Defensive Fielding Ratings by team predictions

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jongp

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Defensive Fielding Ratings by team predictions

PostSun Sep 15, 2013 12:54 pm

I'll start:
Angels
C- Ianetta- 4e+2
Hang Conger- 3e+1
1b-Trumbo- 3
Pujols-2
2b-Kendrick-2
ss- Aybar-3
3b-Callespo-3
Rf-Hamilton-3
CF-Bourjous-1
Of-Trout-1/1
OF-Shuck-3
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STEVE F

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Re: Defensive Fielding Ratings by team predictions

PostSun Sep 15, 2013 3:16 pm

Dodgers
Ellis 2-3
fedoroiwiz 3 0
Gonzalez 1
Ellis 3
Hanley 3
Uribe 1
Schumaker cf/rf 3 2b 4
Crawford 2+3
Puig rf/cf 3-4
Ethier RF 2 cf 3
Kemp 3
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rolandzeut

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Re: Defensive Fielding Ratings by team predictions

PostSun Sep 15, 2013 7:01 pm

Rockies

C Rosario 3(+1) / Torrealba 3(+1)
1b Helton 2 / Cuddyer 3
2b Lemahieu 2
SS Tulo 1
3B Arenado 1
Lf Cargo 1(-4)
Cf Fowler 2(0)
Rf Cuddyer 3(-1)
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NYY82602

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Re: Defensive Fielding Ratings by team predictions

PostSun Sep 15, 2013 7:48 pm

Yankees (so many more players this year!)

C Stewart 2 (-3)
C Romine 2 (0)
1B Overbay 3
1B/3B Reynolds 2/3
2B Cano 1
SS/3B Nunez 3/4
SS/3B Nix 3/3
SS Jeter 4
3B Rodriguez 3
LF Soriano 2 (-2)
CF Gardner 1 (+1)
RF Ichiro 2 (-3)
LF Wells 3 (0)
LF/RF Granderson 3 (0)
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apolivka

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Re: Defensive Fielding Ratings by team predictions

PostMon Sep 23, 2013 6:08 pm

NYY82602 wrote:Yankees (so many more players this year!)

...3B Rodriguez 3
LF Soriano 2 (-2)
...


I don't follow they Yankees much, other than some general happiness that they aren't likely to make the playoffs this year. However are you predicting that _Alfonso_ Soriano will get a "2" this year? I've watched him play LF for years in a cubs uniform, and he is likely to be one of the worst outfielders I've ever seen. I don't outright say he is THE worst only because Carlos Lee is still out there, I think? Soriano has got a "5" for the last 3-4 years, and it's highly deserved.

If there is some other, younger, Soriano out there, forgive my Yankee ignorance.
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NYY82602

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Re: Defensive Fielding Ratings by team predictions

PostMon Sep 23, 2013 11:25 pm

You're right, he won't get a 2. But all the advanced fielding metrics say he's quite good out there; and has been that way his whole career as an outfielder. I had believed him to be terrible as everyone says. But having watched him play for the second half of this year, I have to say that he is in fact pretty good, IMO. He misplays some balls and looks bad doing so, which probably leads to that reputation. But that's taken into account by his abysmal error runs saved number, and even so he grades out quite well. He does seem to cover a lot of ground, and in the end that's what's important in an outfielder defensively. But strat seems to grade off public perception, so he will probably get a 4. Although frankly, he is far better than Granderson, who should get a 4 but probably won't.
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apolivka

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Re: Defensive Fielding Ratings by team predictions

PostTue Sep 24, 2013 8:41 am

Well, Soriano does have a decent arm, but his "5" is way more than just reputation. He does indeed "cover ground" due to his speed, but gets about the worst jump on the ball in the majors. He breaks back on balls that barely reach the outfield, takes horrible angles on balls over his head etc. But, the worst is when he just basically stands there and doesn't appear to even try to make the play. (Maybe that was just part of being a Cub, and has improved with the Yanks)

Granderson deserves a 4? Wow, he must have slipped quite a bit in a few years. I always thought he was a pretty solid 2 in CF playing in Comerica that has a TON of outfield surface.
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NYY82602

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Re: Defensive Fielding Ratings by team predictions

PostTue Sep 24, 2013 10:38 am

Sori does get poor jumps sometimes, and when he looks bad he looks really bad (although with the Yanks his effort has been good out there). I guess I just think there's a discrepancy between what is considered important for an outfielder and what really is. E.G. breaking back a step or two on bloops to the outfield will rarely cost you the play as a LF, because either the SS is there or it was hit sharply enough that you likely wouldn't have gotten there. Only a very small window of possible hits will actually cost you the play. Also for example, the other day I was at a game where he took a bad route back and looked completely silly on a ball he should've had, despite it being a play that many LFers are not fast enough to make. But my eyeball test seems to match the metrics such as UZR, which are considered accurate over 3 or more year periods: Soriano makes jaw-droppingly bad plays sometimes, but much more often he makes some fairly tough plays look easy, which in the end is more valuable for an outfielder.

As for Curtis, he's deteriorated significantly in every aspect of his game. His first few years, through his best year in 2007 when he hit .302, his defense was extremely good, gold glove good in fact. But it started to slip, and has been well below average every year since, excluding one anomaly in 2010. Interestingly, after 2008 his batting averages also tanked, and the 2nd half of 2010 and first half of '11 were the only stretches where it was a little higher. I believe the common factor is his vision, which the yankees expressed some concern about a couple of years ago. He now swings and misses at an absurd rate far higher than he used to, and he takes atrocious routes on fly balls very consistently. So yes, he looks like a totally different player than he used to be.
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qksilver69

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Re: Defensive Fielding Ratings by team predictions

PostTue Sep 24, 2013 11:06 am

Fun exercise, but just a note on catcher arms, I saw Iannetta listed as a +2 arm, Conger as +1. Last year Iannetta had a 0 arm with around 25% CS, and Conger has a 25% CS this year, so I doubt Conger is a +1, likely Conger will be 0 and Iannetta +1.

Roughly the C arm should be along these lines:
CS% ARM
0-10 +3
10-15 +2
15-20 +1
20-25 0
25-30 -1
30-35 -2
35-40 -3
40-45 -4
45-50 -5

This is also impacted by how many steal attempts are made against the C per inning caught as well as general reputation, so the above is not absolute, but the average for CSs is usally in the 20-25 range so we should see more neutral arms there. Good stuff though, always fun trying to predict these ratings.
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artie4121

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Re: Defensive Fielding Ratings by team predictions

PostTue Sep 24, 2013 2:47 pm

Mets
c - d'Arnaud 3
1b - Duda 4
Davis 3
Satin 3
2b - Murphy 3
ss - Quintenilla - 2
Tejada - 3
3b Wright 2
Young 2
Legares 1
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