Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

With one month left in the season, the winners of this years MVP awards are becoming more clear. These aren't my predictions for the winners, but my picks for the most valuable players in each league so far:

National League
1. Bryce Harper, Rf, Nationals. As SI cover boy in high school, and a dominating mix of sublime power at the plate, speed on the basepaths and cannon arm in rf, Harper looked primed for immediate stardom. However, injuries, some natural immaturity, and his perilous all-out style of play stalled that. This season, Harper has put it together--including greatly improving his plate discipline--to become the most dominating player in the NL, and one of MLB's three best players...along with Trout and McCutchen. With an ungodly line of .333/.461/.630 and 31 hrs, Harper has almost single-handedly led the Nationals into contention. Too bad few others, particularly of the Nats' pitchers, have stepped up.

2. Andrew McCutchen, Cf, Pirates. After a career year last year, Cutch got off to a terrible start this one, batting just .179 with a .296 OBP after 20 games. However, he has gotten tremendously hot as his team has gotten hot, or perhaps the other way around. Playing the GG level defense he has all season, he has also torn it up offensively, raising his line to an impressive .304/.404/.520 with 20 hrs. The Pirates greatest player since Clemente, with the potential to be greater, Cutch has a talented Pirates crew of Cole, Kang, Walker, and Marte, which just may be the best in baseball.

3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1b, Diamondbacks. Goldschmidt has had to prove himself every step of his career. An 8th-rd draft choice, he was never ranked higher than 11th among the Dbacks' prospects, as scouts questioned his strikeouts and ability to hit righthanders. For the last few years he has allayed those concerns by becoming one of the best 1bmen in baseball. This year he has become one of its best players period, producing an astounding line of .322/.437/.563 with 27 hrs, and has become a greater threat on the basepaths with 21 sbs. The only question remaining is if Dave Stewart and crew can provide some more quality players to surround him.

4. Buster Posey, C, Giants. Currently in his sixth year of the undoubted leader--on and off the field--of the Giants, it is remarkable to realize he is still only 28. As always, Posey has been one of the best defensive catchers in the NL this year not named Molina. He has also been the mainstay and center of its lineup, producing an impressive line of .321/.378/.474 with 16 hrs. He has also done a remarkable job with the pitching staff, helping rookies Osich, Heston, and Strickland shine--including Heston's no-hitter--and helping coax a career year out of George Kontos. The Giants would be lost without him.

5. Anthony Rizzo, 1b, Cubs. Along with Jake Arrieta dominating and rookie Kris Bryant shining, Anthony Rizzo's MVP-level year is making Theo Epstein (and Jed Hoyer) look more and more brilliant. Epstein and Hoyer--who loved Rizzo when he was in the Red Sox system--stole Rizzo from the Padres and have watched him become their best player and undoubted leader. While not showing quite as much power as last year, Rizzo has become a more consistent hitter, has cut down his strikeouts, and has even become a threat on the basepaths this year, while providing leadership to youngsters like Bryant, Russell, Schwarber, and Soler. A brave survivor of Hodgkin's Lymphoma, Rizzo should be an MVP candidate for years to come.

6. Zack Greinke, Dodgers
7. Nolan Arenado, 3b, Rockies
8. Adrian Gonzalez, Dodgers
9. Trevor Rosenthal, Rp, Cardinals
10. Dee Gordon, 2b, Marlins

American League
1. Josh Donaldson, 3b, Blue Jays. After Josh Donaldson's argument with Billy Beane last year over his going on the disabled list, word went around the league Beane intended to move him. Never missing an opportunity to grab a player at odds with his organization--e.g. Yunel Escobar and Colby Rasmus--Anthopolous jumped at acquiring/stealing Donaldson from the A's in the organizations most significant move in decades. The scrappy Donaldson immediately became the team's best player and leader, providing the fire once provided from the traded Brett Lawrie, but with much better production. Consistently staying at .280-.90/.370/.570 all year, Donaldson has produced an excellent line of .301/.369./584 with 36 hrs and 108 rbis. Tulo, Price, Bautista, and Osuna have all helped, but if the Jays win it , it will be because of Donaldson.

2. Mike Trout, Cf, Angels. Its says a lot about Trout, arguably MLB's best player since Aaron, that even a "lesser" year for him is pure MVP-caliber. Although he's not hitting or stealing bases quite as well as in his sublime seasons of 2012-13, Trout still has produced an outstanding line of .296/.397/.574 with 33 hrs, while playing his usual excellent defense, although being surpassed there this year by Kevin Kiermaier and Lorenzo Cain. Also, despite his soft-spokkenness and somewhat quiet demeanor, Trout has definitely become a team leader, giving younger players like Giavotella, Calhoun, Shoemaker a sturdy presence to whom they could look for a strong example.

