Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

Last winter, the baseball intelligentsia was all abuzz about San Diego's brilliant, energetic new GM, AJ Preller, and his complete re-vamping of the team. Trawling his farm system and major league team, Preller secured for the Padres a whole new outfield of Justin Upton, Wil Myers, and Matt Kemp; a new starting catcher in Derek Norris; a young 3b in Will Middlebrooks; an ace closer in Craig Kimbrel; and a new ace James Shields, who was signed to a long-term contract.

The thinking was the Padres could stop angsting about Petco Park and win as an offense-oriented team and compete in the NL West. After 64 games, the jury is still out, and the cost they paid for that revamp is looking costlier and costlier. Kemp has been a complete disaster with 2 hrs and a woeful .689 OPS. Myers has been OK, but his offense and (definitely) his defense have been inferior to the Cf they traded away, Cameron Maybin. Middleborooks' .652 OPS is worse than Kemp's. When Kimbrel has had games to save, his ERA has been an unusually high 3.75. And while Upton has been solid, if not spectacular, he is most certainly going to leave SD after this year for a bigger, higher-paying market. And the Padres are an unremarkable 32-32 and 5 games out.

To make things worse, it is clear the talent they traded away is substantial talent they could have used this year and would have been able to use in their future:

1. Their current questionable keystone problems could have been solved this year and next by Jace Peterson (whom they traded to ATL) and Trea Turner (whom they traded to WSH). Peterson is currently playing a solid 2b for the Braves with a .285 BA and a .356 OBP. Turner has been tearing up AA with a .322/.385/.471 line and will probably be playing SS for the Nationals next year...instead of the Padres.

2. They traded away their four best pitching prospects--Matt Wisler, Max Fried, Joe Ross, and Zack Eflin, as well as solid young starter Jesse Hahn. Ross is already up and pitching well with the Nats. Wisler, until a recent shelling, had been pitching solidly in AAA (Braves) and has shown his #3-#2 starter potential. Eflin has pitched very well for the Phils' AA team. Lhp Fried is recovering from Tommy John surgery, but scouts believe he can throw 95+ as he once did. And Hahn has done a solid job for the A's with a 1.19 WHIP.

What makes this substantial subtraction of pitching talent even worse is the Padres' starting pitching has been pretty poor this year, particularly considering their park. Their supposed ace Cashner is 2-8 with a 4.16 ERA. Tyson Ross has a horrid 1.53 WHIP. Despaigne has been mediocre and Kennedy has been horrid. So, not only did Preller jettison possible pitching help for this year. He got rid of 4 viable replacements and/or improvements on their current substandard starters.

3. And just to make those losses worse, they also sent defensive whiz/Cf Cameron Maybin-- who is playing his usual stellar D in Cf and hitting .303 with a .375 OBP--to Atlanta, as well as 3b prospect Dustin Peterson who is hitting over .300 in A ball, and speedy Of Mallex Smith who is hitting .338 in AA.

So, the Padres are still in the race, and things can go better for them. However, at this point, savvy Padres fans with their eyes on the future, as well as the present, are probably a bit worried and wondering if Preller didn't give up too much of the future for only a decent shot this year. If I were a Padres fan, I would be both.

Fair points but it should be noted that the Padres are 5th in scoring this year in the major leagues--last year they were 30th. Their pitching slide is partly due to giving up hrs--they are second in the major leagues in HRs allowed. It seems inexplicable why just about all of their SPs should develop HR problems. Perhaps Derek Norris is partly responsible in not being a good signal caller? Or perhaps poorer defense resulting in an opposing team batting average going from .242 to .261 and a WHIP going from 1.22 to 1.33. Is poorer defense giving up more base runners and perhaps causing starting pitching to be too fine , resulting in having to come in with fat pitches which are knocked out of the park. Given the systemic effect on San Diego starting pitching with regard to giving up hrs, there is very likely some cause not unique to a particular starting pitcher. I am just speculating but it's odd why heretofore good pitchers like Cashner, Shields and Kennedy would all have extreme hr problems and Ross would have an extremely high WHIP (perhaps he won't give in and just walks people).

Firstly, thanks. Secondly, I was never claiming Preller hadn't improved the offense. My questions were whether they had improved it enough, and if almost trading away the farm was worth it. The Padres are actually 3rd now; however, considering they are 13th in OPS, it is unlikely that will continue. As to the pitchers, I never read of any complaints about Norris' game-calling while at Oakland; so I don't think that's the problem. That game-calling will likely improve if Hedges can take over full time, as well as hit better than he did in AA last year.

I think the problems lie mostly with the pitchers themselves. Cashner's command has never come near to approaching his stuff, and it's safe to say now that Hoyer swindled the Padres on his way out by getting Rizzo for him. I know some Padres fans constantly chant that Rizzo wouldn't hit 30 hrs in Petco, but he would have hit 15-25, with many doubles and his usual impressive batting line. Ross might have topped out last year and his troubles may be reflecting why Beane let him go. Kennedy is a mediocre pitcher, period, and Despaigne was not exactly highly pursued out of Cuba. So, they pretty much have a mediocre rotation that would have benefited from an influx of Joe Ross, Wisler, Fried, and/or Eflin.

Anyway, thanks for the input. If I wasn't a devoted Giants fan, I would wish the Padres luck.

freeman wrote:Fair points but it should be noted that the Padres are 5th in scoring this year in the major leagues--last year they were 30th. Their pitching slide is partly due to giving up hrs--they are second in the major leagues in HRs allowed. It seems inexplicable why just about all of their SPs should develop HR problems. Perhaps Derek Norris is partly responsible in not being a good signal caller? Or perhaps poorer defense resulting in an opposing team batting average going from .242 to .261 and a WHIP going from 1.22 to 1.33. Is poorer defense giving up more base runners and perhaps causing starting pitching to be too fine , resulting in having to come in with fat pitches which are knocked out of the park. Given the systemic effect on San Diego starting pitching with regard to giving up hrs, there is very likely some cause not unique to a particular starting pitcher. I am just speculating but it's odd why heretofore good pitchers like Cashner, Shields and Kennedy would all have extreme hr problems and Ross would have an extremely high WHIP (perhaps he won't give in and just walks people).

Did they tinker with the park at all, in addition to making all the off-season changes? It sounds like everyone is hitting better than last year.

blue turtle wrote:Did they tinker with the park at all, in addition to making all the off-season changes? It sounds like everyone is hitting better than last year.

They made minor modifications to the Left Field fence, but nothing drastic. And everybody is not hitting better this year. Kemp is hitting .249 with only 2 hrs. Middlebrooks has a woeful .227/.259/.389 bating line. Gyorko was hitting .210 and looking so bad at the plate that they sent him down. Amarista has a horrid .214/.287/.286 line. And Solarte has an unimpressive .251/.309/.351 line while hitting for almost no power.

So, while Preller did improve the offense--at a substantial cost--he didn't improve it dramatically, and maybe not enough.

Note: The Padres and Preller fired Bud Black and replaced him with Dave Roberts today. So, while Black wasn't Preller's hire and was probably, barring a playoff appearance, on his way out at the end of the year, Preller can't be happy with the Padres' performance so far. It will be interesting to see if Preller makes any more moves, but their best hitting prospect--Hunter Renfroe--is struggling in AA and is far from helping the Padres this year.