How the Red Sox Can Recover
Posted: Mon Jul 20, 2015 10:35 amWhat happened to the Red Sox? Just two years ago, they had fully recovered from the clubhouse meltdown under Francona in 2011 and Bobby Valentine's farcically awful 2012 season to win a World Series under the precocious stratagems of GM Ben Cherington and steady, savvy hand of John Farrell.
Two years later, the BoSox are 7 games under .500 and languishing in last place. Cherington's three expensive major signings: 3b Pablo Sandoval, Lf Hanley Ramirez, and Cf Rusney Castillo--have been relative disasters. Like always, Sandoval has played the season overweight, produced a woeful .267/.309/.387 line, and gained notoriety for instagramming a female fan from the can during a game. Ramirez has been as god-awful defensively as he has been outstanding offensively. He's turned left-field play into a regular horror show for Red Sox pitchers, leaving them with grimaces at every ball hit his way. He has also alienated his teammates with his same laissez-faire attitude that alienated his past Dodger and Marlin teammates. And the supposed 5-tool Castillo has looked like a no-tool fraud whose non-production has led to a recent demotion.
And Cherington's recent pitching acquisitions have been disappointments as well. Coming off an excellent year with Detroit, Rick Porcello was acquired for the talented but disgruntled Yoenis Cespedes and promptly signed to a long-term deal. A usual ground-ball pitcher, he has been lit up for a .292 avg. and given up 18 hrs. Off-season acquisition Wade Miley hasn't been much better with a 4.49 ERA and a 1.37 Whip. And Joe kelly, acquired for the now-successful John Lackey, has been worse with a 5.67 ERA and 1.50 ERA that earned him a recent demotion.
So, what can the Sox do to recover? Firstly, they can stop thinking about trading Sandoval and Ramirez. At this juncture, nobody is touching either of those contracts without the Sox eating most of them. What Cherington and (particularly) Farrell need to make clear to Sandoval is if he doesn't get into shape, stay in shape, and become an actual productive teammate, he will continue to lose playing time to Brock Holt, Yoan Moncada, and/or even Mookie Betts. A similar citizenship message needs to be conveyed to Ramirez. And he needs to spend time this off-season working with outfield coaches and become a passable left fielder--as well as an actual teammate--or spend much of his playing time at DH. He has the athleticism, he just has to do the work.
The rest of the team doesn't need that much work. Bucholz is not quite a #1 starter, but he is a solid ace and is pitching like one. Cherington absolutely stole Lhp Eduardo Rodriguez from the Orioles, and the youngster has shown both flashes of brilliance and signs of even more future dominance. Matt Barnes has struggled mightily, but shown the potential to be a solid mid-rotation starter. Lhs Henry Owens and Brian Johnson have shown similar potential this year in AA and AAA, and Johnson has already been called up. If the BoSox sign one of the top free-agent starters, Zimmerman or Price, or even a lower-level one like Gallardo or Kazmir, they would have a solid top 3 with Bucholz and Rodriguez. They could let Porcello work out his issues at the back-end of the rotation, and give the 5th spot to the winner of the talented Barnes/Owens/Johnson trio.
As to their lineup, along with Castillo and the talented enfants terrible, the Sox have a solid core of a lineup. Pedroia is still their very productive leader at 2b. Bogaerts has become one of the best shortstops in baseball, and his power tool still hasn't developed. Mookie Betts is a multi-position dynamo, the kind of disruptive player the Bosox have rarely had. He will probably move to Rf next year to give Castillo another chance. Brock Holt is another one who, despite being less-talented than Betts, makes it up with a throw-back level of grit and intensity. And Swihart has GG defensive potential behind the plate, and only has to become a .270/.325./.400 type hitter to be productive there. Cherington, however definitely needs to replace the lamentable Napoli at 1b. A Chris Davis signing would obviously be huge, if not a trade for a mid-range player like Sf's Belt would also help. And they still have compelling position-playing prospects on the way up:
1. Rafael Devers, 3b. Sandoval's eventual replacement, Devers is a solid hitter with raw power potential and is the #13 prospect in MLB
2. Manuel Margot, Cf. He is a true 5-tool talent and already a defensive force, if raw offensively. He could be a disruptive lead-off man.
3. Andrew Benintendi, Lf 2015 Golden Spikes winner and best pure hitter in the draft, the Green Monster is waiting for his likely arrival there by 2017.
4. Yoan Moncada, 2b-3b This toolsy Cuban infielder could threaten Sandoval's playing time, as well as replace Betts as super-sub. The Red Sox certainly aren't paying him the big bucks to languish on the bench or in the minors.
So, the Sox are not a lost cause and are not far from returning to recent glory. Cherington is still the young, bright ex-Epstein protege who did patch together a World Series champion. He just needs to realize there's more nuance to team-building than selecting players who best fit his statistical/analytical plan. Character and make-up do count, and they can make a decent team both a winner or a loser. Farrell is a different matter. Although he has an undoubtedly sound pitching mind and a thoughtfulness that helped enable the 2013 champs, that thoughtfulness has come with a gentility and distaste for confrontation...which has led him to defend veteran players instead of properly benching them when needed. In other words, his control of his clubhouse has not been optimal. If Cherington and Farrell can right these unproductive tendencies, they should be given the chance to right this not-quite-sinking ship. If either or both of them don't, they should be let go and replaced by others who can.
