Top 2015 MLB Breakout Players
Posted: Sun Jul 12, 2015 10:53 amAs I recounted in a previous post/thread, this has been an amazing year for MLB rookies, as over 25 have solidly contributed, and some--like Correa, Bryant, Pederson, Lindor, Syndergaard, and (perhaps) Buxton--look like possible major stars. However, this has also been a great year for breakout players: those mediocre or journeyman players who become solid or great major leaguers, or the good players who rise to become great ones. Some of last years breakouts were J.D. Martinez, Zack Britton, Andrew Miller, Josh Harrison, and Marcell Ozuna. Here are this years:
1. Bryce Harper, Rf, Nationals. In 2012, 19 year old #1 pick and ex SI poster-boy Harper arrived with great fanfare and to great scorn. For daring to be young, talented, and unapologetic about it, he endured the wrath of insecure male fans and immature players like Cole Hamels, using his god-like power and athletic ability to become rookie of the year. But, in the next two years, youthful recklessness and some immaturity helped damage his body and stunt his batting growth. This has all changed this year, as the now 22-yr old Harper has refined his hitting approach and scaled back his 5th gear play to become the best player in the NL, a 5-tool monster who could viably lead the Nats to their first WS. With 26 hrs already, and a staggering 1.173 OPS, Harper, MLB's top breakout star, looks likely to do it.
2. Shelby Miller Sp, ATL. When the Braves traded one year of Of Jason Heyward and RP Jordan Walden to STL for SP Shelby Miller and hard-throwing Sp prospect Tyrell Jenkins, some thought the Cards had swindled ATL. Even though Miller had been one of the best rookie pitchers in 2013, and had had a solid 2014 campaign with a sub-3 ERA in September, they thought the pitcher Miller had been was gone. Well, in some sense, their inaccurate evaluation was "right," since Miller has become an even better starter with the Braves. Consistently hitting 96 mph with his fastball, Miller has danced with a no-hitter, and become the Braves ace--for at least 3 more--years with an impressive 2.38 ERA, 1.15 Whip, 7.52 K/IP, and only 6 hrs allowed.
3. Dee Gordon 2b, Marlins. Gordon had a solid year last year, after moving to 2b for the Dodgers, hitting .289 and stealing 64 bases. However, his mediocre .326 OBP partially prompted new GM Friedman to trade him to the Marlins for Sp prospect Andrew Heaney. Well, Gordon had put his getting-on-base problems away, as he has produced a .359 OBP, batted .338, stolen 29 based, and has been an outstanding lead-off man for the Marlins and earned a well-deserved starting spot in this year's all-star game. With his brother Nick Gordon the rising future SS for the Twins, Tom Gordon should be proud of his talented progeny.
4. Manny Machado, 3b, Orioles. Like standout rookie Carlos Correa, Machado was a big, smooth-fielding HS shortstop eliciting comparisons to Alex Rodriguez. Taken 3rd overall in 2010, Machado quickly rose through the system, eventually arriving in BLT in 2013, sliding over to 3b to accommodate the even smoother-fielding J.J. Hardy. Machado immediately impressed with his GG-caliber defense and presence, if poor pitch selection at the plate. However, his development was stifled a bit over the next two years by injuries and his own immaturity, including a notorious incident with the As' Josh Donaldson. That's changed this year, as Machado has matured with his still remarkable defense, better pitch selection (.354) ObP, and a greater confidence in driving the ball. So, he has finally arrived as the star everyone thought he could be. The only question remaining is whether he will stay at third or become the Orioles' next great giant SS.
5. Carlos Martinez, Sp, Cardinals. Few scouts have doubted Martinez' ability to succeed--and flourish--in the majors. One of the top prospects in baseball for most of his minor-league career, with a fastball regularly sitting at 94-95 mph and often touching 98 and a solid curveball, Martinez had all the makings of a #2-#1 starter. However, a crowded rotation resigned Martinez to the bullpen, where he put up mediocre numbers in a role he didn't cherish. However, winning a spot in the rotation this spring, Martinez has gone on to become the Cards' ace, winning 10 games while posting a 2.52 ERA and a staggering 9.48 K/9IP. He still needs to cut down his walks if he is to be a true #1 starter, but the Cards are content with him as their ace leading them to their playoffs.
