at least did in the past) the pricing, but his model is to him only. It's a good model, except I think he overvalues OB too much (for instance check out the catchers with tone of OBP but nothing else, they are always 5+ mil but suck balls in the game). But for sure he factors in every part of the card, and bases the pricing off a 10/10 9/9 ballpark. Of course that lends to some bargains if you play in extreme parks.