Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

The MLB draft is this Monday, and I've made my predictions for them. I did ok last year, and was particularly happy to predict my Giants would nab Tyler Beede at 15. While I, of course, relied on outside sources like BA and Baseball Prospectus for my info on the players, my predictions and comments are my own. I based them on my knowledge of the players, the needs of each team, and each teams drafting tendencies in the past 5+ years.

There are no clear Kris Bryants, Bryce Harpers, or Stephen Strasburgs in this draft, but it is (obviously) rich in quality shortstops and high school pitchers and outfielders:

1. ARI--Dansby Swanson, SS, Vanderbilt. The smooth-swinging Swanson should replace either Owens or Ahmed by 2017.
2. HOU--Alex Bregman, SS, LSU. Bregman could also make a quick impact, taking over SS from Lowrie and moving the big Correa to 3b.
3. COL--Brendan Rogers, SS, HS (Fla). The powerful SS Rogers would join Trevor Story as the possible future replacements of Tulo at SS.
4. TEX--Dillon Tate, RHP, UCSB--The hard throwing Tate would immediately become Texas' best pitching prospect and could advance quickly.
5. HOU--Daz Cameron, OF, HS (GA). Mike Cameron's son is a four-tool talent who could join a talented outfield with Marisnick and Springer.
6. MIN--Tyler Jay, LHP, Illinois. The Twins need starting pitching, particularly left-handed SPs, and Jay could join the rotation next year.
7. BOS--Andrew Benitendi, OF, Arkansas. The pure hitting Beritendi is Cherington's type of player, and he could move Ramirez to DH where he belongs.
8. CWS--Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt. The hard-throwing Fulmer could follow Rodon's quick ascent and join him and the Shark in the rotation
9. CHC--Garrett Whitley, OF, HS (Ny). Fowler isn't Theo's long-term answer at CF, and the 5-tool Whitley could fill that spot immediately
10. PHI--Kyle Tucker, OF, HS (Fla). Philly is short on blue-chip out-field prospect; the powerful Tucker would immediately become their best.
11. CIN--Kyle Funkhouser, RHP, Louisville. The Reds love college pitchers, and Funkhouser is a local one who could advance quickly.
12. MIA--Trenton Clark, OF, HS (Tex). Yelich and Ozuna have taken steps backward, so Marlins can't pass on the speedy Cf Clark.
13. TB--Nick Plummer, OF, HS (Mic). The Rays outfield is far from settled, so the sweet-swinging Plummer would be a welcome addition.
14. ATL--Phil Bickford, RHP, JC (Nev). The Braves love Juco players, and Bickford was one of the nation's best two years ago.
15. MIL--Walker Buehler, RHP, Nevada. The Brewers need immediate rotation help, the slight but hard-throwing Buehler could provide it.
16. NYY--Ashe Russell, RHP, HS (Ind). Besides Severino and Clarkin, the Yankees pitching cupboard is bare; the solid sturdy Russell would help.
17. CLE--Mike Nikorak, RHP, HS (Pa). The Indians are also low on pitching, so the big hurler Nikorak would be definitely welcome.
18. SF--James Kaprelian, RHP, UCLA. The Giants need back-end rotation help and hope the high floor-low ceiling Kaprelian could give it.
19. PIT--Kolby Allard, LHP, HS (CAL). Besides Cole, PIT's rotation is old, so the injured fireballer Allard could join Glasnow as their future starters.
20. OAK--Jon Harris, RHP, Missouri St. Beane loves college pitchers and will hope to repeat his success with Gray with the savvy Harris.
21. KC--Cornelius Randolph, SS, HS (Ga). KC's system is low on solid hitters. Randolph has one of the best bats in the draft and could be their future 2b.
22. DET--Tyler Stephenson, C, Hs (Ga). Unsure of McCann, The Tigers will pounce on the big, powerful, solid defender Stephenson as his possible replacement.
23. STL--Nathan Kirby, LHP, Virginia. The Cards love college pitchers, and lefty Kirby throws a bit harder than Gonzalez
24. LAD--Brady Aiken, LHP, IMG Acad. The Dodgers will hope Aiken pulls a Giolito and returns to his original dominant self. At this pick, it would be worth the risk.
25. BAL--Richie Martin, SS, Florida. Martin is a better pure hitter than Hardy, if not as smooth as powerful, and would be a solid successor.
26. LAA--Kevin Newman, Ss-2b, Arizona. The hard-hitting Newman would immediately become LA's future 2b, and he could be that soon.
27. COL--Danny Everett, Rhp, HS, (TN). After taking Rogers, the young fireballer Everett will help shore up Rockies' poor pitching cache.
28. ATL--D.J. Stewart, Of, Florida State. The powerful Stewart would become the Braves' future Lf in an organization short on top Of's
29. TOR--Ian Happ, 2b-Of, Ohio. The versatile sweet-swinging Happ could move Travis to Cf or settle in nicely in Left. Either way, he would be a welcome bat.
30. NYY--Chris Betts, C, HS (Cal). Gary Sanchez has disappointed, so the powerful Betts would become McCann's heir apparent.

