Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

18th November EDIT: Here is the latest list. I still need to work on the WARP value and adjust more closely to the estimated salary, so consider the WARP as a useful way to provide the value of a player.

In the strategy page, I HAVE COMPLETED the process of explaning how I obtained a new, updated, NERP. As it is explained there, the benefit of platooning a player is automatically integrated in the value and estimated pricetag of the player (see the example of Ruf in the strategy page, 2nd page of my thread).

Here, I listed my list, for all 3M+ players.

NERP is the final results (incorporating offense, running, defense, playtime)
WARP: Winning above replacement player (8=All star; 0=roughly a 2M player)
estimated_salary= My own estimate of their salary
value= (estimated salary minus base-salary)

This ranking is based on a neutral stadium (10=for singles, 9=homeruns), 30% vs lhp et 70% vs rhp.

DH

Code: Select all

salary   NAME   NERP    WARP   est_salary   value
3.60   Ramirez,H_   56.4   3.6   $5.35   1.75
4.01   Betts,M___   55.1   3.5   $5.44   1.43
6.02   Martinez,J   65.8   4.6   $7.20   1.18
5.10   Dickerson,   60.5   4.1   $6.24   1.14
3.46   Vargas,K__   46.2   2.5   $4.39   0.93
3.28   Carter,C__   47.2   2.6   $4.15   0.87
5.59   Cruz,N____   57.2   3.7   $5.87   0.28
3.03   Reyes,J___   38.0   1.6   $2.79   -0.24


catchers

Code: Select all

salary   NAME   NERP    WARP   est_salary   value
3.46   Wieters,M_   52.2   3.1   $4.49   1.03
7.36   Martin,R__   75.4   5.7   $7.99   0.63
3.22   Molina,Y__   49.5   2.8   $3.80   0.58
3.16   Perez,S___   46.1   2.5   $3.70   0.54
4.16   Rivera,R__   52.9   3.2   $4.49   0.33
3.87   Suzuki,K__   50.1   2.9   $4.16   0.29
3.72   Cervelli,F   48.6   2.7   $3.91   0.19
8.77   Posey,B___   78.2   6.0   $8.78   0.01
3.54   Chirinos,R   45.5   2.4   $3.55   0.01
3.23   Avila,A___   42.6   2.1   $3.16   -0.07
5.95   Susac,A___   61.0   4.1   $5.88   -0.07
7.03   Mesoraco,D   67.5   4.8   $6.96   -0.07
3.78   Ruiz,C____   45.7   2.4   $3.61   -0.17
5.19   Gomes,Y___   55.0   3.4   $4.86   -0.33
6.17   McKenry,M_   58.3   3.8   $5.83   -0.34
5.36   Iannetta,C   55.5   3.5   $5.01   -0.35
3.94   Norris,D__   44.4   2.3   $3.56   -0.38
8.73   Lucroy,J__   76.3   5.8   $8.27   -0.46
4.38   Vogt,S____   45.7   2.4   $3.79   -0.59
3.22   Grandal,Y_   34.5   1.2   $2.51   -0.71
3.35   Navarro,D_   36.9   1.4   $2.55   -0.80
5.50   Gattis,E__   51.5   3.1   $4.50   -1.00