3. Nelson Cruz, Mariners. When the deservedly departed Jack Zduriencik signed Nelson Cruz, many scoffed his power wouldn't play in Safeco. They both mistakenly underestimated the extension of that power, as well as the solid hitter Cruz was for the Orioles last year. Cruz has defintitely built on that performance this year with an outstanding line of .311/381/.590 and a very impressive 39 hrs for playing in Safeco. He has also done so without any significant help in the Mariners' line-up, as both Seager and Cano have been sub-par this year. With the Mariners' poor performance, Cruz has no chance of winning the award, but he has been one of the three best offensive players in the league this year, and deserves many votes.

4. Lorenzo Cain, CF, Royals. Unlike Alcides Escobar, his partner in the Zack Greinke trade, Cain didn't make an immediate impact with the Royals, spending his first year with the organization at Omaha. He then spent his next two years as a part-time player, admittedly lacking the confidence to assert himself as a regular. Last year changed things, as he became one of the top center fielders and lead-off men in the league. This year, he has just become their best and most valuable player, a dangerous hitter, disruptive lead-off man, and ace center-fielder producing a stellar line of .311/.367/.480 with 12 hrs and 26sbs. In a park privileging defense, speed, and gap-hitting, he has become the epitome of the ace Kauffman player worthy of many MVP votes.

5. Manny Machado, 3b, Orioles. Before the 2010 draft, Machado, because of his size, arm, smooth glove, and power potential drew many A-Rod comparisons. However, injuries and substantial immaturity kept him from reaching close to that potential. And while he hasn't shown, and probably won't show, A-Rods formidable power--roids-assisted or not--Machado has become the player scouts believed he can be. Now the Orioles lead off hitter, Machado has improved his plate discipline, producing a .290/.355/.495 line with 26 hrs and a career-high 16 sbs. He has also played his usual GG defense at 3b, while flashing his arguably league-best infield arm. Still only a very young 23, the Orioles' should be the fiery, but matured, Machado's team for years to come.

6. J.D. Martinez, Rf, Tigers
7. Jose Altuve, 2b, Astros
8. Micheal Brantley, Lf, Indians
9. Jose Abreu, 1b, White Sox
10. Eric Hosmer, 1b, Royals

I think you've done a good job with these lists. I'd say that Votto and Bryant merit inclusion on the NL side. Particularly Votto, who essentially has played as Goldschmidt's equal but is flying much under the radar given Cinci's lousy season. A .458 obp/.563 slugging line in this pitching-friendly climate is a monstrous performance, and he's been healthy too. Your #1's are correct in both leagues. Greinke makes for an interesting MVP case but I think Harper gets the nod on the merits and also because I disagree with giving the mvp award to pitchers since they have the cy.

teamnasty wrote:I think you've done a good job with these lists. I'd say that Votto and Bryant merit inclusion on the NL side. Particularly Votto, who essentially has played as Goldschmidt's equal but is flying much under the radar given Cinci's lousy season. A .458 obp/.563 slugging line in this pitching-friendly climate is a monstrous performance, and he's been healthy too. Your #1's are correct in both leagues. Greinke makes for an interesting MVP case but I think Harper gets the nod on the merits and also because I disagree with giving the mvp award to pitchers since they have the cy.

Thanks. Votto and Bryant definitely merit inclusion in the top ten, particularly considering Bryant's recent surge. A case could actually be made for listing Votto 4th or 5th, he's had an excellent year and his OPS has been astounding. For me, I placed him 11th since, as you point out, Cincy has been terrible this year, and I would have liked to see a few more rbis. So, he got edged out by players who either contributed to playoff contenders or was barely edged out by Gordon, who had an amazing lead-off year, and Arenado, who had outstanding (admittedly Coors-inflated) power stats and GG defense at 3b. But, again, if someone had Votto 4th or 5th, I think that would be valid as well.

As to Greinke, I also prefer regular players, unless its a case like Verlander in 2011 or Kershaw last year, when a starter dominates so much (without considerable contribution by other players) and becomes the team's (and league's) clear MVP. Greinke has been sublime this year, but since Gonzo and Kershaw substantially contributed as well, he dropped to 6th for me.

The one thing I'll say on the mvp race, wayyyy too much emphasis is put on the team's record. Individual players just cannot take over a team like they do in basketball. Matt Snyder of CBS sports wrote a great article about this...using Votto as an example. He's putting up crushing numbers comparable to his 2010 MVP season, yet because the rest of his team is exponentially worse, his contributions are diminished in the eyes of many and will probably be an afterthought in this year's voting. It's an age-old debate, but if you get the chance to read the article please do.

