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dice rolling is way off
Posted:
Thu Jul 15, 2021 10:46 pm
by michaelrobb11
to the gent who suggested i read a book on stats......yet another player reported 15 staight rolls on the pitchers card. if he is seeing this and i am seeing this , then there is something wrong with the dice rolling mechanism in 365. as i said before,
i have rolled over 15000 games in 53 years and havent come close to 15 straight rolls on the batter or the pitchers card.
Re: dice rolling is way off
Posted:
Fri Jul 16, 2021 10:48 pm
by J-Pav
If you roll 75 times a game times 15,000 games, you get 1,125,000 total rolls. The odds of a 50/50 toss coming up the same 15 times in a row is .00003025.
So over your lifetime of games example, you should (statistically speaking) see this happen about 34 times. This is assuming simple fair dice rolls, untilted by fatigue rules. When you add in the heavy dice, I’m sure the odds change quite a bit.
Some other fun threads are throwing a no hitter and losing (this has happened many times) and both pitchers throwing a no hitter in one game (that has happened once, that I witnessed). It’s highly unlikely there’s something uniquely wrong with the game engine. Except for the thing where the same player gets injured on your other teams on the same night. That struggle is real.
Re: dice rolling is way off
Posted:
Sat Jul 17, 2021 12:52 am
by Palmtana
J-Pav wrote:..... Except for the thing where the same player gets injured on your other teams on the same night. That struggle is real.
Accounts of this happening have been posted over the years yet I haven't seen anyone post instances.
I know you play
A Lot. Has it happened to you over 2....3.....teams. I respect your opinion more than anyone on matters of Strat so your comment is intriguing.
Is there a way to prove your claim? A stickied thread where managers post when it happened to them?
It would be nice to determine if this "glitch" is bona fide.
Re: dice rolling is way off
Posted:
Sat Jul 17, 2021 1:07 am
by J-Pav
Totally tongue in cheek!
No, I don’t think it’s a glitch of any kind, it’s just one of those things that seemed to happen so many times to me in the past, I COULD NOT accept it to be happening by random chance.
Just like 15 heads in a row.
Re: dice rolling is way off
Posted:
Sat Jul 17, 2021 1:20 am
by J-Pav
In defense of the conspiracy theory aspect of that particular glitch, I do think it is possible that earlier versions of the game engine possibly ran the same string of random numbers for games each night. However, it’s quite clear that that is no longer the case, as the rolls are posted for each game and they are completely unique to each individual game.
Thus, ‘the same guy injured across teams’ thing never happens (at least never seems to) anymore. But there was a time, I’m quite convinced, against all logic, that it happened way too frequently to be random chance.
Re: dice rolling is way off
Posted:
Sat Jul 17, 2021 1:24 am
by Palmtana
And here I thought I had a research project. Give me a
next time you make a false claim!
I still think you are a fine poster.
Re: dice rolling is way off
Posted:
Sat Jul 17, 2021 10:42 am
by J-Pav
Re: dice rolling is way off
Posted:
Sat Jul 17, 2021 12:12 pm
by keyzick
My favorite conspiracy theory is when poorly performing managers say the game is rigged for whomever is doing well.
Re: dice rolling is way off
Posted:
Mon Jul 19, 2021 11:11 am
by paul8210
I never liked that once upon a time it seems like one person from SOM explained pitcher fatigue tilted dice rolls to one person but was never obligated to explain it to everyone in the form of "365 rules" or Wikipedia.
It's caused so many people to think they're getting ripped off by unfair dice rolls.
A third category of dice rolls, "fatigue-influenced category" is needed to supplement the stat display of hitter/pitcher rolls, with an accompanying footnote of explanation.
Re: dice rolling is way off
Posted:
Wed Jul 28, 2021 1:24 pm
by paul8210
15 straight rolls on the pitcher's card suggests the rolls were not fatigue-influenced since those rolls are displayed as having landed on the hitter's card.
So, this "15 straight on the pitcher's card" certainly does seem more unusual (though not impossible, as noted by J-Pav) than first suspected.