Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

Some consider a sound rebuilding year to be a surrender or a dismantling. Most savvy baseball fans know better. When faced with a future of perennial mediocrity, as well as a near-barren minor league system; it is best to rebuild and replenish then to wallow in inadequacy and inertia.

This was John Hart's thought when he inherited the Braves last year. Hart knew success depends on a well-stocked farm system and talented young players signed for many years. That wasn't happening with the team he inherited. While not entirely barren, the Braves' minor league system was far from stocked. They had thrown away recent 1st-round picks on players like Gilmartin and Lipka, and recent 1st-rounders Sims and Hursh have not impressed. Also, they were facing the exodus of their two key outfielders (and players): Heyward and Justin Upton. Hart smartly had no interest in signing Heyward to a long-term contract. An outstanding defender, Heyward had been a poor-middling hitter who was inconsistent at getting on base. Hart definitely considered the superior Upton worthy of such a contract, but knew he wouldn't be able to outbid higher market teams..

So, instead of letting the players get away for only two compensation picks, Hart used them as the center of a savvy rebuilding process brightening the Braves' future beyond this year. His moves were as follows:

1. He brilliantly swindled the Cardinals of 4 years of Shelby Miller and hard-throwing pitching prospect Tyrell Jenkins for one year of Heyward and Jordan Walden. When Hart made the trade, I immediately thought he had made a good move:

l.strether wrote:Well, they obviously went in the "What can the Braves get for Heyward?" direction, and I think they got a good get for the soon-to-be-free agent. Shelby Miller had a little bit of a decline last year. However, it was hardly a sophomore slump, and he's still a 24-year old hard (94+) throwing SP who has already proven he can win and succeed at the major league level. Considering Heyward's hit tool never solidified as hoped, getting Miller and the talented hard-throwing prospect Jenkins in return is a nice deal for Atlanta.

However, not even I thought Miller would be so outstanding.. Missing a No-hitter by one batter, he's anchored the Braves' rotation with a 1.99 ERA and 1.05 WHIP and shown he can be the Braves ace for many years, And Jenkins has successfully made the difficult jump to AA and is 4-4 with a 2.84 ERA there. Heyward, on the other hand, has struggled offensively with St. Louis, hitting only 6 hrs and driving in only 20 runs, with a dismal batting line of .263/.307/.402.

2. He flipped one year of Justin Upton for LHP Max Fried, 2B Jace Peterson, 3B Dustin Peterson, OF Mallex Smith and 2014-15 int. bonus slot 4, This trade has already paid off and should in the future. Peterson has provided a solid left-handed bat and solid defense at 2b. The speedy smith is hitting .338 in AA. Fried is recovering from TJ surgery but is a LHP who consistently hit 95, and the powerful D.Peterson is hitting over .300 in A ball.

3. He traded un-needed blue chip closer, Kimbrel, with OF M/ Upton (and part of his salary) to the Padres for OFs Maybin, Quentin and Paroubeck, RHP Matt Wisler and 2015 supp. 1st-round pick 3b/P Austin Riley. Maybin has played his usual sterling D, hitting .300 with pop and speed. Wisler held his own in AAA and and beautifully won his first ML game last night. And Grilli and Johnson have been just as effective as Kimbrel has been for SD.

4. He traded Gattis to Hou. for hard-throwing SP Foltenywicz, RP Andrew Thurman, and 3b Rio Ruiz. Gattis does have pop, but the superior defender Bethancourt had replaced him at C, and he was poor in Lf. The hard-throwing Foltenywicz struggled a bit, but he hit 97-98 regularly and showed promise. And if he can't nail down his command, he could be an excellent closer or setup man

5. He stole solid Lhp starting prospect Manny Banuelos from the Yanks for Rhps David Carpenter and Chasen Shreve. And while Carpenter fizzled out, Banuelos has dominated in AAA and could join the back of the Braves rotation very soon.

So, the Braves still have a way to go. However, Hart has done a splendid job of rejuvenating the Braves foundation. And with the money saved on Heyward and Upton, they will be able to make solid offers to free agents like Cespedes next year and others in the future.

Let me preface by saying I LOATHE the Braves, hate that whole tomahawk chop nonsense, have never used nor will never use a Chipper Jones Card in Strat, and wish nothing but continued and long standing medocrity or worse for this franchise to balance their annoyingly sustained success of the 90's and 2000's.

That said I have to admit, Hart has a done a good job putting this squad together and restocking the farm. The only points I will disagree with and even then only slightly, is Gilmartin, given his success this year for the Mets, last nights game not withstanding. I will agree he was perhaps drafted to high and perhaps miscast as a starter by the Braves but given his success so far, I think it's unfair to categorize him as a waste of a pick.
The other point I'll disagree with is the trade with Houston. Gattis is raking and Betancourt's offense and Defense have gotten so bad they optioned him back to the minors. He had always shown to be a superior defensive catcher up to this point so maybe it's just a hiccup, but right now don't think we can fully say that was a win for Hart. Folty, as well looks like he needs more seasoning can throw through a wall, but doesn't really have great command. Watched him throw to many fastballs right down the middle against the Mets just last week in a start that also got him demoted. Again maybe he needs more seasoning, and you did say perhaps he's better suited for the pen, but offensive catchers are hard to come by so I think it's to early to say Hart got the better of this one and the is grade more to be determined/incomplete.

