Fri Jun 26, 2015 1:10 am
To me, the easiest comparaison is between Stanton and Abreu. Both are right-handed, both3L and both have no injury risk beyond 3 games. For ease of calculation, let's assume that spending 80M is good for 80 wins--- all other things being equal---and we'll assume that a production of 10 runs, or saving 10 runs, is usually worth 1 win over the course of a 162 games season.
Vs rhp, Stanton has similar TOtal base to Abreu's (stanton has a nod more, actually) but Stanton has 4 more on-base chances---which is also 4 less chances to get out. So let's simply and say that Stanton has four more walks than Abreu.
These 4 extra walks vs rhp on the cards will translate overall in 9 extra walks for Stanton over a full season---and 9 extra outs for Abreu. In linear weight formulas, a walk is usually worth 0.34 runs and an out costs -0.1 runs, so the net gain for Stanton is 9 x 0.44, roughly 4 runs, or 0.4M difference. But in fact, the cost of not getting on-base goes a bit beyond this penalty, because the team as a whole will also have 9 lesser plate appearances with Abreu on the team as compared to the team with Stanton on. In this era of pitchers, chances of scoring are lower than what it has been recently, but still we can assume that the extra penalty will on average cost another run, so Abreu's card vs rhp is at least 0.5m lower than Stanton's card.
Furthermore, Stanton has much better peripherals---6.8 gbA only vs Abreu's 22 (I won't get into the maths, and this difference is worth roughly a quarter of a million), and while Stanton's clutch is negative, it is less brutal than Abreu's -11 (another 0.25M extra for Stanton). To complete the picture, Stanton has full of Ks, while Abreu has 4 more gbC/flyA- a good thing for Abreu, but the value is relatively negligeable (0.1M in favor of Abreu).
So overall, Abreu's card vs rhp is worth 0,9M less than Stanton's card. If we assume a 30/70 lhp/rhp ratio, and assuming that both 3L is truly indicative of both cards' value, Stanton should be worth roughly 0.4M better vs lhp than Abreu---and indeed Stanton has more on-base and more power vs lhp than Abreu. So offensively, I have a difference estimation of 1.3M.
Abreu is a slow runner 1-11, he's more likely to get out caught stealing or picked off than having stolen bases, and his capacity to be held by the defense when on first (and thereby reduce the defense's ability) will not be as universal as Stanton who has the leading star. These stats are difficult to gauge, but I believe Stanton's running ability is at least worth 3 runs, while Abreu's running abilities have barely positive value--for another quarter million for Stanton.
And while Abreu has barely average defense, Stanton has good defense and superior arm rating. My call is that Stanton will save 7 runs vs an average fielder, whereas Abreu is a bit weaker--in fact lets assume that Abreu will be dh-ing and let's give the edge to Stanton for 0.7 M.
Bottom-line, either Stanton is a real bargain, or Abreu is quite overpriçed. (Or maybe a little of both actually)
