Matt Joyce picked off
Posted:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 7:48 am
by pjcoff
Matt Joyce pinch hits, singles and is picked off. He has a 2 to get a lead and splits of 20-6. He has no pickoff on the 2020 card. Are there different rules used in 365 than regular super advanced? Did he not get the lead and decided to go on the backside number 6 and they construe that as a pickoff as opposed to a Caught stealing?
Re: Matt Joyce picked off
Posted:
Fri Apr 23, 2021 6:22 pm
by milleram
I set all players with that particular steal rating to "do not steal" (2/- 20-6)
They are more likely to get picked off than steal the base--in this case a pickoff does not count as a caught stealing.
I will attempt to explain but it is somewhat convoluted----
the 2 roll to get the lead is 1/36 chances (or 2.77%) then catchers and pitchers arms apply if he does happen to roll a 2.
but with the 20 sided die added in there is a 2/20 (10%) chance the regular dice rolls will be ignored--5% is a pickoff attempt (a roll of 1), and 5% is a balk possibility (a roll of 2)--if it is a pickoff there is a 70% chance he will be picked off (the second number in the steal rating is the safe chances--in this case 1-6, or 30% safe/70% out. 5% * 70% out = 3.5% pickoff.
In this case it is 2.78% to get a lead and 3.5% to get picked off--and the 2.78% is not 100% safe at 2B either.
A player with a 3/- 20-6 is just 5.55% to get a lead and the 3.5% to get picked off, so that's not all that great odds. It usually has to be at least a 4 lead chance for me to consider letting them steal at all.
checking the "do not steal" box in hitters preferences will stop the steal attempts and pickoffs. If the batter has the * rating he will still be held no matter how you set the "do not steal" box.
from Strat rules--super advanced -- search under "Stratomatic rules" on internet-- not all Super Advanced rules apply to On-line--but this one obviously does.
(24.1) When rolling for a lead, also roll the 20-sided die along with the two colored dice.
A. If the 20-sided die roll is 3-20, discard the 20-sided die and continue normally with the Supplementary Stealing System. (If a steal is attempted, you will need to roll the 20-sided die again.)
B. If the 20-sided roll is 1, the runner attempting the lead may be picked off. Refer to the runner's second steal success rating (in parentheses) and roll the 20-sided again. If the number rolled is less than or equal to the runner's rating, the runner dives back safely, but has failed to achieve his good lead.
If the number rolled is higher than the runner's rating, the runner has been picked off (statistically, this does not count as a time caught stealing).
Re: Matt Joyce picked off
Posted:
Sun Apr 25, 2021 8:27 pm
by pjcoff
Thanks for that info. We do not use that rule in our F2F league. I was unaware.
Thanks,
Paul