It is an age-old debate and it's a difficult one to "finish." Firstly, there are three elements suggested in the term most valuable player: the player's performance, his value to his team, and the "proof" of that value. The most difficult one to discern is the last one, as some people logically argue that proof would manifest itself in a high number of team wins, and other people can also logically argue all that matters is the number of wins the player helped occur. So, people can both justify their emphasizing high team wins and de-emphasizing them...as long as neither becomes excessive in doing so. I think you're right, though, that the pendulum has swayed a bit too much towards emphasizing them.

For my part, I probably over-valued high vs. low team wins a bit on my list, and after re-examining Votto's stats, definitely did so with him...and should have him higher on my list. That being said, I think everyone still sees high vs. low team wins as a factor in composing their MVP lists; we just disagree on how important it is. Considering how difficult it is to measure and compare players' performances--particularly pitchers' values vs. hitters' values--it is just one of many elements in the difficult process of determining MVP's.

Anyways, thanks for the article suggestion, and I look forward to reading it.

Not having Votto right with Goldschmidt is a joke, a case can be made that his numbers are better than Goldy's, his OPS is 1.051 vs R, where Goldy's is 0.987, only place Goldy's is better is with SB, but not having Votto ahead of Rizzo is laughable, Rizzo is hitting .264 vs R, OPS for Votto 1.024, Rizzo 0.917, and Votto not even in your top 10, just crazy.

As far as Grienke vs Verlander 2011 and Kershaw 2014, Grienke's numbers are right in line, depending on what statistic you are looking at, but vs Verlander, ERA 1.64 vs 2.40, HR 10 vs 24, Grienke loses in K's (169 vs 250), but K/9 and WHIP are very comparable. Grienke vs Kershaw, very similar except in K/9 where Kershaw is far superior. Grienke may not win MVP with year Harper is having, but I can easily see a top 3-4.

Keyzick wrote;

"The one thing I'll say on the mvp race, wayyyy too much emphasis is put on the team's record."

and I very much agree.

l.strether wrote:It is an age-old debate and it's a difficult one to "finish." Firstly, there are three elements suggested in the term most valuable player: the player's performance, his value to his team, and the "proof" of that value. The most difficult one to discern is the last one, as some people logically argue that proof would manifest itself in a high number of team wins, and other people can also logically argue all that matters is the number of wins the player helped occur. So, people can both justify their emphasizing high team wins and de-emphasizing them...as long as neither becomes excessive in doing so. I think you're right, though, that the pendulum has swayed a bit too much towards emphasizing them.

For my part, I probably over-valued high vs. low team wins a bit on my list, and after re-examining Votto's stats, definitely did so with him...and should have him higher on my list. That being said, I think everyone still sees high vs. low team wins as a factor in composing their MVP lists; we just disagree on how important it is. Considering how difficult it is to measure and compare players' performances--particularly pitchers' values vs. hitters' values--it is just one of many elements in the difficult process of determining MVP's.

Anyways, thanks for the article suggestion, and I look forward to reading it.

So nice of you to edit your response after my post was posted, I'll take credit for that, thank you.

I just think punishing a great player who is having a historic season because the rest of his team isn't playing well enough to make the playoffs is a little stupid. Maybe they need a second award called, "The Best Player on a Playoff Team".

I agree that the pitchers have the Cy Young, so give the MVP to an everyday player.

The MVP over the years has morphed in to a best player on a good team award. I think it should be a league award. Player who was most valuable to the league. Ignore team records.

Because of that I tend to put more stock in the annual Henry Aaron award. I wish that the MVP could become obsolete and each year we talk about the Henry Aaron award instead.

The Hank Aaron Award is given annually to the Major League Baseball (MLB) players selected as the top hitter in each league, as voted on by baseball fans and members of the media. It was introduced in 1999 to commemorate the 25th anniversary of Hank Aaron's surpassing of Babe Ruth's career home run mark of 714 home runs. The award was the first major award to be introduced by Major League Baseball in 19 years.

Year AL Hank Aaron Winner NL Hank Aaron Winner
2014 Mike Trout Giancarlo Stanton
2013 Miguel Cabrera Paul Goldschmidt
2012 Miguel Cabrera Buster Posey
2011 Jose Bautista Matt Kemp
2010 Jose Bautista Joey Votto
2009 Derek Jeter Albert Pujols
2008 Kevin Youkilis Aramis Ramirez
2007 Alex Rodriguez Prince Fielder
2006 Derek Jeter Ryan Howard
2005 David Ortiz Andruw Jones
2004 Manny Ramirez Barry Bonds
2003 Alex Rodriguez Albert Pujols
2002 Alex Rodriguez Barry Bonds
2001 Alex Rodriguez Barry Bonds
2000 Carlos Delgado Todd Helton
1999 Manny Ramirez Sammy Sosa