6. Trevor Rosenthal, Closer, Cardinals. Rosenthal has never had a problem intimidating hitters, consistently throwing in the mid-high 90's since he was drafted. However, after two mildly successful years as a set-up man, Rosenthal struggled last year. as the designated closer. His ERA rose to 3.20, and his Whips and BBs/9IP respectively rose to staggering numbers of 1.41 and 5.37. So, he made some adjustments this year, like completely abandoning his wind-up and bearing down harder on the innings' first batters. The results have been remarkable. He has saved 24 out of 25 games, has reduced his walk rate to 3.05, and has produced a staggering 0.86 ERA and 1.09 ERA to become an all-star and the best closer in the league.
7. Stephen Vogt, C, Athletics. A 12th-round Tampa Bay pick out of little-known Azusa Pacific, Vogt spent the early parts of his career bouncing from C to Of to1b because the Rays always had others they rated higher at those positions. Although it taught him versatility, Vogt felt he was doomed in an organization that didn't value him. Luckily, the A's and Billy Beane did. Purchasing him from the Rays, the A's first used him as a back-up C in 2013, then as a valuable backup C-Of in 2014. This year, however, after the trade of Derek Norris, Vogt has flourished as the A's starting C, with 13 hrs and a very impressive .286/.372/.489 line, while playing solid defense A first year all-star, Vogt's days in the Of should continue to decline.
8. Jimmy Paredes, Dh-Of, Orioles. Last year, another journeyman ex-Astros prospect J.D. Martinez found a home, broke out as a substantial major leaguer, and has gone on to become one of the best offensive players in the league. And while Paredes' breakout hasn't been as dramatic, it has still been impressive. Signed out of the Dominican by the Yankees 8 years ago, he was soon traded to the Astros in the Berkman deal, and proceeded to unimpress in 3 shots with the big club. In one year, he flew from the Marlins to the Orioles to the Royals on waiver claims until he was finally sold to the Orioles last Winter. He has flourished. Although injuries have cost him his early speed and ability to play the infield, he has produced at both Dh and the Of, hitting 9 hrs, with an impressive line of 300/.333/.479. He is unlikely to make the second break-out Martinez has, but he has established himself as a substantial major league hitter many teams would covet.
9. Xander Bogaerts, Ss, Red Sox. A legitimate 4-tool talent (speed aside) who has been a scouts darling for years, it is hardly surprising Bogaerts has broken though this year. The differences between the Bogaerts of last year and this year, however, are still remarkable. Last year, Bogaerts often looked lost at the plate, had trouble getting on base, and struck out once every four at-bats. This year, he's dramatically improved his pitch selection and cut down his strikeouts, as he has added 61 points to his BA and 41 points to his OBP. Defensively, he has also improved, as his footwork and reactions have substantially caught up with his formidable arm and athleticism. That has led to a more productive defensive range as shown by improved UzR, ErrR and Ooz ratings. A possible All-star this year, questions about moving Bogaerts from Short and replacing him with the anemic-but-smooth Deven Marrero should be put to rest.
10. Hector Santiago, SP, Angels. Before tiring of the Mike Scioscia-Arte Moreno show and quitting, GM Jerry DiPoto made one of his best deals in 2013 when he acquired young SPs Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago for the decidedly one-dimensional Mark Trumbo. Skaggs showed immediate promise but injuries have led him to miss this season. The hard-throwing Santiago, however, pitched alright, flashing his typically impressive fastball, while struggling with his notoriously poor command an control. This year, however, he has put those difficulties aside and has become the Angels best starter, with a 2.33 (1.42 lower) ERA and a 1.10 Whip (.26 lower). So, while the Angels are still in major disarray, no talented GM candidate will want to work with the imperious Scioscia, they can look forward to a strong future rotation of Santiago, Richards, Skaggs, Heaney, and Shoemaker or the hard-throwing lh prospect Sean Newcomb.
