Cano and Cruz

I don't spend much time looking at salaries because I only do Keeper Leagues now with an few Theme Leagues now and then.

Please explain to me why Cano and Cruz have such a difference in price?

Cano 33D 39HR .298/.350/.533
Cruz 27D 43HR .287/.360/.555

Cano has a salary that costs 5.080.000 more then Cruz. Is the 1e4 cost 5MIL more then a 5(-2)e4 in RF? I understand that Cruz cant catch anything that isn't hit right at him but 5MIL more for a guy that only leads Cruz in BA by .011 points and 6D but is less in SLG and OPS and HRs? There are many very good 2B's out there this year why is he so high?

I certainly cant explain why, and comparing at different positions is kind of beyond me.

I did a little study with the 2013 and 2014 sets (probably flawed as I didn't go by the NERP ratings. I used my own defensive ratings---I consider a 3e20 as neutral at 2B and a 3e24 at SS and give points for better fielding or error ratings, subtract for worse fielding)

I compared 3 rated 2B and SS to 1 2B and SS.

To me 1 rated 2B seemed overpriced by about 1M and 1 rated SS by about 1.2M if they were in the upper tiers of pricing (say over 8M)---2 rated guys I just assume are overpriced a bit too, but probably half the above---the most bang for your buck seems to be 3 rated guys at 2B or SS (see Seager this set).

This doesn't seem to follow for OF though, especially CF. A 5 OF is trouble even in LF or RF (all the extra bases add up)

To me--the place to play a bad fielder is 1B, I'll take Ortiz at 1B on a no DH team in a heartbeat.

Good analysis milleram.

The 1 range factors are super-valuable at 2B & SS (because they get the most chances), but it's not clear to me if they are worth the premium.

I also agree with your point about OF range factors. There's something about they way SOM sets the fielding tables that outfielder defensive performance really falls off a cliff after you get past the 3s. Personally, I haven't played a 4 or 5 in OF in years (and I'm very reluctant to use a 3 in CF).

I had to do a double-take when I saw your name in the thread -

Welcome home Riggo!

Cano's salary is overpriced. My ratings have him at 9.53M.

If Cruz were used in the right field, I would estimate his salary at 4.56M---so a 5M could make sense, but since he's most likely to be used as a dh, I estimate that a salary that would better reflect his value would be 5.81M. So Cruz is likely underpaid for his value.

So the 5M difference is indeed exaggerated if Cruz is played dh. My own difference between them is that it should be around 3.8M.

Here's how it breaks down.

Cano 33D 39HR .298/.350/.533
Cruz 27D 43HR .287/.360/.555

These raw numbers suggest that Cruz should have a better offensive card (especially since both played in the same stadium), and indeed I think that Cruz has a better offensive card than Cano, at least against a traditional lhp-rhp balance. My own appreciation of the difference is that Cruz has a better offensive card than Cano by about 0.7M. Running is virutally identical so it's not a factor.

This said, Cano is a lefty bat and Cruz a righty bat. A small adjustment must account for the fact that usually pitchers allow a bit more against left-handed hitters than right-handed hitters. I estimate that adjustment to 0.3M in favour of Cano.

Cano also has a better injury profile (Cruz can be hurt 3 days; Cano only for the rest of the game), and that profile also accounts for roughly 0.3M considering the value of Cano.

Thus, before defense is considered, I have Cruz and Cano pretty much on par.

The way I make my own calculations, I estimate that Cano will save 23 runs compared to a baseline second baseman that I set arbitrary at 3e0. 23 runs is roughly worth 2.6M.

If Cruz were to play rf, his defense would cost his team 21 runs, that's worth roughly 2.3M.

2.6M + 2.3M, and you're pretty damn close to 5M.

If I were to set my baseline to a lower level, say a 2b with a 3e21 field rating, then Cano's defense would be worth 3.7M rather than 2.6M.The logic here is to set a very low baseline, but still "usable" in the field.

Now, a dh does not play in the field. So, should we compare him to a 3e0 baseline? or to a 3e21 2b baseline---which would be similar to a 3e14 lf considering the higher cost of errors in the outfield?

There is something arbitrary. I decided that dh should be compared with the lower baseline level, so my own appreciation is then that the relative value of Cano's fielding compared to Cruz should be 3.7M, and not 2.6M. In either case, we're pretty far from 5M.

Thank you everyone for your input. I do now think that 5MIL is closer to right than wrong.

I would not put Cruz in RF though as a 5 range its like playing while crawling around on all fours.

Thanks, Mike

I respect the analysis of the others.

I think Cano is overpriced and with all the depth at 2B I could not see myself paying for Cano, even at a high cap.

Boy, SOM obviously thinks Cano's range is among the best in the league, even at his slightly advanced age (by baseball standards). I can remember Cano being a 3 for many years with the Yankees.

According to the game Cano has better range than Dee Gordon, Brian Dozer, Brandon Phillips, Darwin Barney, Jose Altuve, Miguel Rojas and Logan Forsyth.