2015 MLB Cy Youngs

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l.strether

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2015 MLB Cy Youngs

PostSun Aug 30, 2015 2:10 pm

The season is coming to a close, and the deserved winners of this years' Cy Youngs are becoming more clear. As always, there are the expected contenders--e.g. Price, Kershaw, and Scherzer--as well as the unexpected--e.g. Greinke's monster season, DeGrom's stunning breakthrough, and Keuchel's commanding arrival. Here are my top ten choices with 1 month remaining:

National League
1. Zack Greinke, Sp, Dodgers. 9 years ago, Greinke missed almost all of the 2006 season with the Royals due to social anxiety and depression. Now, after a solid recovery, some strong seasons in Milwaukee and Anaheim, Greinke has grown to become arguably the best pitcher in baseball. Already armed with a consistent low-mid 90's fastball and a wicked slider, Greinke has used his substantial intelligence to soundly utilize statistical analysis to gain an even greater edge on opposing batters. That has led to a remarkable 1.61 ERA and 0.85 Whip, while holding batters to a paltry .189 avg., as he and Kershaw have become the most dominating 1-2 punch of the millennium.

2. Jake Arrieta, Sp, Cubs. One of many pieces of evidence of Epstein's genius in Chicago, Arrieta must make Orioles fans wince every time he pitches. Arrieta always had good stuff, with a solid 92-95 mph fastball and a plus curveball and slider, but Baltimore lost patience with his slowly-developing command. Epstein swiped him for 1/2 a year of Scott Feldman, and the rest is history. After his excellent break-through year last year, he has improved to becoming the Cubs undoubted ace, winning 16 games with a beautiful line of 2.22 ERA, 0.98 Whip, and an opposing batting avg. of .204.

3. Clayton Kershaw, Sp, Dodgers.
Kershaw--arguably the most dominating pitcher in baseball--is usually a lock for the number one spot on this list, but an atypically slow start and teammate Zack Greinke's marvelous year have prevented that. He has still had an excellent season, including a dominant second half. So, while he has an atypically low 11 wins, he still has produced an impressive 2.24 ERA and a career-high 11.48 K's/9IP. So, despite past playoff failures, he and Greinke should be well-prepped to give the Dodgers a head start in any playoff series they play.

4. Jacob deGrom, Sp, Mets. DeGrom is that rare player who became a far greater player in the majors than scouts or his minor league performance predicted. Typically sitting at 92-94 in the minor leagues, BA and other scouts saw his ceiling as a #4-#3 starter. As the now Mets ace, and one of the game's best starters, Degrom's fastball regularly sits in the mid-90's and he easily and often dials it up to the high 90's, with a solid changeup to wickedly finish batters off. As the Mets' new ace, he has produced an outstanding line of a 2.32 ERA and a .94 Whip this year, 9.44 with K/s IP. With Syndergaard's inferior command (to Degrom's) and Harvey's slightly diminished post-surgery fastball, deGrom should be the leader of a--injuries allowing--dominant Mets rotation for years.

5. Gerrit Cole, Sp, Pirates.
Unlike the smaller Greinke, and sleeper prospect DeGrom, everyone saw Stone Cole coming. 6'5", 230 lbs, and the number one pick in the 2011 rd pick, after humming in 100 mph fastballs at UCLA, everyone expected Cole to be a dominating ace, and he hasn't disappointed. Improving his ERA by one run and his Whip by .1 pts from last year, Cole has harnessed his command of his devastating fastball and a heavy wipe-out slider to become the Pirate's clear ace--with 15 wins, a 2.44 ERA, and a 1.11 Whip--and one of the most intimidating starters in the game. Cole's only problem is he's a bit lonely in the Pirates' mediocre rotation, particularly after Burnett's injury. However, if gigantic top prospect Tyler Glasnow comes through, the Bucs could have a formidable 1-2 for a long time.

6. Micheal Wacha, Sp, Cardinals
7. Mark Melancon, Rp, Pirates
8. Matt Harvey, Sp, Mets
9. Max Scherzer, Sp, Nationals
10. Trevor Rosenthatl, Rp, Cardinals

American League
1. Dallas Keuchel, Sp, Astros. Like DeGrom, Keuchel has well-surpassed expectations for a 7th round pick who never rose higher than 21st on the Astros' prospect list. With a fastball regularly sitting at only 90-91 mph, the sinkerballing Keuchel has harnessed command of his change-up and slow curveball to become the traditional crafty repertoire-oriented lefty. He has done so consistently throughout this playoff-hunting season for The Astros, producing 15 wins, a 2.28 ERA, and a 1.00 Whip, while becoming their unquestionable ace. And even if Fiers and Kazmir leave next year, he will still lead a strong staff including Collin McHugh, Lance McCullers Jr., Vincent Velasquez, and one-time #1 over all pick, Mark Appel.