1. Bryce Harper, Rf, Nationals. In 2012, 19 year old #1 pick and ex SI poster-boy Harper arrived with great fanfare and to great scorn. For daring to be young, talented, and unapologetic about it, he endured the wrath of insecure male fans and immature players like Cole Hamels, using his god-like power and athletic ability to become rookie of the year. But, in the next two years, youthful recklessness and some immaturity helped damage his body and stunt his batting growth. This has all changed this year, as the now 22-yr old Harper has refined his hitting approach and scaled back his 5th gear play to become the best player in the NL, a 5-tool monster who could viably lead the Nats to their first WS. With 26 hrs already, and a staggering 1.173 OPS, Harper, MLB's top breakout star, looks likely to do it.
2. Shelby Miller Sp, ATL. When the Braves traded one year of Of Jason Heyward and RP Jordan Walden to STL for SP Shelby Miller and hard-throwing Sp prospect Tyrell Jenkins, some thought the Cards had swindled ATL. Even though Miller had been one of the best rookie pitchers in 2013, and had had a solid 2014 campaign with a sub-3 ERA in September, they thought the pitcher Miller had been was gone. Well, in some sense, their inaccurate evaluation was "right," since Miller has become an even better starter with the Braves. Consistently hitting 96 mph with his fastball, Miller has danced with a no-hitter, and become the Braves ace--for at least 3 more--years with an impressive 2.38 ERA, 1.15 Whip, 7.52 K/IP, and only 6 hrs allowed.
3. Dee Gordon 2b, Marlins. Gordon had a solid year last year, after moving to 2b for the Dodgers, hitting .289 and stealing 64 bases. However, his mediocre .326 OBP partially prompted new GM Friedman to trade him to the Marlins for Sp prospect Andrew Heaney. Well, Gordon had put his getting-on-base problems away, as he has produced a .359 OBP, batted .338, stolen 29 based, and has been an outstanding lead-off man for the Marlins and earned a well-deserved starting spot in this year's all-star game. With his brother Nick Gordon the rising future SS for the Twins, Tom Gordon should be proud of his talented progeny.
4. Manny Machado, 3b, Orioles. Like standout rookie Carlos Correa, Machado was a big, smooth-fielding HS shortstop eliciting comparisons to Alex Rodriguez. Taken 3rd overall in 2010, Machado quickly rose through the system, eventually arriving in BLT in 2013, sliding over to 3b to accommodate the even smoother-fielding J.J. Hardy. Machado immediately impressed with his GG-caliber defense and presence, if poor pitch selection at the plate. However, his development was stifled a bit over the next two years by injuries and his own immaturity, including a notorious incident with the As' Josh Donaldson. That's changed this year, as Machado has matured with his still remarkable defense, better pitch selection (.354) ObP, and a greater confidence in driving the ball. So, he has finally arrived as the star everyone thought he could be. The only question remaining is whether he will stay at third or become the Orioles' next great giant SS.
5. Carlos Martinez, Sp, Cardinals. Few scouts have doubted Martinez' ability to succeed--and flourish--in the majors. One of the top prospects in baseball for most of his minor-league career, with a fastball regularly sitting at 94-95 mph and often touching 98 and a solid curveball, Martinez had all the makings of a #2-#1 starter. However, a crowded rotation resigned Martinez to the bullpen, where he put up mediocre numbers in a role he didn't cherish. However, winning a spot in the rotation this spring, Martinez has gone on to become the Cards' ace, winning 10 games while posting a 2.52 ERA and a staggering 9.48 K/9IP. He still needs to cut down his walks if he is to be a true #1 starter, but the Cards are content with him as their ace leading them to their playoffs.
