I have
my own simplistic run production formula, that's kinda based on an average to good hitter as 100 points. The formula also works roughly well in terms of predicting or interpreting the balance ratings for batters. Using my formula, to the extent that the batter's run production versus Right handed pitchers is better than his run production versus left handed pitchers - for every 10 points of difference, that equates to a 1R balance rating. It works pretty consistently for me, when I look at batters. The same works for pitchers, but then it's more or less a 1R rating for every 7 points of run production factors, instead of every 10 points for batters.
To answer your question, compare Schafer's card to Bogusevic's card. Bogusevic's card versus LHP is only very slightly better than Schafer's card, but Bogusevic is better against RHP than Schafer.
Here's how I score their cards, using their home parks (Turner for Schafer, Wrigley for Bogusevic):
Run production factors (my own concoction):
Walks and HBP - 1.4 times the card die roll numbers
Singles - 2 times
doubles - 3.25 times
triples - 4.4 times
homeruns - 5.75 times
Die roll counting is as follows:
roll of: = die roll chances
2 = 1 die roll chance
3 = 2 die roll chances
4 = 3 die roll chances
5 = 4 die roll chances
6 = 5 die roll chances
7 = 6 die roll chances
8 = 5 die roll chances
9 = 4 die roll chances
10 = 3 die roll chances
11 = 2 die roll chances
12 = 1 die roll chance
Where there is a split result on a particular die roll, you must multiply the split (as a decimal) times the die roll chances for that roll, to get the partial die roll chances for that roll. So, on a die roll of 5 (on any column), if there is a split of homerun 1-8 and double 9-20, there are 8 out of 20 chances for a homerun, or .4, and 12 out of 20 chances for a double, or .6. A roll of 5 with this split means that the die roll chances for a homerun are .4 times 4, or 1.6 die roll chances for a homerun, and for a double they are .6 times 4, or 2.4 chances for a double.
Rounded to nearest whole numbers
Schafer vs LHPSingles - 1.8 times 2, rounded is 4.
And that's it. No ballpark singles or homeruns.
Just 4.Schafer vs RHPWalks/HBP - 15 die rolls times 1.4 = 21 points
Ballpark singles - 7 (5 die rolls times .7 ballpark times 2 run prodcution factors)
Singles - 13.65 die roll chances times 2 = 27 points
Doubles - 2.2 die roll chances times 3.25 = 7
Triples - 2.2 die roll chances times 4.4 = 10
Homeruns - .15 die roll chances times 5.75 = 1 point
No ballpark homerun chances
Total points
vs RHP - 21+7+27+7+10+1 = 73 points.
Normally, I also add 10 points for N power - that makes
83 points.4 points vs LHP, 83 points vs RHP, difference is 79 points. Divide by 10 and round is 8R. So I agree with you, 6R seems low to me for Schafer.
Now let's look at
Bogusevic who is rated as 9R:
vs LHPwalk/hbp - 2 die roll chances - times 1.4 = 3 points
no ballpark singles
1 single die roll chance times 2 = 2 points
doubles - .5 times 3.25 = 2 points
total vs LHP - 7 pointsvs RHP (using his home park, Wrigley field)
walks/HBP - 7 die roll chances times 1.4= 10 points
ballpark singles - 5 die rolls times .45 (Wrigley) times 2 = 4 points (rounded down)
singles - 17.4 die roll chances times 2 = 35 points
doubles - 5 die roll chances times 3.25 = 16 points
triples - 1 die roll chance times 4.4= 4 points
homeruns - 3.5 die roll chances times 5.75 = 20 points
ballpark homeruns - 6 die roll chances times .45 (Wrigley) times 5.75 = 16 points
Total points
versus RHP - 105 points, plus 10 for N power =
116 points.Difference between L and R = 116 minus 7, = 109. Divided by 10 is 11R. Max Strat ever assigns is 9R. Clearly he is 9R or better.
Hope this helps! Feel free to ask follow-up questions!
Geoff
Posted: Sat Apr 05, 2014 10:16 am