1st base

Code: Select all

salary   NAME   NERP    WARP   est_salary   value
4.64   Morse,M___   51.7   3.1   $5.13   0.49
5.02   Encarnacio   56.0   3.6   $5.48   0.46
3.64   Votto,J___   48.3   2.7   $4.06   0.42
4.08   Napoli,M__   50.7   3.0   $4.41   0.33
5.10   Cuddyer,M_   60.8   4.1   $5.41   0.31
3.32   Loney,J___   43.5   2.2   $3.62   0.30
6.11   Morneau,J_   62.2   4.2   $6.41   0.30
5.19   Duda,L____   55.0   3.4   $5.48   0.29
3.78   Adams,M___   45.4   2.4   $4.04   0.26
6.38   Ortiz,D___   60.8   4.1   $6.62   0.24
7.60   Turner,J__   71.8   5.3   $7.74   0.14
9.03   Rizzo,A___   79.1   6.1   $9.16   0.13
7.52   Goldschmid   73.5   5.5   $7.63   0.11
3.23   Belt,B____   43.9   2.2   $3.32   0.09
3.49   Lind,A____   42.8   2.1   $3.51   0.02
6.23   Gonzalez,A   60.5   4.1   $6.25   0.02
5.29   Laroche,A_   55.0   3.4   $5.31   0.02
4.87   Moss,B____   50.4   2.9   $4.86   -0.01
6.00   Pujols,A__   59.3   3.9   $5.96   -0.04
8.77   Pearce,S__   76.7   5.9   $8.67   -0.10
3.29   Cron,C____   41.7   2.0   $3.17   -0.12
8.03   Cabrera,Mi   70.6   5.2   $7.91   -0.12
9.05   Martinez,V   75.5   5.7   $8.79   -0.26
3.00   Dunn,A____   35.4   1.3   $2.53   -0.47
8.69   Freeman,F_   71.6   5.3   $8.17   -0.52
9.00   Abreu,J___   72.3   5.4   $8.19   -0.81
6.81   Santana,C_   52.3   3.1   $4.87   -1.94


2nd base

Code: Select all

salary   NAME   NERP    WARP   est_salary   value
3.02   Barney,D__   47.9   2.7   $3.88   0.86
3.00   Lemahieu,D   45.6   2.4   $3.62   0.62
3.62   Phillips,B   50.9   3.0   $4.08   0.46
4.80   Kendrick,H   57.1   3.7   $5.18   0.38
5.70   Kinsler,I_   64.6   4.5   $6.01   0.31
3.39   Cabrera,A_   42.9   2.1   $3.44   0.05
5.19   Utley,C___   56.0   3.6   $5.11   -0.08
5.46   Walker,N__   53.4   3.3   $5.33   -0.13
8.28   Cano,r____   71.8   5.3   $7.91   -0.37
6.47   Pedroia,D_   63.8   4.4   $6.00   -0.47
8.30   Dozier,B__   73.7   5.5   $7.68   -0.62
8.23   Altuve,J__   67.8   4.9   $7.51   -0.72
6.13   Zobrist,B_   52.3   3.1   $4.86   -1.27


3rd base

Code: Select all

salary   NAME   NERP    WARP   est_salary   value
3.11   McGehee,C_   42.8   2.1   $3.60   0.49
3.56   Uribe,J___   48.6   2.7   $3.92   0.36
8.43   Harrison,J   78.4   6.0   $8.78   0.35
4.11   Arenado,N_   52.8   3.2   $4.44   0.33
5.26   Negron,K__   59.1   3.9   $5.58   0.32
3.66   Valbuena,L   43.9   2.2   $3.85   0.19
4.48   Longoria,E   52.4   3.2   $4.66   0.18
3.23   Machado,M_   44.1   2.2   $3.26   0.03
4.43   Sandoval,P   47.1   2.6   $4.43   0.00
3.76   Petit,G___   45.7   2.4   $3.69   -0.07
3.11   Headley,C_   39.4   1.7   $2.82   -0.29
5.61   Carpenter,   51.8   3.1   $5.28   -0.33
5.63   Frazier,T_   57.1   3.7   $5.24   -0.39
7.07   Rendon,A__   66.2   4.7   $6.67   -0.40
7.02   Donaldson,   66.7   4.7   $6.59   -0.43
9.15   Beltre,A__   79.3   6.1   $8.61   -0.54
8.57   Seager,K__   72.1   5.3   $7.75   -0.82