6. Trevor Rosenthal, Closer, Cardinals. Rosenthal has never had a problem intimidating hitters, consistently throwing in the mid-high 90's since he was drafted. However, after two mildly successful years as a set-up man, Rosenthal struggled last year. as the designated closer. His ERA rose to 3.20, and his Whips and BBs/9IP respectively rose to staggering numbers of 1.41 and 5.37. So, he made some adjustments this year, like completely abandoning his wind-up and bearing down harder on the innings' first batters. The results have been remarkable. He has saved 24 out of 25 games, has reduced his walk rate to 3.05, and has produced a staggering 0.86 ERA and 1.09 ERA to become an all-star and the best closer in the league.
7. Stephen Vogt, C, Athletics. A 12th-round Tampa Bay pick out of little-known Azusa Pacific, Vogt spent the early parts of his career bouncing from C to Of to1b because the Rays always had others they rated higher at those positions. Although it taught him versatility, Vogt felt he was doomed in an organization that didn't value him. Luckily, the A's and Billy Beane did. Purchasing him from the Rays, the A's first used him as a back-up C in 2013, then as a valuable backup C-Of in 2014. This year, however, after the trade of Derek Norris, Vogt has flourished as the A's starting C, with 13 hrs and a very impressive .286/.372/.489 line, while playing solid defense A first year all-star, Vogt's days in the Of should continue to decline.
8. Jimmy Paredes, Dh-Of, Orioles. Last year, another journeyman ex-Astros prospect J.D. Martinez found a home, broke out as a substantial major leaguer, and has gone on to become one of the best offensive players in the league. And while Paredes' breakout hasn't been as dramatic, it has still been impressive. Signed out of the Dominican by the Yankees 8 years ago, he was soon traded to the Astros in the Berkman deal, and proceeded to unimpress in 3 shots with the big club. In one year, he flew from the Marlins to the Orioles to the Royals on waiver claims until he was finally sold to the Orioles last Winter. He has flourished. Although injuries have cost him his early speed and ability to play the infield, he has produced at both Dh and the Of, hitting 9 hrs, with an impressive line of 300/.333/.479. He is unlikely to make the second break-out Martinez has, but he has established himself as a substantial major league hitter many teams would covet.
9. Xander Bogaerts, Ss, Red Sox. A legitimate 4-tool talent (speed aside) who has been a scouts darling for years, it is hardly surprising Bogaerts has broken though this year. The differences between the Bogaerts of last year and this year, however, are still remarkable. Last year, Bogaerts often looked lost at the plate, had trouble getting on base, and struck out once every four at-bats. This year, he's dramatically improved his pitch selection and cut down his strikeouts, as he has added 61 points to his BA and 41 points to his OBP. Defensively, he has also improved, as his footwork and reactions have substantially caught up with his formidable arm and athleticism. That has led to a more productive defensive range as shown by improved UzR, ErrR and Ooz ratings. A possible All-star this year, questions about moving Bogaerts from Short and replacing him with the anemic-but-smooth Deven Marrero should be put to rest.
10. Hector Santiago, SP, Angels. Before tiring of the Mike Scioscia-Arte Moreno show and quitting, GM Jerry DiPoto made one of his best deals in 2013 when he acquired young SPs Tyler Skaggs and Hector Santiago for the decidedly one-dimensional Mark Trumbo. Skaggs showed immediate promise but injuries have led him to miss this season. The hard-throwing Santiago, however, pitched alright, flashing his typically impressive fastball, while struggling with his notoriously poor command an control. This year, however, he has put those difficulties aside and has become the Angels best starter, with a 2.33 (1.42 lower) ERA and a 1.10 Whip (.26 lower). So, while the Angels are still in major disarray, no talented GM candidate will want to work with the imperious Scioscia, they can look forward to a strong future rotation of Santiago, Richards, Skaggs, Heaney, and Shoemaker or the hard-throwing lh prospect Sean Newcomb.