How and Why Billy Beane Blew It
Posted: Fri Jun 26, 2015 11:01 amThis time last year, A's GM Billy Beane was watching his team dominate the AL, firmly ensconced in 1st in the AL West. How soon Fortune shifts her gaze, even from golden-boy geniuses like Beane. The A's are currently languishing in 4th place, 9 games out of first...despite a recent 5-game winning streak. So what went wrong and why? And has Beane's previous teflon sheen lost its luster or just suffered minor tarnish? I would argue the latter, as the A's decline is a result of three character traits/partial flaws within Beane's genius, as opposed to the dusk of his genius itself. Those traits/flaws--and the poor decisions they spurred--are as follows:
1. Beane's fierce drive to win was exacerbated by previous playoff exits, making him impatient. So, while the baseball world saw a team heading to November, Beane looked at the back-end of his rotation--Chavez, Milone, Straily--and saw one primed for another early exit. While he wasn't wrong, his answer to remedying his problem was. Desperate for help, and well-met by his protege Epstein, Beane actually surrendered his blue-chip SS prospect (and BA top-ten prospect) Addison Russell and sweet-swinging Of prospect (2013 1st-rd pick) Billy McKinney for 1 1/2 years of SP Jeff Samardzija and 1/2 a year of SP Jason Hammel.
It didn't work out. Samardzija was solid--5-6, 3.19 ERA, 0.93 whip--but not spectacular, and not the dominating ace for whom Beane was hoping. And facing losing the Shark in 2016, Beane sent him to CHW for SS Marcus Semien (who has been awful defensively) backup C Josh Phegley and 2 mid-range prospects. Russell, on the other hand, has been one of the top rookies in the NL, playing excellent defense at 2b and showing pop that should produce 15-25 hrs yearly. And McKinney has produced a .302/.352/.473 line and joins Kyle Schwarber in the Cubs future LF picture. So, Beane's angst over ensuring a 2014 WS victory brought only a rapid playoff exit and their all-star caliber SS for the next 6+ years.
2. Beane loves to tinker and is one of the only people who can outsmart himself...and he did. The A's limited budget has forced Beane to constantly revamp his major league team, (usually successfully) dealing players nearing their contract's end for younger players with more controllable years left. He has never complained. An avowed perfectionist, he has seemed to enjoy rebooting his teams as much as watching the rebooted ones succeed. This became apparent shortly after the Samrdzija trade. Still wanting a true ace, and frustrated by star player Yoenis Cespedes' inability to get on base and avoid mental errors, he traded 1 1/2 years of the Of for 1/2 a year of Jon Lester and Of Jonny Gomes. He also, that day, traded recently demoted SP Tommy Milone to MIN for Of Sam Fuld. Beane felt Fuld, Gomes, and a dash of Vogt could easily meet Cespedes' production.
It backfired. Lester did his job, going 6-4, with a 2..35 ERA and a 1.07 whip. However, the A's plan to replace Cespedes with Gomes and Fuld didn't work. Gomes hit .234 with no extra base hits, and Fuld hit .209 with a woeful .275 OBP,. Even worse, that A's lineup missed Cespedes' powerful presence, as batters no longer saw pitches they once did because of it. To add to that, many A's players resented both Milone's demotion and the messing with the team's makeup so late after so much success. So, in attempting to perfect his already strong team, Beane messed with his team's chemistry, damaged the lineup, and cost it it's most dangerous offensive player for the stretch run and the following year. Beane has rarely outsmarted himself; he did so here.
3. Beane is a self-avowed control freak who doesn't brook dissent. Anyone who saw Moneyball knows Beane runs the show with a ubiquitous iron fist, and those who question it--like Art Howe--aren't long for the organization. Unfortunately for the A's, that iron fist extends even to star players who question and/or clash with their boss. Josh Donaldson was such a star player. Apparently, an exhausted and bruised Donaldson had asked Melvin for a day off to recoup. Melvin assented, but when Beane heard of this he demanded Donaldson be in the lineup or be put on the disabled list or play...and Donaldson was fumed. Apparently, the rift between the two never mended, and various baseball people were sure Beane would trade his best player, and he did.
He sent Donaldson for 3b Brett Lawrie, SP Kendall Gravesman, soft-tossing lefty Sean Nolin, and top SS prospect--but not as top as Russell--Franklin Barreto. Donaldson has proceeded to put up MVP numbers for, and become the leader of, the Blue Jays. Lawrie has been OK, but has put up significantly less impressive numbers, Gravesman has been so-so, and Barreto--whose prime asset is his bat--has produced an unremarkable .271/.310/.432 line. And an unfortunate ancillary result of the trade was Beane, after acquiring Barreto, felt he could deal superior SS prospect Daniel Robertson to TB for Zobrist and Yunel Escobar, whom he flipped for Tyler Clippard. Clippard has been fine, but Zobrist has been terrible, hitting .250 with only 4 hrs. Robertson, meanwhile, has held his own in AA and looks like the Rays' SS of the future...not the As'.
