And here's a perfect example of Nasty's misplaced cartoon arrogance:
I made these two sound analyses of the Jason Heyward-Shelby Miller trade, which have turned out to be correct, with Miller pitching like an ace and making the All-Star team:
l.strether wrote:Yes, the Cards give up 4 years of Shelby Miller, who won 15 gms a year ago, and a solid hard-throwing pitching prospect for 1 year of Heyward (& his average hit tool) and Walden. Thats
quite a swindle for the Cards...
l.strether wrote:Anyway, as I said in my first post, getting 4 years of the talented SP Shelby Miller (and Jenkins) for 1 year of Heyward, and Walden, is still a great deal...regardless of what Hart does next. Considering Atlanta's clear starting pitching needs, I'm surprised you're not happy with it yourself.
Teamnasty first responded with the arrogant dismissal of my daring to value wins in a starting pitcher, then proceeded to tell me exactly why I was "wrong"...even though his trade analysis--actually claiming the Cards swindled the Braves--was clearly wrong. He even arrogantly dismissed my correct analysis by referring to my argument in scare quotes.
teamnasty wrote:I'm pretty surprised that anybody on a baseball simulation site in 2014 would actually employ pitcher wins and batting average in an argument over who won a trade, let alone do so in selective fashion to advance their "argument".
On the Braves side they get Shelby Miller who yes won 15 regular season games two seasons ago. And I'll concede further that he had a fine season that year even though pitcher wins is a weak-ass predictive stat when thinking about the future. But his arm was so scragged by the end of that season in 2013 that the Cardinals completely shut him down for the entire postseason, letting him only throw one inning where he got tagged. His velocity plummeted, his mechanics showed it, he had more than fatigue something was dearly wrong. And that showed itself last season where his k/rate (a stat that matters going forward when making predictions unlike pitcher wins) plummeted by 2.5 k's per 9 innings, a massive drop considering that he should be entering his prime. His walk rate spiked by about .6 per 9 too. His velocity was off. The only thing that remotely saved his season was an insanely lucky .256 ba against on balls in play, which is utterly unsustainable. See Voros McKracken's research, etc. Even so he was just 10-9 with an ERA lucky enough to be a middling high 3's. The 15-game winner is gone.
The only plausible thing to say on the Braves side is that they get 4 years of cost control on Miller and a similar amount on the young kid who has yet to make it out of the low minors. But Miller is , at best, a #3 going forward. At best, probably worse than that. Last year , based on the things that a pitcher actually controls that affect the outcome of the game, he was essentially a replacement level starter.
So, not only was his poor analysis of this trade--and particularly of Shelby Miller--way off, he showed the arrogant dismissal of my correct position he erroneously accused me of. Nobody in this Forum has a place to criticize another poster for claiming they're right or telling someone else they're wrong...we all do it. But when someone like Nasty, who rudely dismisses others' arguments, does so, it truly is humorous...