shortstop

Code: Select all

salary   NAME   NERP    WARP   est_salary   value
3.24   Castro,S__   43.7   2.2   $3.61   0.37
10.70   Tulowitzki   99.1   8.3   $11.06   0.36
4.82   Crawford,B   55.5   3.5   $5.05   0.23
3.39   Gregorius,   43.4   2.2   $3.49   0.10
4.27   Hardy,J___   51.6   3.1   $4.31   0.04
4.43   Desmond,I_   50.3   2.9   $4.20   -0.23
5.66   Ramirez,Al   59.9   4.0   $5.39   -0.27
4.74   Peralta,J_   49.0   2.8   $4.35   -0.39
6.08   Escobar,A_   60.9   4.1   $5.67   -0.41
5.17   Rollins,J_   51.5   3.1   $4.49   -0.68
4.46   Aybar,E___   45.0   2.3   $3.68   -0.78
5.91   Santana,D_   52.0   3.1   $5.02   -0.89


left fielder

Code: Select all

salary   NAME   NERP    WARP   est_salary   value
3.38   Smith,S___   45.8   2.4   $4.20   0.82
4.39   Coghlan,C_   51.3   3.0   $4.85   0.46
3.57   Blackmon,C   46.8   2.5   $3.97   0.40
3.71   Crawford,C   49.6   2.8   $4.05   0.34
10.30   Brantley,M   90.6   7.4   $10.60   0.30
5.99   Holliday,M   61.7   4.2   $6.29   0.30
3.06   Ackley,D__   42.5   2.1   $3.32   0.26
3.56   Cespedes,Y   45.2   2.4   $3.82   0.26
6.39   Van Slyke,   61.8   4.2   $6.46   0.07
3.01   Hamilton,J   40.6   1.8   $2.83   -0.18
7.19   Marte,S___   67.6   4.8   $7.01   -0.18
3.87   Granderson   44.6   2.3   $3.63   -0.24
5.13   Blanco,G__   55.0   3.4   $4.87   -0.26
6.87   Upton,J___   61.6   4.2   $6.32   -0.55
3.71   Harper,B__   43.1   2.1   $3.09   -0.62
6.73   Gardner,B_   60.3   4.0   $5.64   -1.09
8.51   Gordon,A__   70.0   5.1   $7.26   -1.25
8.21   Yelich,C__   67.3   4.8   $6.91   -1.30


centerfielder

Code: Select all

salary   NAME   NERP    WARP   est_salary   value
3.84   Jay,J_____   49.8   2.9   $4.69   0.85
12.00   Trout,M___   105.7   9.1   $12.80   0.80
3.26   Dyson,J___   48.0   2.7   $4.02   0.76
4.76   Nieuwenhui   55.7   3.5   $5.45   0.69
3.64   Fowler,D__   47.2   2.6   $4.25   0.61
4.01   Stubbs,D__   52.3   3.1   $4.51   0.50
11.72   McCutchen,   101.8   8.6   $12.14   0.42
4.46   Eaton,A___   53.3   3.3   $4.86   0.40
3.89   Lagares,J_   51.6   3.1   $4.25   0.36
5.42   Pollock,A_   60.7   4.1   $5.74   0.32
3.11   Jennings,D   43.4   2.2   $3.31   0.20
3.68   Hamilton,B   45.3   2.4   $3.70   0.02
5.24   Cain,L____   58.8   3.9   $5.26   0.02
3.19   Martin,L__   38.6   1.6   $2.89   -0.30
8.88   Gomez,C___   76.3   5.8   $8.48   -0.40
7.15   Span,D____   64.2   4.5   $6.51   -0.64
6.34   Ozuna,M___   57.5   3.7   $5.57   -0.77
6.49   Ellsbury,J   60.2   4.0   $5.70   -0.79
8.32   Jones,A___   68.0   4.9   $6.54   -1.78



