Average missed games for a 5

Wanted to get an accurate count for projected injuries for a 5. I have Stanton. His injury comes up 5 out 108 times on his card. Let's says he bats cleanup and gets 710 plate appearances. That comes up to 4.38 plate apps/game or 2.19 batter rolls per game. For every 21.4 rolls on his card he gets an injury . On the 20 sided die the total number of games on average if I roll the dice 20 times is 71 games. So on average 3.3 games additional games lost per roll, ten percent of the time stays in game. So every 9.77 games an injury occurs with average loss of 3.3 games plus .45 games lost with regard to current game so a total of 3.75 games lost. So out of 13.32 games, 9.77 will be played. So out of 162, 118 games will be played with about 517 plate appearances . Can someone tell me if that calculation is correct?

Well don't know about your math, but I just completed a season with Pollack as my everyday CF who is also an injury 5 and he only had 390 AB's hitting 3rd and 4th in my lineups. He was hurt...A LOT

I figure 45 injury days for a 5(this does not count remainder of game in which they are injured) so you're in the ballpark

Thanks guys.

There was a big thread about this with the 2012 set--If I can find it I will link to it (probably be a while), but 118 games is right in the ball park with the old injuries. The new rules will definitely cause them to miss more games I think. (108 for 6 injury guys) I have gotten 130 several times out of 5 Injury guys.

In my ratings, a 5-injured player will 26% of plate appearances, so yeah, 74% X 162games = roughly 120 games.

I think I way I did it worked out to 26.7% of appearances missed (close enough for me). Thanks all for the input.

In my ratings, a 5-injured player will 26% of plate appearances, so yeah, 74% X 162games = roughly 120 games.

So hypothetically, if you had two players: one an injury-0 and the other an injury-5... if they were identical in every other aspect, would the $ value of the Injury-5 player be 74% that of the injury-0?

BG217,

Actually, thanks to your intervention, I just realized that I had a brain cramp.

100% in my ratings represents the playing time of a player with a 1-injury rating with 600-679 PA

Players with a 0-injury rating playing a full season is set at 104%.

So a 5-injured player is expected to play on average 74%/104% X 710 PA = 505 PA, or 71%

Freeman,

In your formula, you have a typo: 9.77 + 3.75 makes a sum of 13.52.

Also, not sure where you did wrong, but for a 5-injury player, assuming 710 PA, I have an average of 9.86 games without injury, not 9.77.

So 9.86/ (9.86 +3.75) X 710 PA = 514 PA, so 72%. The small gap with my calculations is probably due to rounding mistakes.

This said, if you really want to be precise, there is a case to be made that when the player is lost for the remainder of the game, you still got his last at-bat. In other words, when a player is lost for the remainder of the game, on average, you lose 50% of his defense for the day, 50% of his running for the day, but roughly only 38% of his PA of the day. But we're getting deep here!!