Strat-O-Matic Baseball 365

what would you say regarding how long (how many games) it should take for luck to eventually even out ?....pro gamblers, poker players, know that there are slumps, peaks, valleys, etc, but better card play will eventually make a difference as beginner or bad player's luck (and yours) even out.......is there a watermark for this kind of luck with HAL ?

these are my main bugaboos, are these common, or just my bad luck ?

1) whenever my best bats are up and especially with RISP, the dice outcome seems to be greatly imbalanced towards landing on pitchers cards

2) my great hitting teams get dominated much more than one would expect, and then to balance out their season stats, HAL gives them one game (after torching the squad with horrible luck for 10-20 game stretches) with mega-offense, total overkill, where the team wins like 15-3, completely unneeded

3) just insane amount of DPs hit into, seemingly averaging 2-3 a game, and my offense doesn't seem to have so many guys that are bad at that

instead of Murphy Brown comedy, it's more like Murphy's Law horror story, where while watching the replay, it's just like "something bad is going to happen, just don't know what it is yet".....the pitcher wild pitches or balks when they aren't bad at it, lite hitting nobodys (for power) like Aparicio or Carew hitting multiple HRs in one game, on their card

just wondering how long (my season is almost over) this continues or needs more time to even out, does this happen to other GMs for multiple seasons in a row ?......shouldn't some of this even out during a 162 game season, or is that wishful thinking ?

thank you all replies and help

I think 250 - 300 games based upon my experience in face to face strat. I had a Todd Helton card that hit 330/410/570 one season and 220/340/400 the next. exact same card but over the course of two seasons it is relatively close to what you might expect. Remember that we are using the (12 team league) 48 best starters, 96 best defenders, etc so your pitchers wont put up numbers as good as they did in real life against a much more diluted league and your hitters wont perform as well against this set of much better pitching than they saw in real life.

Bill James addresses the question in his Ball Park League of how many at bats are necessary for an actual batting average to reliably represent a predicted batting average. The link to the article is below and some of the article is excerpted below that. It takes a lot of at bats, way more than a season.

Reliable and Unreliable Batting Averages

https://www.billjamesonline.com/a_relia ... g_average/

By Bill James
August 22, 2022

The question I am getting to is, how many at bats does it take before a player’s batting average becomes a reliable statement of his underlying ability? How reliable is a player’s batting average (as an indicator of his true ability) after 100 at bats, or 200 at bats, or 500 at bats?

What do you think of as a full season’s worth of at bats? How about 550? 550 at bats is about what regular gets in a season, isn’t it? How reliable is the batting average at that point?

At 550 at bats the batting average is 51% reliable as an indicator of what the player should hit, but the average hitter is still 14 points away from where he should be—meaning, of course, that he is exactly on target sometimes and 30 points off sometimes. If a player hits .330 one year and .285 the next the media will give you explanations for it, but it doesn’t really mean anything; it’s just random fluctuation. It’s just something that happens. The chip shots and line drives caught by the shortstop don’t even out in 550 at bats. It takes more than a season for that to happen.