Note: Since I made my predictions, reports have the Diamondbacks selecting Georgia high school catcher Tyler Stephenson #1 at a bonus substantially below slot. Apparently they aren't impressed enough with the three blue-chip shortstops to pay slot to any of them, and they don't believe Stryker Trahan is their catcher of the future. If they do pick Stephenson, it will obviously throw my--and others'--predictions for a loop, but that's the nature of drafts.

Hmmm,

Here's my prediction.


there will be a MLB draft in 2015.


Some of these guys will be good

some will never make the majors.


That's my prediction.

Ninersphan wrote:Hmmm,

Here's my prediction.


there will be a MLB draft in 2015.


Some of these guys will be good

some will never make the majors.


That's my prediction.

Nailed it! Get this gentleman a job on the MLB network!!!

Well, that prediction was both illuminating and prescient, NIners. I wouldn't have expected any less from you...

I must say, though, considering the Mets' recent success in the draft with Cecchini, Conforto, and Matz, I would have thought you would keep up with the draft and possible future Mets. I guess I was wrong.

l.strether wrote:Well, that prediction was both illuminating and prescient, NIners. I wouldn't have expected any less from you...

I must say, though, considering the Mets' recent success in the draft with Cecchini, Conforto, and Matz, I would have thought you would keep up with the draft and possible future Mets. I guess I was wrong.

MLB draft is such a crap shoot. I look after the fact to see who they drafted and hope/route for them to do well, but as to caring before hand who they take???

Pointless waste of energy IMHO, at least speaking for myself. If others care, that's great, but the me it's like hockey, I don't pay it no mind.

Hey, no offense. I think the effort you put into your theme leagues is a pointless waste of energy, myself. But, to each his own. However, you did pay it enough mind to post on this thread. And since I'm sure you weren't just trolling, you must have some interest...

As to it being a crap shoot; it's not. Studies have clearly shown the first round of the MLB draft produces both a substantially higher amount of major leaguers and a substantially higher amount of future stars than the other rounds. So, it is relevant to both MLB and the prospects I believe your keepers leagues keep track of. So, again, I'm surprised you don't keep track.

l.strether wrote:Hey, no offense. I think the effort you put into your theme leagues is a pointless waste of energy, myself. But, to each his own. However, you did pay it enough mind to post on this thread. And since I'm sure you weren't just trolling, you must have some interest...

As to it being a crap shoot; it's not. Studies have clearly shown the first round of the MLB draft produces both a substantially higher amount of major leaguers and a substantially higher amount of future stars than the other rounds. So, it is relevant to both MLB and the prospects I believe your keepers leagues keep track of. So, again, I'm surprised you don't keep track.

Now you misread me.

I said I don't keep track until AFTER they are drafted. Prior to the draft it's pundits educated guesses just like every professional sports leagues pre draft rankings. The talking heads are guessing, educated, informed guessing, but guessing none the less. Once they are picked, signed and on their way to a MLB training facility or A ball then I'll be interested. Until then I've got enough players to worry about with the 800+ guy in the majors already.

As for caring about the thread, I was just having a little fun and making a sarcastic comment on the whole pre draft process. No offense intended. Needed a break from card error finding from one of the new sets Strat just put together but screwed up.

I will now let you get back to talking to someone who actually cares about the topic.

Apologies for derailing your well researched thread.

PS I only regularly play in two "theme" leagues and they require no more research than does a regular league. Just gotta know the current year's set a little bit. The theme part is in the creative way the teams are drafted.

That said I am/did pay in two other theme's this year, but again, no more research needed for them than playing a standard league. Hell one of them was a straight old fashioned autodraft.

So, in a sense you were trolling a thread of which you cared nothing. I understand you didn't mean any harm, Niners, but please don't post on my similar threads in the future unless you want to contribute something. I do know you can contribute.

And I'm surprised you're so dismissive of people who follow drafts like the MLB draft, NFL draft, and NBA draft. Considering you posit yourself a Niners fan, I would have thought you would have appreciated the "pundits educated guesses just like every professional sports leagues pre draft rankings. The talking heads are guessing, educated, informed guessing." And everything in baseball (and sports) involves guessing. It doesn't mean some guesses are better and better informed than others.

And here you misread me...

Ninersphan wrote:PS I only regularly play in two "theme" leagues and they require no more research than does a regular league. Just gotta know the current year's set a little bit. The theme part is in the creative way the teams are drafted. A

I didn't say anything about theme leagues; I mentioned your keepers leagues i've seen you run in the past. And having looked of some of your drafts, you guys clearly keep much more track of prospects and players, and put more work into your teams, than the average SOM player does with his team. You certainly do more so than I.


P.s. Thanks for the well-researched comment, but my only "research" was reading Baseball America every month. It wasn't exactly perusing Finnegan's Wake.

l.strether wrote:Hey, no offense. I think the effort you put into your theme leagues is a pointless waste of energy, myself. But, to each his own. However, you did pay it enough mind to post on this thread. And since I'm sure you weren't just trolling, you must have some interest...

As to it being a crap shoot; it's not. Studies have clearly shown the first round of the MLB draft produces both a substantially higher amount of major leaguers and a substantially higher amount of future stars than the other rounds. So, it is relevant to both MLB and the prospects I believe your keepers leagues keep track of. So, again, I'm surprised you don't keep track.

That says "theme" not keeper.

Maybe you meant keeper, but you typed theme.