Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

Have to admit I fell like noob asking this question because I usually don't look at the T-rating for catchers at all. Haven't played the board game in decades so I'm not as familiar with all the behind the scenes rolls.

How bad is a T-18?

I'm not a real number cruncher, so I'll leave the real answer to better brains.

From the rules:
If second or third base is successfully stolen, and 1,2 or 3 was rolled during the successful steal, roll the 20-sided die again. Refer to the defensive catcher's card for his "T" number(s). If the number rolled is within the range of the catcher's "T" number(s), a throwing error by the catcher has occurred, allowing the baserunner(s) to advance one additional base. No throwing error occurs if the number rolled is not listed among the defensive catcher's "T" number(s).

So T-18 is pretty bad; not Victor Martinez bad, but bad. How often it actually gets called into question is another matter (it happens, but it's not that often). I'll often use catchers with a bit more risk in hitters park than pitchers parks, but if my opponents have a bunch of base stealers I'd reevaluate. It all adds up.

I have no numbers to back my opinion up--so this is just my take.

It depends on how many SB are attempted against you.

If the catcher has a minus arm, and your pitchers generally have minus hold ratings---I don't think it is a big liability. Only the super stealers will try to steal anyway.

If everyone is average or slightly worse--watch out for lots of SB and throwing errors.

If you have a really bad (+6 or so) hold pitcher thrown in the mix, Hal probably doesn't bother to try the throw with a bad T rating.

milleram wrote:I have no numbers to back my opinion up--so this is just my take.

It depends on how many SB are attempted against you.

If the catcher has a minus arm, and your pitchers generally have minus hold ratings---I don't think it is a big liability. Only the super stealers will try to steal anyway.

If everyone is average or slightly worse--watch out for lots of SB and throwing errors.

If you have a really bad (+6 or so) hold pitcher thrown in the mix, Hal probably doesn't bother to try the throw with a bad T rating.

Exactly, with a combo pitcher/catcher of -4, you can expect roughly 40 stealing attempts, so a T-20 would allow on average 6 bad throws, but with a combo of +4, it's likely 160 attempts or more and 25 bad throws.

MARCPELLETIER wrote:
Exactly, with a combo pitcher/catcher of -4, you can expect roughly 40 stealing attempts, so a T-20 would allow on average 6 bad throws, but with a combo of +4, it's likely 160 attempts or more and 25 bad throws.

I've never seen those metrics, is there a chart somewhere or formula showing all the likely attempts combos?

Exactly, with a combo pitcher/catcher of -4, you can expect roughly 40 stealing attempts, so a T-20 would allow on average 6 bad throws, but with a combo of +4, it's likely 160 attempts or more and 25 bad throws.

Oops, corrections needed...the numbers I gave above apply for -3 and for +3 respectively. I should have added that these numbers apply for 20XX (and even more precisely, for the more recent years 201X), and not for ATG.

To answer bbfan, it's based on my own analysis, based on estimating the impact of catchers' arm and hold ratings.

Here are the details (data for a full season)

Combos averaging -4...22 total attempts...67% success rate
Combos averaging -3...44 total attempts...71% success rate
Combos averaging -2...66 total attempts...72% success rate
Combos averaging -1...88 total attempts...73% success rate
...and so forth, adding 22 attempts at each level, success rate pretty much platoon at 74% for all other levels

I made my system linear (increasing 22 attempts for every "hold" unit) as I didn't see the need to have a steeper increase.

The major limitation is that I based my evaluation on team averages...so these numbers are too gross approximations to hold for individual pitchers. To predict stolen bases attempts for individual pitchers, you would have to consider on-base, ballpark ratings, usage (number of expected innings), etc.

T rating is very important. Nothing worse than your catcher throwing the ball into CF on a steal attempt of 2B. However if your catcher has a minus throwing arm coupled with minus hold ratings from your pitchers there will be fewer stolen base attempts which will limit these throwing errors.

LM wrote:

T rating is very important.

Not to be a jerk but..,compared to what? I always hear people talk about the importance of outfielder arms and I think that is one of the least important things.... Though I agree it probably depends on a lot of factors.... Just because you can remember a few times of being burned by your catcher's T rating in a couple of memorable situations does not mean it is something that matters much say compared to your SS range rating. .... I do not claim to know the numbers behind the importance but anecdotal stories about getting burned by a T range are not evidence of it's significance...... You guys seem to know more than me about the T rating, as it is something I never investigated too deeply before...... That is why I appreciate reading what you guys write. Thanks.

The T rating is not important if you are comparing it to players from other positions. However when comparing catchers when deciding what catcher to put on your AD card it cannot be ignored. To me it is just as important as the catcher's throwing arm. I would not want a catcher with a +3 arm with a T rating of 0 just like I would not want a catcher, no matter what his throwing rating is, with a T rating above a 12 or so unless he would be my backup catcher. This is simply my personal rule. Feel free to continue ignoring the T rating if you prefer.

So the 2014 McKenry would not be on your draft list?

c-3(+2)e7,T-14(pb-3)