right fielder

Code: Select all

salary   NAME   NERP    WARP   est_salary   value
10.55   Stanton,G_   99.5   8.4   $11.80   1.25
5.56   Kemp,M____   59.8   4.0   $6.23   0.67
6.62   Pence,H___   66.0   4.7   $7.09   0.47
3.48   Springer,G   47.6   2.6   $3.90   0.42
3.90   Cabrera,Me   46.7   2.5   $4.32   0.42
6.96   Soler,J___   67.2   4.8   $7.32   0.36
4.59   Reddick,J_   53.8   3.3   $4.87   0.28
3.78   Snider,T__   45.2   2.4   $4.05   0.27
4.63   Kiermaier,   50.9   3.0   $4.86   0.23
3.34   Suzuki,I__   43.4   2.2   $3.54   0.20
4.24   Byrd,M____   50.6   3.0   $4.34   0.10
4.31   Saunders,M   54.1   3.3   $4.37   0.06
4.87   Calhoun,K_   53.7   3.3   $4.77   -0.10
3.21   Peralta,D_   39.8   1.8   $3.08   -0.13
9.39   Bautista,J   78.9   6.1   $9.07   -0.32
7.99   Werth,J___   69.8   5.1   $7.64   -0.35
6.82   Heyward,J_   61.4   4.2   $6.31   -0.51
8.95   Puig,Y____   73.9   5.5   $8.20   -0.75
6.36   Markakis,N   54.0   3.3   $4.89   -1.47



I will post soon a new list for the best and worst bargains among the cheaper players.

[/code]

The best cards (hitter, running, and defense included) vs lhp under 3M (all with overall 60 NERP or better vs lhp)

Code: Select all

salary   NAME        POS   NERP    WARP   est_salary   value  offensive NERP (not adjusted for injuries, playing time)
2.31   Walters,Z_   1   34.5   -0.1   $2.23   -0.08       33.8  x
2.39   Davis,R___   7   40.0   0.5   $2.76   0.37   26.5
1.44   Garcia,A__   9   35.0   0   $2.11   0.67  26.0 x
1.22   Ruf,D_____   3   29.6   -0.6   $1.50   0.28   26.0 x
2.03   Rosario,W_   2   31.2   -0.5   $1.69   -0.34   26.6 x
2.97   Prado,M___   5   43.4   -0,9    $3.06   0.09   25.8
1.56   Bonifacio,   5   31.0   -0.5   $1.79   0.23   22.6 x
2.84   McCann,B__   2   39.9   0.6   $2.97   0.13  19.8
1.68   Espinosa,D   4   30.0   -0.5   $1.70   0.02   19.6 x
1.72   Rios,A____   9   35.6   0.1   $2.15   0.43  23.8
2.73   Castillo,W   2   39.1   0.5   $2.72   -0.01   21.2
2.00   Johnson,C_   5   29.6   -0.5   $1.49   -0.51   23.3 x
2.56   Ramirez,Ar   5   40.1   0.6   $2.54   -0.02   24.8
2.24   Rosales,A_   3   38.7   0.5   $2.60   0.36   21.5
2.92   Ruggiano,J   9   43.1   1.0   $3.13   0.21   22.7
1.42   Mayberry J   9   32.3   -0.2   $1.77   0.35  22.1 x
2.29   Wright,D__   5   42.0   0.8   $2.89   0.60   22.3
2.55   Pennington   4   39.7   0.6   $3.07   0.52   18.1
1.43   Owings,C__   4   32.9   -0.2   $1.71   0.28   22.1
2.37   Escobar,E_   6   33.4   -0.1   $2.04   -0.33   22.1


I've always found these posts some of the most interesting on these forums, and all without a lot of prose. Thanks for sharing!

Interesting, but it doesn't seem to count injury rating into these? Also some people are done at wrong position (Turner at 1B instead of 3b as an example).

I edited first post to add the players earning less than 3M

Remember this is for neutral stadiums.

Geekor,
I do have considered injury rating, I'll explain how in the next days in the strategy section, but clearly, SOM and I don't have the same method to assess the impact of injuries. In my opinion, SOM overvalues the impact of injury, and this is why many injury-prone players are among the best buys this season.

I've put players, not at their primary position, but at the position where they have most impact defensively or, in case of negative NERP defensive value, where their defense cost less. Turner is a defensive liability both at first and at third, but his defense costs a bit less at first base, so this is why he's listed there. But I must add that the difference is tiny: His value when used at third base is NERP=70.1, WARP=4.5, estimated price 7.51M (-0.09M compared to 7.60M).

