- Posts: 423
- Joined: Sat Nov 07, 2015 9:49 pm
- Location: Pittsburgh, PA
Interested, but not as a commish.
Reminds me of a league playing with cards with friends as a kid in the 80’s. We played a few (20-30 game) seasons in reverse chronological order. So we played ‘86, then ‘85, ‘84, etc. Of course the older players got younger and better and the ‘86 stars got worse and disappeared after their rookie season, of course. The career arcs were eerily similar (generally speaking) to moving forward. Always an interesting fact that stuck in my head and I’d think about as I see real MLB players age.
There are a few like Pujols and ARod that have long tails on the end of their career, but most, especially pitchers, seem to have a bell curve that takes 3-4 years to peak then stay at peak 2-4 years then tail off over the next 3-5. Plenty of exceptions and rates of ascent and decent varies with all players. Just a model that got pressed on me as a kid and stuck with me. Probably some better statistical analysis exists that I can look up, but not worth my time.