Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

Here ya go folks, Imma take a stab at it. As things stand now I see it...

Washington Nationals 9:1
Los Angeles Dodgers 10:1
Seattle Mariners 10.5:1
St. Louis Cardinals 12.5:1
Detroit Tigers 13:1
Boston Red Sox 14.5:1
Anaheim Angels 15.5:1
Pittsburg Pirates 15.5:1
Cleveland Indians 16.5:1
San Francisco Giants 22:1
Toronto Blue Jays 22.5:1
Miami Marlins 32:1
Baltimore Orioles 39:1
Kansas City Royals 39:1
Chicago Cubs 39:1
New York Yankees 43.5:1
San Diego Padres 60.5:1
Oakland Athletics 61.5:1
Cincinnati Reds 73:1
New York Mets 76:1
Milwaukee Brewers 84.5:1
Chicago White Sox 90:1
Tampa Bay Rays 99:1
Colorado Rockies 166:1
Atlanta Braves 199:1
Arizona Diamondbacks 221:1
Texas Rangers 500:1
Philadelphia Phillies 750:1
Houston Astros 1000+:1
Minnesota Twins 1000+:1

I can see several teams that I instinctively want to tweak but this is what I arrived at with my preliminary numbers. Have at it peanut gallery. Where would you lay your $10,000 in play money? Bonus wager: For even money would you take the world series winner from the top 6 teams (was, lad, sea, stl, Det, or Box) or from the "field" of other 24 teams?

Yes I know there's a lot of offseason left but this is my assessment of where things stand now. have at it ladies...

Colorado Rockies 166:1

I think I'll buy a lottery ticket instead of bet on my Rockies. Their actual odds of their winning are about the same as hitting all six numbers, but the lottery pays better!

Some of those predictions--particularly the 43.5:1 one--are pretty interesting. What was your method of arriving at these predictions? Did you do analyses of these teams and how did you do them?

I think you have the Indians too close to success.

Turtle, compared to Vegas I am much higher on the Indians and Pirates than any other teams, and slightly more bullish on the Mariners and Cardinals. Vegas loves the Cubs and Angels more than I do.

Strether, yes this is the product of my own analysis and when time permits I'll post some thoughts about my method.

Re: the Indians I see their pitching staff making important leaps forward, not just Kluber, but guys like Carrasco and Bauer. I also think that Francona is a fine manager who gets the most out of his talent, similar to Showalter repeatedly exceeding expectations in Baltimore. Detroit appears vulnerable on age. Much depends on Scherzer's ultimate landing spot of course, which is why these odds reflect my thinking as to where things stand now.

teamnasty wrote:Strether, yes this is the product of my own analysis and when time permits I'll post some thoughts about my method.

If you want to post thoughts on your method, that's cool. However, I'm really just interested in your method itself. For example, how exactly did you determine the Blue Jays have a 22.5:1 chance of winning the title? So, I'm looking forward to your sharing your method. It should be interesting.

As to the Indians, even if Carrasco wasn't a fluke and Bauer learns to manage his pitch count--which are only possibilities--the 8th best odds in MLB for Cleveland does seem generous. They've only got big holes in their lineup Bourn and Swisher were supposed to fill, and they don't know if Ramirez is a full-time player or Lindor is replace him.

Strether, as I stated in reply to Turtle above, I acknowledge that my opinion of Cleveland is more bullish than the prevailing conventional wisdom, and that Cleveland and Pittsburg are where I differ the most in an upwards direction from the CW.

The Reader's Digest version of method is to calculate my odds of winning the division and separately of securing a wild card spot for each team. Then I multiply the odds by 1/8 vs 1/16 respectively. One simple example to illustrate the point then I gotta go for a bit: Assume you believe the Dodgers have 100% odds to win the NL West. Then under my system they'd be a 12.5% shot at winning the world series. Phrased in terms of Vegas odds, they'd be 7:1 against.

Talk later.

I appreciate your reader's digest vision, but you don't say how you arrived at your method. Why exactly do you multiply each team's predicted odds to win their division by 1/8 and 1/16; how did you come by those numbers? As a humanities guy, I'm fascinated by how people formulate their number systems. So, I look forward to the mechanical "madness" to your method.

In Vegas terms, futures bets are house friendly bets, at least the odds rarely favor the bettor on ANY team or single bet. Vegas is giving the Indians a higher payout, as he mentions, I would not even be happy with the the Vegas odds. ... But I sure do hope the Indians have a great season! A Kipnis Comeback!