Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

I guess the randomizer for pitcher column rolls was stuck on 6. Check the top of the 9th.

http://onlinegames.strat-o-matic.com/game/427190/755

I know this won't be much consolation, but the odds of rolling the same column four times in a row aren't as bad as you might think.

The odds are 1/1 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/216. That's the same odds as rolling a 1-2 on a hitter's card.

The odds of rolling a specific column goes up to 1/1296. However, I gave the odds for rolling any column four times in a row.

On the other hand, it's no consolation at all if you want the odds of rolling specifically four 6-7 or 6-8s in a row:

(11/216)^4

That is approximately 1 chance in 150,000.

coyote303 wrote:I know this won't be much consolation, but the odds of rolling the same column four times in a row aren't as bad as you might think.

The odds are 1/1 * 1/6 * 1/6 * 1/6 = 1/216. That's the same odds as rolling a 1-2 on a hitter's card.

The odds of rolling a specific column goes up to 1/1296. However, I gave the odds for rolling any column four times in a row.

On the other hand, it's no consolation at all if you want the odds of rolling specifically four 6-7 or 6-8s in a row:

(11/216)^4

That is approximately 1 chance in 150,000.

"So you're telling me there's a chance... YEAH!"

I'm not sure why repetitious "dice rolls" still surprise or bother people. If the system is working right, the 6 result has as much chance to repeat as it does to subsequently produce any of the other 5 numbers. So a repetition--like a repeated 6--is no less of a likely result than 6, 2, 5, 4....or some other non repeating string of results. As to the 2-12 results, 7 and 8 are obviously more likely results than others, so their repetition should be even less surprising.

I think it's human nature to groan whenever the dice rolls the wrong way. I hate this game too - for various reasons.

ugg, what are the odds? trying to stage a late comeback the other night I had my offense face 11 straight ab's on the pitchers card. the odds were something like 2000/1 against it. I got 1 hit out of the 11 ab's.

poolman wrote:ugg, what are the odds? trying to stage a late comeback the other night I had my offense face 11 straight ab's on the pitchers card. the odds were something like 2000/1 against it. I got 1 hit out of the 11 ab's.

Is that really the odds? I haven't worked out the continuation of 50/50 over an extended string like 1-11 since high school, but I'm not sure it's that outlandish. Maybe a math person like MARCPELLETIER can figure it out.

(1/2)11=.00048=.048%. 100/.048=2,083

1 in 2083

I thought 2,048, but since I counted this up using fingers and toes, I can't show my work.

Rounding differences probably. Same ballpark.