Firstly, I appreciate--and obviously agree with--your agreement with my estimations about most of Hart's moves. As to Gilmartin, he has done a solid job for the Mets and hasn't been a bust. I think the Braves just over-drafted the soft-tosser--over superior talents like Henry Owens and Trevor Story--and then got unfairly frustrated when he wasn't missing numerous bats. I'm sure they wish now they hadn't traded him for Doumit, as I'm sure the Twins wish they hadn't left him unprotected last Winter.

As to Gattis, I would hardly say he's been raking. He has a very unimpressive .228/.260/.436 line with a solid-but-unspectacular 12 hrs. Also, Houston realized what Hart already knew: he is a poor defender at C and Lf, and they have been primarily dh-ing him. And Folty's command does need work, just as Bauer's and other hard-throwers have needed recently. However, his stuff is so good, it is highly unlikely he wouldn't have bullpen success without full command. So, while you're right we can't evaluate the trade yet, I would still be happy to have the present Folty and his potential than a poor defensive C/Of who doesn't particularly hit well or get on base.

And Bethancourt did look over his head this year, and I think he took his at-bats to the field with him. If they could get him to be ok with .250/.325/.400 production, not take his at-bats to the field, and remember his value is defense, he should be OK. Since the Braves don't have a strong shot this year, they would be best to let him recover his confidence in AAA and let Pierzynski catch the rest of the way.

Note: The Braves added another talented young arm to their growing stable of talented young pitchers yesterday. They acquired SP Touki Touissant in exchange for yeoman 2b Phil Gosselin and taking on SP Bronson Arroyon and his salary. Touissant was the 16th pick in last year's first round, throws in the mid 90's with a solid change-up, and was 2-2 with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in Lo A ball. So, it looks like another solid brick in Hart's keen rebuilding.

l.strether wrote:Note: The Braves added another talented young arm to their growing stable of talented young pitchers yesterday. They acquired SP Touki Touissant in exchange for yeoman 2b Phil Gosselin and taking on SP Bronson Arroyon and his salary. Touissant was the 16th pick in last year's first round, throws in the mid 90's with a solid change-up, and was 2-2 with a 3.69 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in Lo A ball. So, it looks like another solid brick in Hart's keen rebuilding.

Saw that total fleece job by Hart.

Note: After producing a robust .340/.414/.413 line with 23 Sbs in AA, Of Mallex Smith has been promoted to AAA Gwinnett, with speculation he will become the Braves' starting leftfielder/leadoff man by the end of this year or the beginning of next. Having stolen 88 bases his first professional year, there was no doubt about Smith's speed, but there was a little skepticism about his ability to get on base...skepticism he has definitely put aside.

Smith,as noted above, was acquired by the Braves in the Kimbrel trade, and would have been a nice replacement for Upton or Kemp next year. So his success re-emphasizes both Hart's ingenious rebuilding and Preller's questionable emptying of his farm system. When one sees how many players were involved in both, it becomes even clearer:

Players Preller traded away.. (players to Braves in bold):
C-Yasmani Grandal
SS-Trea Turner
SP-Burch Smith
C-Rene Rivera
1b- Jake Bauers
SP-Jesse Hahn
SP-Zack Eflin
SP-Joe Wieland
SP-Joe Ross
2b-Jace Peterson
SP-Max Fried
3b-Dustin Peterson
Of-Mallex Smith
2014-15 International bonus slot 4
SP-Matt Wisler
CF-Cameron Maybin
Of-Jordan Paroubeck
3B/SP-Austin Riley (from traded Supplemental first round pick)

Players Hart acquired...(players from Padres in bold)
2b-Jace Peterson
SP-Max Fried
3b-Dustin Peterson
Of-Mallex Smith
2014-15 International bonus slot 4
SP-Matt Wisler
CF-Cameron Maybin
Of-Jordan Paroubeck
3B/SP-Austin Riley (from traded Supplemental first round pick)
SP-Shelby Miller
SP-Tyrell Jenkins
SP-Mike Foltenywicz
SP-Manny Banuelos
3B-Rio Ruiz
RP-Andrew Thurman
Of-Nick Markakis
RP-Jim Johnson
RP-Jason Grilli

So Hart's fortune and Preller's misfortune, as well as Hart's ingenuity and Preller's myopia, are strongly intertwined. And Mallex Smith's success is just further reason for savvy Braves' fans to be beaming and savvy Padres' fan's to be questioning their precocious GM's grand plan.

The San Diego to Atlanta talent pipeline makes be wonder if Mr. Hart is holding some incrimination Polaroids of Mr Preller with farm animals in compromising positions.

I wouldn't be surprised if he has something on the newbie...

Note: The Braves are reportedly bringing up SP Manny Banuelos from AAA Gwinett for Thursday's start against the Nationals. As i noted earlier, the Braves stole Banuelos from the Yankees for David Carpenter and Chase Shreven because the Yankees had tired of Banuelos' immaturity and needed solid middle relief. Banuelos has flourished this year, particularly his last 11 games where he has a 1.53 ERA and has pitched between the low and mid 90's

So, the Braves rotation's future looks even brighter. They already have a solid front three of Shelby Miller, Alex Wood, and Julio Teheran. The talented Matt Wisler looks like a future fixture, and Banuelos and the hard-throwers Foltynewicz and Tyrell Jenkins can compete for the last spot, with the other two moving to the bullpen.

Needless to say, the future of Braves pitching didn't look nearly as bright before Hart's arrival.