I forgot to add: I'll do the same process in the next week or so for ATG (I'm in the process of computing the NERP there as well).

Awesome Marc!!

Marc, I'm glad you're back on these boards!

Agreed!

+1

All of my best teams this year had generous helpings from the top players on these lists (usually about four value picks per team).

I have to agree with geekor that the injury ratings change the dynamics of these lists, however, I also agree with Marc that the extent is overstated by SOM. Still, SOM has a pretty decent pricing model when it's all said and done.

A couple of questions. In my opinion, the list dramatically undervalues Aybar at SS, who I have found to be a massive bargain. Not sure what the discrepancy is there. Also, I have drank deeply from the worst value pool. Guys like Lucas, Gomes, Dominguez, Thole and Frandsen have done very well for me. Do the values account for platooning and other utility situations?

Wow interesting stuff. The one 'value' guy a can't see there is Sean Rodriguez who if I was going only from what I see in the leagues I'm in, might be the best value guy in the set. How does he rank?

Michael.

Beware of the new ratings, I made a few corrections including for injury-prone players. Nevertheless, even when factoring for injury-proneness, their pricetag doesn't match their value.

J-Pav,
a glitch occurred for platoon players, they should be valued just okay by now, at least they are from my naked eyes. The values definitely account for platooning (the value is determined by how better the player should be used---I marked those players with an "x"). This said, even though a player doesn't have his "x", he might still be more effective in a platoon if he's match with the right platoon guy (in other words, the "x" marks for the obvious players who should be platoons).

Aybar has nice on-base vs rhp, but he has only 6 extra-base hits vs rhp, he's a weak hitter vs lhp, his stealing abiltiy (15-12) doesn't generate many steals (expected to be 17 sb, 10 cs). I must say, though, I didn't factor bunting and hit-and-run in my ratings, and Aybar has a perfect A-B.

Mbertolli,
Sean Rodriguez is indeed a bargain. Worth 2.93M in a neutral stadium, but it's even more in homerun stadiums. It will be fun to look for him when I display the numbers for more extreme stadiums.

Hey guys, I thought I was ready to publish my ratings, I realize I wasn't!!!

It just struck me that the way by which I get the final NERP and the final WARP is different than the way I get the final estimated salary---and therefore for a few players, especially injury-prone players with excellent defence, a discrepancy occurs. Actually, you can see by yourself the discrepancy, since there are players with the same WARP who don't have the same estimated salary. This last glitch, as far as I can tell, don't affect non-injury-prone players.

Tulowitski, being the best defender in the game, appears the most affected. I now have his estimated salary at 11.21M
Wieters, whose defense is so-so (a 2-catcher, but +2 arm) now is listed at 4.46M.

So yes, injury-prone players are overvalued by my ratings---but I still believe they are good buys, but it appears that it's not by a margin as wide as I first thought.

This is no country for the pride man

Anyway, for now, I won't change the ratings set on page 1. I'll wait before all the final fine-tunings will be set. As you may know, I'm writing down the whole thought-process behind these numbers in the strategy section in a very boring style---but it does help me give a second look at my ratings. The writing of the final part, how to integrate playing time into the ratings, is the reason why I saw this last glitch.

So please keep bringing on your comments and feedback. Any surprise to see Stanton as the best non-dh investment in the set?? Is having Jay, with his +2 arm, really worth the investment, or do you see a tendency that I underestimate the value of arms? How about Smith, a 4-fielder, being one of the best buy in left field?

Actually, Jay, Smith, Pagan, and Coco Crisp have similar cards and they all come up very good in my ratings. They have similar offensive cards---on-base vs rhp around 42-44 chances, low power (but not weak except for Jay), below average outfield defense (except for Jay, who has good range but below average arm)...so I wonder if this tendency is real or if this is not the sign that my rating system overvalues on-base, undervalues outfield defense...