2. Sonny Gray, Sp, Athletics.
Like Roy Oswalt, Greg Maddux, and Pedro Martinez, scouts originally underestimated the undersized Gray, as teams let the All-American from Vanderbilt slip to the A's at 18th overall. The A's are obviously content, as Gray has gone on to become their ace and best player, a fiery competitor--despite his choirboy looks--who consistently dials it up in the mid-high 90's with a wicked power-curveball, producing 12 wins, a 2.13 ERA, and a .98 Whip. Unfortunately for Gray, support from the subpar Oakland offense has been hard to come by, and he toils in the rotation without any #2 or #3 starter for support. Considering the A's small war-chest, and the likelihood of his leaving for a better team, he won't have to endure such solitude much further.

3. David Price, Sp, Blue Jays. Like Gray, Price was an All-American at Vanderbilt. Unlike him, he was decidedly not underestimated for size or anything else. The consensus # 1 pick of the 2007 draft, Price, a big 6/6" lefty armed with a mid-90's fastball and a wicked slider, had #1 starter written all over him. However, outside of 2010 and his 2012 Cy Young year, Price has predominantly pitched like a #2 whose command didn't quite enable him to consistently dominate. This year has been different. Already having an ace-worthy year for Detroit, Price has pitched even better for the Blue Jays since their acquiring him mid-season and has a cumulative line of 13 wins, a 2.42 ERA, and a 1.08 Whip. Now the ace of the resurgent Jays, Price can further show why he deserves to be the top free agent in next year's class.

4. Chris Archer, Sp, Rays.
In one of his best trades with the Rays, talent-recognition whiz Andrew Friedman sent perennially inconsistent and hotheaded Sp Matt Garza for the raw Archer--and Hak-Ju Lee, Robinson Chirinos, and Brandon Guyer--who had dominated AA Tennessee. Although its taken a few years, Archer has grown into a solid #2 starter and ace of the Rays staff, as he has mowed down American League starters with arguably the best slider in the league. Although poor support has kept him from winning many games, he has produced an impressive 1.04 Whip, as well as an astounding 11.16 K's per 9 ips. If Matt Moore recovers from his surgery, he, Archer, and Jake Odorizzi should provide a potent front three for years.

5. Scott Kazmir, Sp, Astros.
It was years ago when Kazmir was the under-sized fire-balling 1st round pick of the Mets who was infamously given away to the Rays for the mighty Victor Zambrano. Kazmir proceeded to become the Rays ace and one of the top strikeout artists in the American League. Unfortunately, Kazmir's drop in command coupled with injuries led to a failed stop in Anaheim and a drop to the Independent Leagues. Now, after a successful comeback in Cleveland and a standout year in Oakland, Kazmir is again one of the top lh-ers in the league, and has shined for both Oakland and Houston, producing an outstanding 2.45 ERA and 1.10 ERA without any support. He now has a playoff hunt and a big free agent payoff to which he can look forward. The independent leagues are now a distant memory.

6. Chris Sale, Sp, White Sox
7. Felix Hernandex, Sp, Mariners
8. Zack Britton, Rp, Orioles
9. Wade Davis, Rp, Royals
10. Andrew Miller, Rp, Yankees
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poolman

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Re: 2015 MLB Cy Youngs

PostSun Aug 30, 2015 7:58 pm

the greinke info reminds me of this short I read in spring training. he has future front office written all over him.
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GM Greinke

Before signing with the Dodgers, Zack Greinke famously discussed the club's farm system with general manager Ned Colletti and president Stan Kasten during their initial meetings. During his time with the Brewers, Greinke would occasionally sit in with GM Doug Melvin in their draft war room.

In short, Greinke enjoys the personnel side of the sport. So it's only natural that Greinke was asked about teammate Clayton Kershaw's record seven-year, $215 million contract.

"I thought it was solid for both sides," Greinke said. "He's the best pitcher, but pitching is a little less predictable than position players long term. You can't give him a 10-year, $32 million a year deal."

When Greinke signed his six-year, $147 million contract with the Dodgers in December 2012, his $24.5 million average annual value was the highest ever for a pitcher. That number has been passed three times since, by Felix Hernandez ($27.1 million) and Justin Verlander ($28 million) last winter, and Kershaw ($30.6 million) this offseason. Still, Kershaw's deal was close to Greinke's prediction.

"He's been so good, you can't really tell. Anything he gets you can probably say he's worth it. I would say it's a little bit more than I thought it would be, but maybe only $1 million a year," Greinke said. "The opt out for him is big."
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l.strether

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Re: 2015 MLB Cy Youngs

PostSun Aug 30, 2015 8:34 pm

Thanks for that piece, Poolman. Greinke is definitely a very cerebral player and a very intelligent man. I think any team would be lucky to add him to their front office after he retires as a pitcher.

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