So, will Beane extricate himself from his current nadir?...of course. He is far too smart, resourceful, hungry and (relatively) young for this to be his last ignominious hurrah. And he still has a foundation with which to work. Barreto is still a solid SS prospect, 1b prospect Matt Olson is a legitimate future power threat, despite struggling in AAA. Toolsy 1st round pick Richie Martin looks promising. And Vogt, Reddick, and particularly ace Sonny Gray should be contributing for awhile. Once Beane adds a few more pieces for Zobrist and makes some smart free-agent signings (like Kazmir), the Golden Boy will be shining again...hopefully without making the mistakes he made above.
1. Beane's fierce drive to win was exacerbated by previous playoff exits, making him impatient. So, while the baseball world saw a team heading to November, Beane looked at the back-end of his rotation--Chavez, Milone, Straily--and saw one primed for another early exit. While he wasn't wrong, his answer to remedying his problem was. Desperate for help, and well-met by his protege Epstein, Beane actually surrendered his blue-chip SS prospect (and BA top-ten prospect) Addison Russell and sweet-swinging Of prospect (2013 1st-rd pick) Billy McKinney for 1 1/2 years of SP Jeff Samardzija and 1/2 a year of SP Jason Hammel.
It didn't work out. Samardzija was solid--5-6, 3.19 ERA, 0.93 whip--but not spectacular, and not the dominating ace for whom Beane was hoping. And facing losing the Shark in 2016, Beane sent him to CHW for SS Marcus Semien (who has been awful defensively) backup C Josh Phegley and 2 mid-range prospects. Russell, on the other hand, has been one of the top rookies in the NL, playing excellent defense at 2b and showing pop that should produce 15-25 hrs yearly. And McKinney has produced a .302/.352/.473 line and joins Kyle Schwarber in the Cubs future LF picture. So, Beane's angst over ensuring a 2014 WS victory brought only a rapid playoff exit and their all-star caliber SS for the next 6+ years.
2. Beane loves to tinker and is one of the only people who can outsmart himself...and he did. The A's limited budget has forced Beane to constantly revamp his major league team, (usually successfully) dealing players nearing their contract's end for younger players with more controllable years left. He has never complained. An avowed perfectionist, he has seemed to enjoy rebooting his teams as much as watching the rebooted ones succeed. This became apparent shortly after the Samrdzija trade. Still wanting a true ace, and frustrated by star player Yoenis Cespedes' inability to get on base and avoid mental errors, he traded 1 1/2 years of the Of for 1/2 a year of Jon Lester and Of Jonny Gomes. He also, that day, traded recently demoted SP Tommy Milone to MIN for Of Sam Fuld. Beane felt Fuld, Gomes, and a dash of Vogt could easily meet Cespedes' production.
It backfired. Lester did his job, going 6-4, with a 2..35 ERA and a 1.07 whip. However, the A's plan to replace Cespedes with Gomes and Fuld didn't work. Gomes hit .234 with no extra base hits, and Fuld hit .209 with a woeful .275 OBP,. Even worse, that A's lineup missed Cespedes' powerful presence, as batters no longer saw pitches they once did because of it. To add to that, many A's players resented both Milone's demotion and the messing with the team's makeup so late after so much success. So, in attempting to perfect his already strong team, Beane messed with his team's chemistry, damaged the lineup, and cost it it's most dangerous offensive player for the stretch run and the following year. Beane has rarely outsmarted himself; he did so here.
3. Beane is a self-avowed control freak who doesn't brook dissent. Anyone who saw Moneyball knows Beane runs the show with a ubiquitous iron fist, and those who question it--like Art Howe--aren't long for the organization. Unfortunately for the A's, that iron fist extends even to star players who question and/or clash with their boss. Josh Donaldson was such a star player. Apparently, an exhausted and bruised Donaldson had asked Melvin for a day off to recoup. Melvin assented, but when Beane heard of this he demanded Donaldson be in the lineup or be put on the disabled list or play...and Donaldson was fumed. Apparently, the rift between the two never mended, and various baseball people were sure Beane would trade his best player, and he did.
He sent Donaldson for 3b Brett Lawrie, SP Kendall Gravesman, soft-tossing lefty Sean Nolin, and top SS prospect--but not as top as Russell--Franklin Barreto. Donaldson has proceeded to put up MVP numbers for, and become the leader of, the Blue Jays. Lawrie has been OK, but has put up significantly less impressive numbers, Gravesman has been so-so, and Barreto--whose prime asset is his bat--has produced an unremarkable .271/.310/.432 line. And an unfortunate ancillary result of the trade was Beane, after acquiring Barreto, felt he could deal superior SS prospect Daniel Robertson to TB for Zobrist and Yunel Escobar, whom he flipped for Tyler Clippard. Clippard has been fine, but Zobrist has been terrible, hitting .250 with only 4 hrs. Robertson, meanwhile, has held his own in AA and looks like the Rays' SS of the future...not the As'.
So, will Beane extricate himself from his current nadir?...of course. He is far too smart, resourceful, hungry and (relatively) young for this to be his last ignominious hurrah. And he still has a foundation with which to work. Barreto is still a solid SS prospect, 1b prospect Matt Olson is a legitimate future power threat, despite struggling in AAA. Toolsy 1st round pick Richie Martin looks promising. And Vogt, Reddick, and particularly ace Sonny Gray should be contributing for awhile. Once Beane adds a few more pieces for Zobrist and makes some smart free-agent signings (like Kazmir), the Golden Boy will be shining again...hopefully without making the mistakes he made above.