Two years later, the BoSox are 7 games under .500 and languishing in last place. Cherington's three expensive major signings: 3b Pablo Sandoval, Lf Hanley Ramirez, and Cf Rusney Castillo--have been relative disasters. Like always, Sandoval has played the season overweight, produced a woeful .267/.309/.387 line, and gained notoriety for instagramming a female fan from the can during a game. Ramirez has been as god-awful defensively as he has been outstanding offensively. He's turned left-field play into a regular horror show for Red Sox pitchers, leaving them with grimaces at every ball hit his way. He has also alienated his teammates with his same laissez-faire attitude that alienated his past Dodger and Marlin teammates. And the supposed 5-tool Castillo has looked like a no-tool fraud whose non-production has led to a recent demotion.
And Cherington's recent pitching acquisitions have been disappointments as well. Coming off an excellent year with Detroit, Rick Porcello was acquired for the talented but disgruntled Yoenis Cespedes and promptly signed to a long-term deal. A usual ground-ball pitcher, he has been lit up for a .292 avg. and given up 18 hrs. Off-season acquisition Wade Miley hasn't been much better with a 4.49 ERA and a 1.37 Whip. And Joe kelly, acquired for the now-successful John Lackey, has been worse with a 5.67 ERA and 1.50 ERA that earned him a recent demotion.
So, what can the Sox do to recover? Firstly, they can stop thinking about trading Sandoval and Ramirez. At this juncture, nobody is touching either of those contracts without the Sox eating most of them. What Cherington and (particularly) Farrell need to make clear to Sandoval is if he doesn't get into shape, stay in shape, and become an actual productive teammate, he will continue to lose playing time to Brock Holt, Yoan Moncada, and/or even Mookie Betts. A similar citizenship message needs to be conveyed to Ramirez. And he needs to spend time this off-season working with outfield coaches and become a passable left fielder--as well as an actual teammate--or spend much of his playing time at DH. He has the athleticism, he just has to do the work.
The rest of the team doesn't need that much work. Bucholz is not quite a #1 starter, but he is a solid ace and is pitching like one. Cherington absolutely stole Lhp Eduardo Rodriguez from the Orioles, and the youngster has shown both flashes of brilliance and signs of even more future dominance. Matt Barnes has struggled mightily, but shown the potential to be a solid mid-rotation starter. Lhs Henry Owens and Brian Johnson have shown similar potential this year in AA and AAA, and Johnson has already been called up. If the BoSox sign one of the top free-agent starters, Zimmerman or Price, or even a lower-level one like Gallardo or Kazmir, they would have a solid top 3 with Bucholz and Rodriguez. They could let Porcello work out his issues at the back-end of the rotation, and give the 5th spot to the winner of the talented Barnes/Owens/Johnson trio.
As to their lineup, along with Castillo and the talented enfants terrible, the Sox have a solid core of a lineup. Pedroia is still their very productive leader at 2b. Bogaerts has become one of the best shortstops in baseball, and his power tool still hasn't developed. Mookie Betts is a multi-position dynamo, the kind of disruptive player the Bosox have rarely had. He will probably move to Rf next year to give Castillo another chance. Brock Holt is another one who, despite being less-talented than Betts, makes it up with a throw-back level of grit and intensity. And Swihart has GG defensive potential behind the plate, and only has to become a .270/.325./.400 type hitter to be productive there. Cherington, however definitely needs to replace the lamentable Napoli at 1b. A Chris Davis signing would obviously be huge, if not a trade for a mid-range player like Sf's Belt would also help. And they still have compelling position-playing prospects on the way up:
1. Rafael Devers, 3b. Sandoval's eventual replacement, Devers is a solid hitter with raw power potential and is the #13 prospect in MLB
2. Manuel Margot, Cf. He is a true 5-tool talent and already a defensive force, if raw offensively. He could be a disruptive lead-off man.
3. Andrew Benintendi, Lf 2015 Golden Spikes winner and best pure hitter in the draft, the Green Monster is waiting for his likely arrival there by 2017.
4. Yoan Moncada, 2b-3b This toolsy Cuban infielder could threaten Sandoval's playing time, as well as replace Betts as super-sub. The Red Sox certainly aren't paying him the big bucks to languish on the bench or in the minors.
So, the Sox are not a lost cause and are not far from returning to recent glory. Cherington is still the young, bright ex-Epstein protege who did patch together a World Series champion. He just needs to realize there's more nuance to team-building than selecting players who best fit his statistical/analytical plan. Character and make-up do count, and they can make a decent team both a winner or a loser. Farrell is a different matter. Although he has an undoubtedly sound pitching mind and a thoughtfulness that helped enable the 2013 champs, that thoughtfulness has come with a gentility and distaste for confrontation...which has led him to defend veteran players instead of properly benching them when needed. In other words, his control of his clubhouse has not been optimal. If Cherington and Farrell can right these unproductive tendencies, they should be given the chance to right this not-quite-sinking ship. If either or both of them don't, they should be let go and replaced by others who can.